Date: Friday, July 5, 2024
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
Arena: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
The MLB season is a long and winding road, and every game can be a turning point for teams struggling to find their form. The Angels and Cubs have had their ups and downs, and this game represents an opportunity for both to reset and make a push as the season progresses. Whether you’re a fan of the game or a bettor looking for an edge, this analysis will provide valuable insights into why the under 10.5 total runs is a smart play for this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels come into this game with a record of 45-40, showcasing a decent performance throughout the season. However, they’ve struggled to maintain consistency, particularly in July. Their offense has been relatively strong, averaging 4.9 runs per game with a team batting average of .258. Key players like Shohei Ohtani have been instrumental in their offensive production. Despite their strengths, the Angels have faced challenges, especially with key injuries, such as Anthony Rendon, which has impacted their lineup stability.
Key Player to Watch: Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani, a dual-threat player, has been exceptional both as a pitcher and a hitter. His contributions on the mound and at the plate make him a vital player for the Angels. As a pitcher, he holds a 3.07 ERA with 145 strikeouts in 98 innings, demonstrating his ability to dominate opponents.
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs, currently in last place in the National League Central with a record of 40-45, have had a rollercoaster season. The Cubs were once leading the division but have seen a significant downturn in their performance since mid-May. Despite their struggles, they have shown resilience in certain games, with notable performances from players like Ian Happ. Their offense averages 4.5 runs per game with a team batting average of .245.
Key Player to Watch: Ian Happ
Ian Happ has been a beacon of hope for the Cubs. His ability to hit crucial home runs and provide offensive spark has been invaluable. Happ’s recent performance, hitting a pair of three-run homers against the Phillies, highlights his potential to impact the game significantly.
Starting Pitchers
Los Angeles Angels: Griffin Canning
Griffin Canning, with a record of 3-8 and an ERA of 4.71, will take the mound for the Angels. Canning has had a tough season, particularly in June, where he lost his first four decisions of the month. In his most recent outing, he gave up five runs (four earned) on six hits in six innings against the Detroit Tigers. Canning’s struggles this season could be a pivotal factor in this afternoon game, especially against the Cubs’ lineup.
Chicago Cubs: Justin Steele
Justin Steele, with a record of 0-3 and a solid ERA of 3.20, will be pitching for the Cubs. Despite his lack of wins, Steele has shown consistency, pitching six or more innings in each of his past five starts. His ability to limit runs and maintain a strong WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) of 1.15 indicates his potential to keep the Angels’ offense in check.
Batting Averages
Los Angeles Angels
- Team Batting Average: .258
- Runs Per Game: 4.9
The Angels have a robust lineup, with several players capable of producing runs. However, key injuries and recent struggles have hampered their overall performance.
Chicago Cubs
- Team Batting Average: .245
- Runs Per Game: 4.5
The Cubs’ offense has been inconsistent, but they have shown flashes of brilliance. Their recent victory against the Phillies, where they scored 10 runs, highlights their potential to turn the game around.
Prediction Models
- FanGraphs: Total runs predicted – 9
- Baseball-Reference: Total runs predicted – 8
- TeamRankings: Total runs predicted – 10
- FiveThirtyEight: Total runs predicted – 8
- OddsTrader: Total runs predicted – 8
Why Under 10.5 Total Runs is the Better Bet
- Strong Starting Pitchers: Both Canning and Steele, despite their win-loss records, have the capability to deliver strong performances. Steele’s consistency and Canning’s potential to bounce back could result in a low-scoring game.
- Inconsistent Offense: Both teams have shown inconsistencies in their offensive output. The Angels’ recent struggles in July and the Cubs’ up-and-down season indicate that scoring may be limited.
- Key Injuries: The absence of key players like Anthony Rendon for the Angels could limit their offensive production, contributing to a lower total runs outcome.
- Weather Conditions: The weather forecast for Chicago suggests partly cloudy conditions with a slight wind blowing out to left field. While this could slightly favor hitters, the impact is not expected to be significant enough to push the total runs over 10.5.
- Historical Data and Trends: Historical performance and trends indicate that both teams have been involved in several low-scoring games this season. Considering their current form and the pitchers on the mound, a high-scoring game seems less likely.
Conclusion
The game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field presents an intriguing matchup. With Griffin Canning and Justin Steele starting, both teams have the potential to limit runs.
The Angels’ and Cubs’ inconsistent offenses, coupled with key injuries, further support the prediction of a low-scoring game. By analyzing the teams, pitchers, and other influencing factors, it’s clear that betting on under 10.5 total runs is a sensible and informed choice.
PICK: under 10.5 total runs WIN
