Get ready for an electrifying showdown as the Memphis Tigers head to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers! This matchup is set to be a thrilling encounter, pitting two teams with contrasting styles against each other. Memphis, known for its high-octane offense, will challenge Virginia’s methodical and disciplined approach. As both teams look to solidify their standings, fans can expect a game filled with intensity, strategic plays, and plenty of excitement.
With the stakes high and both squads eager for a win, let’s dive into what makes this matchup so compelling. We’ll explore each team’s current form, key statistics, notable injuries, and ultimately why the over on total points is the smart bet for this game.
Date: Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Arena: John Paul Jones Arena Charlottesville, VA
Current Form: Memphis Tigers
The Memphis Tigers come into this game with an impressive 8-2 record. They recently secured a thrilling overtime victory against then-No. 16 Clemson, showcasing their resilience and ability to perform under pressure. This win was crucial for their confidence, especially after a surprising loss to Arkansas State earlier in the month.
Memphis has been scoring at a remarkable pace, averaging around 80.4 points per game while boasting an effective field goal percentage of 46.7%. Their offensive efficiency rating sits at 114.6, indicating they can put points on the board quickly and efficiently. Key players like PJ Haggerty, who leads the team with an average of 23.0 points per game, have been instrumental in driving their offensive success.
However, it’s not all smooth sailing for the Tigers. Their defense has shown vulnerabilities, allowing opponents to score an average of 76.6 points per game with a defensive rating of 109.1. This inconsistency on the defensive end could be a critical factor against a disciplined Virginia team that thrives on capitalizing on mistakes.
Current Form: Virginia Cavaliers
On the other side of the court, the Virginia Cavaliers have had a mixed season thus far with a record of 6-4. They are coming off a solid win against Bethune-Cookman, where they showcased their defensive prowess by holding their opponent to just 41 points. Virginia has built its identity around strong defense this season, allowing only 60.2 points per game and maintaining an impressive defensive rating of 94.3.
Offensively, however, the Cavaliers have struggled to find their rhythm at times. They average around 60.2 points per game with an effective field goal percentage of approximately 45%. Isaac McKneely leads the team in scoring with an average of 12.9 points per game but has not consistently found support from his teammates in terms of scoring.
Virginia’s ability to control the tempo will be crucial in this matchup. They prefer a slower pace that allows them to set up their defense and limit scoring opportunities for their opponents. This style contrasts sharply with Memphis’s fast-paced approach and could lead to an intriguing battle of wills.
Key Statistics
Memphis Tigers
- Points Per Game: 80.4
- Effective Field Goal Percentage: 46.7%
- Offensive Efficiency Rating: 114.6
- Defensive Points Allowed: 76.6
- Turnover Rate: 13.6 turnovers per game
- Rebounding: Average of 32 rebounds per game
Virginia Cavaliers
- Points Per Game: 60.2
- Effective Field Goal Percentage: 45%
- Defensive Efficiency Rating: 94.3
- Defensive Points Allowed: 60.2
- Turnover Rate: 11.5 turnovers per game
- Rebounding: Average of 30 rebounds per game
Notable Injuries
Injuries can significantly impact any game’s outcome, and this matchup is no exception. Virginia’s starting point guard Dai Dai Ames is uncertain due to a sprained ankle sustained earlier in December against SMU. His absence would be felt in both ball handling and scoring ability, making it more challenging for Virginia to execute their offense effectively.
Memphis appears to be relatively healthy heading into this matchup, which gives them an advantage as they aim to build on their recent success.
Why I’m Picking the Over (Total Points: Over 129)
Given the analysis above, I’m confidently picking the over on total points set at 129 for this matchup between Memphis and Virginia.
Predicted Scores
Based on five respected NCAA basketball prediction models—KenPom, Sagarin Ratings, Bart Torvik, Haslametrics, and BPI—the predicted scores are as follows:
- KenPom: Memphis 74 – Virginia 68
- Sagarin Ratings: Memphis 75 – Virginia 70
- Bart Torvik: Memphis 76 – Virginia 69
- Haslametrics: Memphis 73 – Virginia 67
- BPI: Memphis 75 – Virginia 71
These predictions consistently suggest that both teams will score enough points to push the total over the set line of 129.
Reasons for Picking Over
- Memphis’s Offensive Firepower: The Tigers have demonstrated they can score in bunches against various opponents this season. With their offensive efficiency rating above average and key players like Haggerty stepping up consistently, they are likely to contribute significantly to the scoreboard.
- Virginia’s Defensive Approach: While Virginia boasts a strong defense, they may struggle against Memphis’s up-tempo style if they cannot control the pace of play effectively. If Memphis can dictate tempo early on, it could lead to higher-scoring opportunities.
- Potential for Fast Breaks: If Memphis manages to force turnovers or secure rebounds quickly after missed shots from Virginia—who tend to shoot lower percentages—they could capitalize on fast-break opportunities that lead to easy baskets.
- Historical Matchup Trends: In past meetings between these two teams, scoring has often exceeded expectations when both teams are fully engaged offensively.
- Injury Impact on Virginia’s Offense: The potential absence of Dai Dai Ames could lead to increased pressure on other players like McKneely and Saunders to score more frequently, which might result in higher overall point totals as they adapt.
In conclusion, as we gear up for this exciting clash between Memphis and Virginia, all signs point toward an engaging battle that could see both teams exceed expectations offensively—especially if Memphis can maintain its momentum and exploit any weaknesses in Virginia’s lineup due to injuries or lack of depth in scoring options.
So grab your snacks and settle in. This matchup promises not only thrilling basketball action but also plenty of scoring excitement as both teams vie for crucial victories!
PICK: over 129 total points LOSE
