Astros Look to Extend Streak Against Battered Blue Jays

Date:  Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Time: 7:07 p.m. ET

Arena: Rogers CentreToronto, ON

Tonight’s MLB game between the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays promises to be an exciting encounter filled with strategic play and intense competition. With the Astros on a hot streak and the Blue Jays dealing with key injuries, the dynamics of this game are unique and worthy of a closer look. This analysis will delve into the current form of each team, the statistics of the starting pitchers, and the batting averages, ultimately explaining why betting on under 8.5 total runs is the best move for this matchup.

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have been on a roll, winning 10 of their last 11 games, a testament to their well-rounded performance. Their offense has been particularly impressive, with key contributions from players like Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena. Alvarez’s power hitting and Pena’s consistent batting have been pivotal in their recent successes. Additionally, the Astros’ defense has been solid, helping them secure crucial wins.

• Current Form: The Astros’ winning streak highlights their ability to perform under pressure and maintain consistency. Their 3-1 record on the current road trip further exemplifies their adaptability and resilience.
• Batting Average: The team boasts a batting average of .255, indicating a robust offense that can produce runs efficiently. This average, combined with timely hitting, has been a significant factor in their winning streak.
• Key Players: Alvarez and Pena have been standout performers, but contributions from Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman cannot be overlooked. These players have ensured that the Astros maintain offensive pressure throughout their games.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have had a mixed run lately, with injuries adding to their woes. The absence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Isiah Kiner-Falefa due to injuries is a significant setback. Guerrero, in particular, has been a crucial player for the Blue Jays, and his injury disrupts their offensive balance.

• Current Form: The Blue Jays are 2-3 in their current homestand and have lost 10 of their past 13 games. This slump is partly due to their inability to capitalize on key scoring opportunities, as seen in their recent loss to the Astros where they loaded the bases twice but failed to score.
• Batting Average: Despite their struggles, the Blue Jays maintain a respectable batting average of .258. However, the absence of Guerrero’s bat may impact their run production in this game.
• Key Players: With Guerrero and Kiner-Falefa out, the team will rely heavily on players like Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio to step up. The Blue Jays will need these players to fill the offensive void and contribute defensively.

Starting Pitchers

The pitching matchup tonight features Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti and Toronto’s Jose Berrios. Both pitchers have had impressive performances recently, and their stats suggest a low-scoring game.

• Spencer Arrighetti (Houston Astros):
  • ERA: 5.68
  • WHIP: 1.32
  • Recent Form: Arrighetti has shown flashes of brilliance, as evidenced by his career-high 10 strikeouts in seven scoreless innings against the Colorado Rockies. This performance highlights his potential to dominate on the mound.
• Jose Berrios (Toronto Blue Jays):
  • ERA: 3.38
  • WHIP: 1.12
  • Recent Form: Berrios has been reliable for the Blue Jays, with his latest outing against the New York Yankees resulting in a win after he allowed just two runs over seven innings. His consistent performance will be crucial for the Blue Jays tonight.

Models’ Predictions for Total Runs:

1. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Ratings: 7 total runs
2. PECOTA: 8.2 total runs
3. Davenport: 5.5 total runs
4. FanGraphs’ Steamer: 6.7 total runs
5. ZiPS: 8.3 total runs

Why Betting Under 8.5 Total Runs is a Smart Choice

Given the current form of both teams and the pitching matchup, under 8.5 total runs is the most logical choice. Here’s why:

• Strong Pitching: Both Arrighetti and Berrios have demonstrated their ability to control games and limit scoring. Arrighetti’s recent performance against the Rockies and Berrios’ consistency suggest a pitching duel that could keep the run count low.
• Injuries Impacting Offense: The Blue Jays’ injuries, particularly to Guerrero, will likely hamper their run production. Without one of their key hitters, the Blue Jays may struggle to score against a solid Astros defense.
• Houston’s Recent Form: While the Astros have been winning, they have relied on timely hitting rather than overwhelming offensive output. This trend, combined with facing a strong pitcher in Berrios, indicates that they may not score heavily.
• Historical Performance: In their recent encounters, both teams have had games where scoring has been limited. Considering their current form and the importance of this game, a cautious approach from both sides is expected.
• Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule: Using the Pythagorean theorem to estimate expected runs based on runs scored and allowed, coupled with the strength of schedule, supports a prediction of under 8.5 runs. This aligns with our models’ average prediction, reinforcing the underbet.

Conclusion

Tonight’s game between the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays is set to be a closely contested battle with a strong emphasis on pitching. With both teams bringing capable starters to the mound and the Blue Jays dealing with key injuries, the conditions are ripe for a low-scoring game. Betting under 8.5 total runs is supported by statistical analysis, recent performance trends, and the models’ predictions. This informed pick provides a solid opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the dynamics of this intriguing matchup.

PICK: under 8.5 total runs LOSE