Astros Aim for 11th Straight Win as Rangers Seek Redemption

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Date: Saturday, July 13, 2024

Time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Arena: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX

The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are set to clash in what promises to be an electrifying game at Minute Maid Park. This matchup isn’t just another game on the MLB calendar; it’s a thrilling encounter between two rivals with plenty at stake. With the Astros riding a ten-game home win streak and the Rangers looking to shake off their first-half struggles, this game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair.

Houston Astros: Dominating at Home

The Astros have been on a tear at Minute Maid Park, winning ten straight home games. They haven’t lost on their home turf since mid-June, and they’re showing no signs of slowing down. This streak has helped them put a disappointing 2023 season behind them, where they finished with a sub-.500 record at home. Currently, the Astros are 28-19 at Minute Maid Park, demonstrating their home-field advantage.

Houston’s offense has been potent, led by stars like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Altuve’s power has been on full display, and his performance against the Rangers’ starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi earlier this season, where he hit two solo homers, is a testament to his hitting prowess. The Astros’ lineup is built to score runs, and they have been doing so consistently.

Texas Rangers: Searching for Consistency

The Rangers have had a turbulent season so far, struggling to find consistency, especially on offense. They are currently ranked eighth in the American League in batting average (.243), slugging percentage (.384), and OPS (.694), which is a significant drop from last season when they led the league in these categories. However, they have key players like Marcus Semien and Corey Seager who can turn the game around with their bats.

Texas is coming off a tough loss in the series opener, but they have the talent to bounce back. Semien and Seager’s performance in the first game of the series, where they combined for five of the team’s seven hits, shows they can be the catalyst for the Rangers’ offense.

Starting Pitchers: Arrighetti vs. Eovaldi

Spencer Arrighetti:

• Stats: 4-7, 5.96 ERA
• Recent Form: Over his last ten starts, Arrighetti has been inconsistent, going 3-3 with a 5.10 ERA. His most recent outing saw him allow two runs on seven hits over five innings.
• Matchup History: This will be Arrighetti’s first career start against the Rangers, adding an element of unpredictability to his performance.

Nathan Eovaldi:

• Stats: 6-3, 3.10 ERA
• Recent Form: Eovaldi has been solid, logging seven innings in each of his last three starts. His overall recent form includes a 5-1 record with a 3.00 ERA over his past ten starts.
• Matchup History: Eovaldi has struggled against the Astros historically, with a 3-5 record and a 4.73 ERA in 11 career starts against them. In his last outing against Houston, he gave up five runs, including two homers, over six innings.

Team Batting Averages

• Texas Rangers: .260
• Houston Astros: .255

These averages indicate that both teams have the capability to produce runs, especially in a hitter-friendly park like Minute Maid.

Top 5 MLB Prediction Models

• FanGraphs – Steamer: 9.3 total runs.
• FiveThirtyEight:  10.6 total runs.
• Baseball Prospectus – PECOTA: 9.2 total runs.
• DRatings:  8.5 total runs​ (Donchess Ratings)​.
• SportsLine – The Predictalator: 8.4 total runs.

Why Over 8.5 Total Runs?

Several factors point towards a high-scoring game:

1. Home Field Advantage: The Astros have been dominant at home, scoring runs in bunches during their ten-game win streak. Their confidence at Minute Maid Park is palpable, and their hitters are seeing the ball well.
2. Starting Pitchers’ Vulnerability: Both Arrighetti and Eovaldi have shown they can give up runs. Arrighetti’s inconsistency and Eovaldi’s struggles against the Astros set the stage for offensive fireworks.
3. Offensive Trends: The Astros’ offense is in great form, and the Rangers, despite their struggles, have the firepower to keep up. Key players like Altuve, Alvarez, Semien, and Seager are all capable of big performances.
4. Recent Performances: The recent trend in games involving these teams suggests higher scoring. Both teams have shown they can put up runs, and their recent games have often exceeded similar run totals.
5. Model Predictions: Combining predictions from top models like FanGraphs’ Steamer, FiveThirtyEight, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, DRatings, and SportsLine’s The Predictalator, the average prediction for this game is 8.5 total runs. My analysis, factoring in additional elements like recent trends and player performance, suggests the actual total could exceed this number.

Final Thoughts

Taking all these factors into account, picking over 8.5 total runs is the most logical and informed choice for this afternoon’s game. The combination of strong offensive capabilities, the vulnerability of the starting pitchers, and the recent scoring trends all point towards a game that could easily see more than 8.5 runs.

So, gear up for an exciting game at Minute Maid Park, where the Astros and Rangers are likely to light up the scoreboard.

Enjoy the game, and here’s to hoping for a thrilling, high-scoring affair!

PICK: over 8.5 total runs LOSE