On March 25, 2025, the North Texas Mean Green (26-8, 15-5 AAC) will face the Oklahoma State Cowboys (17-17, 7-14 Big 12) in the NIT quarterfinals at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Oklahoma. The Cowboys enter as slight home favorites (-1.5) with a moneyline of -117, while North Texas sits at -103, with the total set at 138.5.
This matchup presents a classic contrast in styles: North Texas thrives on elite defense and efficient scoring, while Oklahoma State pushes tempo and relies on volume scoring. Let’s break down the key factors that will decide this game and identify the best betting angles.
Team Performance and Statistical Breakdown
North Texas Mean Green
- Recent Form: 8-2 in their last 10 games, averaging 67.5 PPG and allowing just 61.0 PPG.
- Defense: Ranked third nationally, giving up only 59.9 PPG and holding opponents to 41.1% shooting.
- Offense: Efficient but methodical, shooting 45.3% overall and averaging 6.9 three-pointers per game.
- Rebounding: Holds a +4.1 rebounding margin, limiting second-chance opportunities.
- Turnovers: A solid +1.6 turnover margin, emphasizing disciplined play.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Recent Form: 5-5 in their last 10, scoring 74.8 PPG but surrendering 82.2 PPG (-7.4 scoring margin).
- Offense: Relies on transition scoring, averaging 10.4 steals per game and shooting 42.9%.
- Defense: Vulnerable, allowing 82.2 PPG and giving up 8.8 threes per game.
- Rebounding: Struggles against higher-paced teams, averaging just 30.6 defensive rebounds per game.
- Turnovers: Slightly positive at +1.2, but can be careless under pressure.
Key Player Matchups
Oklahoma State
- Bryce Thompson (G, 12.9 PPG): Shooting 61.1% in recent games, he’s their go-to scorer.
- Jamyron Keller (G, 1.3 3PM last 10 games): A capable perimeter shooter who will be key in stretching North Texas’s defense.
- Abou Ousmane (F, 18 points last game): A crucial interior presence who needs to be effective on the boards.
North Texas
- Atin Wright (G, 14.9 PPG): The Mean Green’s most reliable scorer, he will be tasked with attacking Oklahoma State’s porous defense.
- Latrell Jossell (G, 18 points, 50% shooting last game): A hot hand from deep who could exploit the Cowboys’ three-point defense.
- Rubin Jones (G, defensive anchor): A lockdown perimeter defender who could neutralize Thompson.
Coaching & Game Strategy
North Texas will look to control the pace, slow the game down, and grind out possessions. Their ability to limit transition buckets and force Oklahoma State into a half-court game will be critical.
Oklahoma State, on the other hand, will push tempo, create fast-break opportunities off turnovers, and look to overwhelm North Texas with their athleticism. If they can force early turnovers and turn them into easy points, they have a path to victory.
Home/Away Splits
- Oklahoma State at Home: 12-3 record, thriving in front of their crowd.
- North Texas on the Road: A strong away team that has proven resilient in hostile environments.
Pace of Play & Three-Point Shooting
- Oklahoma State Pace: High-tempo, transition-heavy attack.
- North Texas Pace: Slow, methodical half-court sets.
- Three-Point Edge: North Texas is the better shooting team (36.2%), while Oklahoma State allows 8.7 threes per game.
Advanced Metrics & Strength of Schedule
- North Texas Defensive Efficiency: Among the best in the nation, proving they can dictate low-scoring affairs.
- Oklahoma State’s Tough Schedule: The Cowboys have faced stiffer competition in the Big 12, but their inconsistency raises concerns.
Public Betting Trends & Line Movement
- Oklahoma State Opened at -1.5: The close spread suggests an even matchup.
- Public Betting Slightly Favoring Oklahoma State: Likely due to home-court advantage.
Situational Factors
- Motivation: Both teams are fighting for an NIT semifinal berth, ensuring max effort.
- Fatigue: No back-to-backs, so both teams should be fresh.
- Revenge Factor: No recent meetings, so no past grudges.
Final Prediction & Best Bets
Projected Final Score:
North Texas 68, Oklahoma State 65
Confidence Level: High
Recommended Bet:
✅ North Texas +1.5 (-110) – Their elite defense should keep this game close, and their disciplined play gives them an edge late in tight games.
✅ Player Prop: Atin Wright Over 14.5 Points (-115) – He’s North Texas’s top scorer and should have ample opportunities against Oklahoma State’s leaky defense.
Key Factors to Watch
- Can North Texas Dictate the Tempo? If they can keep Oklahoma State out of transition, they have a strong chance of winning outright.
- Three-Point Shooting Battle: If North Texas hits their average from deep, they could take control early.
- Bryce Thompson’s Efficiency: If he struggles against North Texas’s defense, Oklahoma State may have trouble generating consistent offense.
Final Thoughts
This game presents an intriguing battle between Oklahoma State’s fast-paced attack and North Texas’s methodical, defensive approach. While the Cowboys have the home-court advantage, North Texas’s disciplined style and elite defense should give them the edge in a close game. Expect a defensive grind where every possession matters, making the under and the spread on North Texas strong value bets.
North Texas advances to the NIT semifinals in a low-scoring battle.
