As the New Year Approaches, Seton Hall and Xavier Battle for Bragging Rights and Their First Conference Win

The upcoming NCAA basketball clash between the Seton Hall Pirates and Xavier Musketeers promises to be a thrilling encounter as both teams search for their first Big East victory of the season. With both squads struggling, this game is crucial for momentum as they head into the heart of conference play.

Date: Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Time: 3:00 PM ET

Arena: Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH

Will Xavier break their losing streak at home, or can Seton Hall pull off an upset? Let’s dive into the details.

Current Form: Seton Hall Pirates

Seton Hall enters this matchup with a record of 5-8 overall and 0-2 in the Big East. The Pirates have been mired in a four-game losing streak, including close losses against Georgetown (61-60) and Villanova. Their recent performances have highlighted significant offensive struggles, averaging only 60.9 points per game, which ranks them near the bottom of Division I basketball.

Key Statistics

• Scoring: 60.9 PPG (347th nationally)
• Field Goal Percentage: 39.7%
• Rebounding: 34.5 RPG
• Assists: 11.1 APG
• Turnovers: Averaging more turnovers than assists, with key players struggling to create scoring opportunities.

Isaiah Coleman has emerged as the leading scorer for Seton Hall, averaging 13.9 points per game along with 5.0 rebounds. However, the team has struggled to find consistent scoring options outside of him and Chaunce Jenkins (11.5 PPG). Coach Shaheen Holloway has voiced frustration over his team’s inability to close out games and generate offense, particularly in crucial moments.

Current Form: Xavier Musketeers

On the other side, Xavier comes into this game with an 8-5 record but is also winless in Big East play at 0-2. The Musketeers have faced a tough schedule recently, losing three straight games to ranked opponents by a combined total of just ten points. Their last outing was a narrow defeat against No. 9 Marquette (72-70), showcasing their competitiveness despite missing key players.

Key Statistics

• Scoring: 79.6 PPG (13th nationally)
• Field Goal Percentage: 46.9%
• Rebounding: 35.9 RPG
• Assists: 17.5 APG
• Turnovers: 11.7 TPG

Xavier’s offensive efficiency is bolstered by standout player Ryan Conwell, who averages 16.2 points per game and has been a consistent threat from beyond the arc (41% from three-point range). However, the absence of Zach Freemantle due to injury has left a noticeable gap in their frontcourt depth and scoring ability.

Notable Injuries

Injury concerns are significant for both teams:

• Xavier: Zach Freemantle is out indefinitely with a knee injury, which has impacted their rebounding and scoring capabilities.
• Seton Hall: While they currently have no major injuries reported, their struggles stem from inconsistent play rather than injuries.

Why I Pick the Over on Total Points (132.5)

Given the current dynamics of both teams, I believe betting on the over at 132.5 total points is a sound strategy for several reasons:

1. Xavier’s Offensive Firepower: Despite recent struggles, Xavier boasts one of the most potent offenses in college basketball, averaging nearly 80 points per game. Their ability to score quickly and efficiently makes them capable of pushing the total points higher.
2. Seton Hall’s Need for Offense: Seton Hall has been underwhelming offensively this season but is aware that they need to improve to compete effectively in this matchup. With Coleman and Jenkins leading the charge, they could find ways to exploit Xavier’s defense.
3. Recent Trends and Prediction Models:
   • Prediction models such as KenPom and Bart Torvik project scores around:
     • KenPom: Xavier 76 – Seton Hall 66
     • Bart Torvik: Xavier 75 – Seton Hall 67
     • BPI (Basketball Power Index): Xavier 77 – Seton Hall 68
     • Sagarin Ratings: Xavier 78 – Seton Hall 69
     • Haslametrics: Xavier 74 – Seton Hall 70

   These projections consistently indicate that both teams will score above their recent averages, leading to a total well above the set line of 132.5.

4. Historical Matchup Dynamics: In previous encounters between these two teams, games have often seen higher scoring totals due to fast-paced play and offensive strategies employed by both coaches.

Predicted Final Scores

Taking all factors into account, here are my predicted scores based on statistical models:

• Xavier Musketeers: 76
• Seton Hall Pirates: 66

This prediction supports the overbet and highlights Xavier’s ability to capitalize on their home-court advantage while Seton Hall attempts to find their footing offensively.

Conclusion

As we approach this exciting matchup between Seton Hall and Xavier, it’s clear that both teams are eager for a breakthrough win in conference play. While Xavier holds the edge in offensive efficiency and home-court advantage, Seton Hall will be looking to disrupt that narrative with a strong performance.

The over at 132.5 total points seems like a prudent choice given both teams’ current trajectories and scoring capabilities. With high stakes on both sides, expect an engaging contest filled with momentum swings and critical moments that could ultimately define their seasons moving forward.

PICK: over 132.5 total points WIN