The Houston Astros and Miami Marlins wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday, August 6, 2025, in what could be another high-scoring affair at loanDepot Park. The Astros, sitting comfortably in 1st place in the AL West, have dominated the first two games, outscoring the Marlins 15-5 combined. Meanwhile, the Marlins, clinging to 3rd in the NL East, are desperate to salvage a win and stay in the Wild Card conversation.
This matchup presents an intriguing clash of strengths and weaknesses. The Astros boast one of the league’s most potent offenses, even with Yordan Alvarez sidelined, while the Marlins have struggled with consistency, particularly in their starting rotation. With both teams turning to back-end starters—Spencer Arrighetti (likely a bullpen game) for Houston and Janson Junk for Miami—runs could come early and often.
Injuries have played a major role in shaping this series. The Astros are missing multiple key pitchers, including Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr., forcing them into a patchwork pitching approach. The Marlins, meanwhile, are without Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer, leaving them vulnerable against a deep Houston lineup.
Beyond the stats, this game carries playoff implications. The Astros are looking to solidify their division lead, while the Marlins need every win to keep pace in a tight NL Wild Card race. Will Miami’s home-field advantage make a difference, or will Houston’s relentless offense prove too much once again?
In this preview, we’ll break down:
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Pitching matchups and bullpen impact
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Key injuries and how they affect each team’s strategy
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Offensive trends and recent performances
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Weather and ballpark factors that could influence scoring
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Historical head-to-head trends between these clubs
Top 5 MLB AI Betting Model Predictions (Average)
| Model | Predicted Runs (HOU) | Predicted Runs (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| BetQL | 5.1 | 3.8 |
| ESPN | 4.9 | 3.6 |
| SportsLine | 5.3 | 3.4 |
| PECOTA | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| FanGraphs | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| Average | 5.02 | 3.6 |
AI Models’ Average Prediction: Astros 5.02 – Marlins 3.6 (~8.6 total runs)
My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)
Key Factors:
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Pythagorean Win Expectation (2025 Season):
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Astros: 642 RS / 542 RA → Expected Win% = 0.584
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Marlins: 558 RS / 567 RA → Expected Win% = 0.492
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Astros have a clear edge in run differential.
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Strength of Schedule (Last 30 Games):
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Astros faced top-10 offenses (avg. 4.8 RA/G).
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Marlins faced bottom-10 offenses (avg. 4.3 RA/G).
→ Astros’ offense is battle-tested; Marlins’ stats may be inflated.
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Pitching Matchup:
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Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 4.62 ERA, 1.32 WHIP (injured, replaced by bullpen game).
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Janson Junk (MIA): 4.89 ERA, 1.41 WHIP.
→ Both teams may rely on bullpens early, favoring Astros’ deeper pen (3.68 ERA vs. Marlins’ 4.12 ERA).
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Injuries & Trends:
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Astros missing Yordan Alvarez (big blow) but still have Tucker/Abreu.
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Marlins missing key SPs (Garrett/Meyer), weakening rotation.
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Astros won last 2 games vs. Marlins by 5+ runs each.
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Final Custom Prediction:
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Astros 5.4 – Marlins 3.3 (~8.7 total runs).
Combined Prediction (AI Models + Custom Model)
| Source | Predicted Runs (HOU) | Predicted Runs (MIA) | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI Average | 5.02 | 3.6 | 8.62 |
| Custom Model | 5.4 | 3.3 | 8.7 |
| Combined | 5.21 | 3.45 | 8.66 |
Final Combined Score Prediction: Astros 5 – Marlins 3
Pick
- Take the Houston Astros +101 Moneyline. ***LOSE***
Key Notes:
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Monitor Astros’ bullpen usage (Arrighetti scratched).
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Marlins’ Janson Junk is prone to blowups (5.89 ERA last 5 starts).
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Trend: Astros are 7-3 last 10 vs. NL East teams.
