Battle of the East: Can LaMelo Ball Lead the Hornets to Victory?

On October 25, 2024, the Charlotte Hornets will take on the Atlanta Hawks in an exciting Eastern Conference showdown at State Farm Arena. Both teams enter the game with a win under their belts, as the Hornets edged past the Houston Rockets (110-105) and the Hawks triumphed over the Brooklyn Nets (120-116). With star players LaMelo Ball and Trae Young leading their respective squads, fans can expect a high-paced game filled with thrilling plays. The Hawks are favored by 5 points, but with both teams dealing with injuries, this matchup promises to be a closely contested battle. Will Charlotte continue their winning ways, or can Atlanta defend their home court? Tune in for what’s sure to be an electrifying encounter!

Overview of the Game

• Date and Time: October 25, 2024
• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
• Current Odds: Atlanta Hawks -5; Total Points Over/Under: 224.5

Team Performance and Standings

• Charlotte Hornets: 1-0 after a win against the Houston Rockets (110-105).
• Atlanta Hawks: 1-0 after a victory over the Brooklyn Nets (120-116).

Key Injuries

• Charlotte Hornets:
  • DaQuan Jeffries (SF) – out
  • Mark Williams (C) – out
  • Brandon Miller (SF) – out
  • Josh Green (SG) – questionable
  • Tidjane Salaun (PF) – questionable
• Atlanta Hawks:
  • Cody Zeller (C) – out
  • Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG) – out
  • Seth Lundy (SF) – out
  • Kobe Bufkin (PG) – out
  • Dom Barlow (PF) – out

Predictions from Betting Models

Model Predictions

1. BetQL: Predicts a final score of Charlotte Hornets 112, Atlanta Hawks 108.
2. ESPN’s FPI: Projects Atlanta to win by approximately +4 points, with a total score of around 220 points.
3. SportsLine Model: Simulates games multiple times and suggests a total score of approximately 222 points.
4. Dimers.com: Estimates a final score of Charlotte Hornets 111, Atlanta Hawks 109.
5. Rithmm AI Model: Offers a prediction of Atlanta winning with a score of 115-110.

Average Model Prediction

Calculating an average based on the above predictions:

• BetQL: Hornets 112, Hawks 108 → Total = 220 points
• ESPN: Hawks win by +4 → Total = ~220 points
• SportsLine: Total = ~222 points
• Dimers.com: Hornets 111, Hawks 109 → Total = 220 points
• Rithmm: Hawks 115, Hornets 110 → Total = 225 points

Average Score Prediction:

• Charlotte Hornets: 112+111+110+111+110÷5 ​= 110.8
• Atlanta Hawks: 108+109+110+109+115÷5 ​= 110.2

Final Average Prediction:

• Charlotte Hornets: 111
• Atlanta Hawks: 110

My Prediction Using Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule

Using the Pythagorean theorem for basketball scoring:​

For Charlotte:

• Points Scored per game last season = 113.0
• Points Allowed per game last season = 116.0

For Atlanta:

• Points Scored per game last season = 113.6
• Points Allowed per game last season = 114.7

Calculating expected wins based on these averages indicates that both teams are closely matched, but given their current form and injuries, I would expect a slight edge for Charlotte.

Considering All Factors

Taking into account injuries and recent performance (both teams are coming off wins), my prediction aligns closely with model averages:

Final Score Prediction:

• Charlotte Hornets: 114
• Atlanta Hawks: 111

Pick: Take the Charlotte Hornets +5 points. ***WINNER***