The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Angels wrap up their three-game series on Sunday, July 13, 2025, at Angel Stadium, with both teams looking to gain momentum before the All-Star break. The Angels have taken the first two games (6-5, 10-5), showcasing their offensive firepower, while the Diamondbacks hope to salvage the finale and avoid a sweep.

Pitching Matchup: Merrill Kelly vs. José Soriano

Arizona sends veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly to the mound, looking to steady the ship after back-to-back losses. Kelly has been a reliable arm this season, posting a 3.82 ERA with solid command, but he’ll need to navigate an Angels lineup that has been heating up. On the other side, José Soriano gets the ball for Los Angeles. The hard-throwing righty has shown flashes of dominance but has struggled with consistency, carrying a 4.10 ERA into this start. If he can limit walks and keep the ball in the park, the Angels’ offense might provide enough support.

Key Storylines to Watch

Angels’ Offensive Surge – Over the past two games, Los Angeles has put up 16 runs against Arizona’s pitching, with contributions up and down the lineup. Can they keep it going against Kelly?
Diamondbacks’ Injury Woes – Arizona is missing several key pieces, including catcher Gabriel Moreno and multiple bullpen arms (Ryan Thompson, A.J. Puk). Their depth will be tested.
Bullpen Concerns for Both Teams – The Angels are without Robert Stephenson and Ben Joyce, while Arizona’s relief corps is also shorthanded. Late innings could be unpredictable.
Playoff Implications? – Both teams are hovering around .500, and while neither is a clear contender, a series sweep could provide a psychological boost heading into the second half.

Recent Form & Trends

The Angels have won five of their last ten, showing signs of life after a midseason slump.
The Diamondbacks have lost three straight, with their pitching staff allowing 6+ runs in each game.

Final Thoughts Before First Pitch

With warm weather in Anaheim and both lineups showing power potential, this game could come down to which pitching staff blinks first. Will the Angels complete the sweep, or can Arizona’s veterans rally to steal one on the road?

AI Model Predictions

Model	Predicted Score (ARI-LAA)	Total Runs
BetQL	4.2 – 5.1	9.3
ESPN	4.0 – 5.3	9.3
SportsLine	3.8 – 5.5	9.3
Other Model 1	4.1 – 5.0	9.1
Other Model 2	4.3 – 5.2	9.5
Average	4.1 – 5.2	9.3

My Custom Prediction (Using Advanced Metrics)

1. Pythagorean Theorem (Expected Win-Loss Based on Runs Scored/Allowed)

ARI: Runs Scored = 4.3/gm, Runs Allowed = 4.7/gm → Pythag Win% ≈ 46%
LAA: Runs Scored = 4.8/gm, Runs Allowed = 4.9/gm → Pythag Win% ≈ 49%
Slight edge to LAA, but close.

2. Strength of Schedule (SOS-Adjusted Performance)

ARI: Tougher schedule (facing more top-10 offenses).
LAA: Easier schedule, but injuries hurt depth.
Adjustment: LAA slightly overperforming due to weaker opponents.

3. Starting Pitcher Analysis

Merrill Kelly (ARI): 3.82 ERA, 1.22 WHIP (solid but not dominant).
José Soriano (LAA): 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (struggles with command).
Edge: Kelly slightly better, but bullpens are depleted (ARI missing Thompson, Puk; LAA missing Stephenson, Joyce).

4. Injuries & Trends

ARI: Missing key relievers (Beeks, Thompson) and catcher Moreno (defensive downgrade).
LAA: Missing Rendon (batting) and key relievers (Stephenson, Joyce).
Trend: LAA won last 2 games vs ARI (6-5, 10-5), hitting well.

5. Park Factors & Weather

Angel Stadium: Slightly pitcher-friendly, but warm weather (balls carry better).
Total (9): High, but justified given recent scoring trends.

Final Custom Prediction:

ARI 4.3 – LAA 5.0 (Total: 9.3)

Combine AI Models + Custom Prediction

Source	ARI Score	LAA Score	Total
AI Models	4.1	5.2	9.3
My Model	4.3	5.0	9.3
Average	4.2	5.1	9.3

Pick

Take the Los Angeles Angels -111 Moneyline. ***LOSE***