Basketball fans, mark your calendars for an electrifying Southeastern Conference (SEC) showdown as the Ole Miss Rebels take on the Arkansas Razorbacks this Wednesday, January 8, 2025, at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Arkansas. This clash brings together two teams with contrasting results in their league openers but equally high stakes as they battle for early-season SEC dominance.

Date: Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Time: 8:00 PM ET

Arena: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR

Let’s dive into the details and break down why this matchup promises to be both intriguing and unpredictable.

Current Form: How Do the Teams Stack Up?

Ole Miss Rebels

The No. 23 Ole Miss Rebels (12-2, 1-0 SEC) come into this game riding the momentum of a gritty 63-51 home win against Georgia. While their offense showed some inconsistency in the first half of that game, their defense shone, holding Georgia to just 29.3% shooting from the field and a meager 11.1% from beyond the arc. This defensive effort was further highlighted by 10 steals and 10 blocks, showcasing the team’s ability to stifle opponents effectively.

Key players like Matthew Murrell and Jaemyn Brakefield continue to be pivotal for Ole Miss, each contributing 15 points in the win against Georgia. Sean Pedulla’s steady scoring average of 14.1 points per game, combined with contributions from Jaylen Murray and Dre Davis, ensures that the Rebels have a balanced attack. However, their reliance on defensive intensity means their offensive output can sometimes lag, particularly against tougher opponents.

Arkansas Razorbacks

The Arkansas Razorbacks (10-4, 0-1 SEC) are coming off a humbling 76-52 loss to top-ranked Tennessee. Coach John Calipari openly criticized his team’s performance, particularly their rebounding effort, as Arkansas was outrebounded 52-29. This glaring weakness left them struggling on both ends of the floor, leading to an abysmal 20.7% shooting from beyond the arc.

Despite the loss, Arkansas boasts talented scorers like Adou Thiero, who averages 16.9 points per game, and Boogie Fland, who contributes 15.6 points and 5.9 assists per game. The Razorbacks’ ability to bounce back at home, coupled with their history of success at Bud Walton Arena, could give them an edge in this matchup. However, their recent struggles with rebounding and shooting efficiency are concerning as they prepare to face Ole Miss’s tenacious defense.

Key Statistics to Watch

Offensive and Defensive Ratings

Ole Miss Rebels: Ranked in the top tier defensively, Ole Miss has consistently limited opponents to low field goal percentages. Their offensive efficiency, while solid, has been overshadowed by their defensive prowess.
Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas’s offense is capable of explosive runs, but their inconsistency and reliance on three-point shooting can be problematic. Defensively, they’ve been average, struggling against elite teams like Tennessee.

Tempo and Pace

Ole Miss prefers a slower, more methodical tempo, which allows them to control the game and capitalize on their defensive strengths. In contrast, Arkansas thrives on a faster pace, relying on quick transitions to generate scoring opportunities. This clash of styles could significantly influence the total points scored.

Rebounding and Turnovers

Rebounding has been a weak spot for Arkansas, as seen in their loss to Tennessee. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has shown improvement in controlling the boards and forcing turnovers, which could be decisive in a close game.

Notable Injuries

Ole Miss Rebels: No major injuries were reported. Their primary rotation remains intact, giving them stability heading into this matchup.
Arkansas Razorbacks: The Razorbacks have been dealing with minor injuries to key players, which could impact their rotations and overall effectiveness. Any further updates closer to game time will be critical to monitor.

Why I Pick the Under 148.5 Total Points

Several factors make the under 148.5 total points the most logical choice for this game:

Defensive Strengths

Ole Miss is one of the best defensive teams in the SEC, as evidenced by their performance against Georgia. Their ability to limit opponents’ shooting percentages and force turnovers is likely to stifle Arkansas’s offense, especially if the Razorbacks continue to struggle with rebounding and three-point shooting.

Contrasting Tempos

Ole Miss’s preference for a slower tempo will likely dictate the pace of the game. By controlling possession and limiting Arkansas’s transition opportunities, they can keep the game low-scoring. Arkansas’s recent performance against Tennessee also suggests they may struggle to find their offensive rhythm.

Historical Trends and Advanced Metrics

Using five respected prediction models (KenPom, Sagarin Ratings, Torvik, Haslametrics, and Bart Torvik), the average projected score for this game is:

Arkansas Razorbacks: 74
Ole Miss Rebels: 69
Total Points: 143

This projected total falls well under the 148.5 line, reinforcing the under as the optimal pick.

Recent Performance and Trends

In their last five games, both teams have been involved in low-scoring contests, with Ole Miss averaging 67 points and allowing 58, while Arkansas has averaged 71 points and allowed 66. These trends suggest a tight, defensive battle rather than a high-scoring shootout.

Key Matchups

The Razorbacks’ struggles with rebounding and shooting efficiency could be exacerbated by Ole Miss’s defensive pressure. Additionally, Ole Miss’s balanced scoring attack may prevent Arkansas from exploiting mismatches, further limiting the scoring potential.

Final Thoughts

This game between the Ole Miss Rebels and Arkansas Razorbacks has all the makings of a tightly contested SEC battle. With Ole Miss bringing defensive intensity and Arkansas looking to bounce back at home, the stage is set for an exciting matchup.

However, the combination of Ole Miss’s defensive prowess, Arkansas’s recent struggles, and the contrasting tempos strongly supports the under 148.5 total points as the best pick. Expect a hard-fought game with both teams grinding for every basket, ultimately resulting in a low-scoring affair.

PICK: under 148.5 total points WIN