Saturday’s matchup at Chase Field features the Boston Red Sox as slight road favorites (-117) against the Arizona Diamondbacks (-102). The run line sits at 1.5, while the total has been set at 9. Both computer models and independent analysis provide different perspectives on how this game could play out.
AI Model Projections
Several major sports betting AI models have weighed in on the contest:
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ESPN / FOX Sports (Data Skrive): Diamondbacks 6, Red Sox 5
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OddsShark Computer: Boston 4.6 – Arizona 4.6 (projected tie)
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Dimers.com Simulations: 50% win probability for each team
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SportsLine: Model projections available to subscribers (not public)
When averaging the available numeric predictions, the models collectively forecast Arizona 5.2, Boston 4.5, pointing to a slight Diamondbacks edge and a total nearing 9.7 runs, suggesting value on the Over.
Independent Analysis
From a statistical standpoint, Boston carries the advantage. Using the Pythagorean theorem for expected winning percentage, the Red Sox hold a .573 mark (701 runs scored, 605 allowed), while the Diamondbacks sit at .517 (702 RS, 678 RA). Strength of schedule also favors Boston, with a .503 SOS compared to Arizona’s .494.
Pitching Matchup:
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Boston sends Lucas Giolito, who has been in strong form, recently posting 8 shutout innings and another 6-inning, 1-run outing.
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Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt, who owns a 5.33 ERA in 2025 and has shown inconsistency throughout the year.
Bullpen/Staff Edge: Boston holds a staff ERA of 3.78 (6th in MLB), compared to Arizona’s 4.45 (23rd), providing a notable advantage.
Injury Impact:
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Arizona remains without Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (torn ACL) and ace Corbin Burnes (60-day IL).
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Boston recently placed reliever Jordan Hicks on the IL but may soon regain outfielder Wilyer Abreu from rehab.
Venue and Trends: Chase Field typically plays near neutral in run scoring. Arizona did post a 10–5 win on Friday night, but overall Boston’s depth and pitching matchup tilt the balance.
Final Pick
PICK: Boston Red Sox −117 (Moneyline) (LOSE)
While the model consensus slightly favors Arizona, independent evaluation—factoring in pitching, bullpen strength, and injuries—gives Boston the edge. A projected score of Red Sox 5, Diamondbacks 4 aligns closely with the posted total, making the moneyline the stronger betting angle.
