The matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium is one of those intriguing mid-August games that can set the tone for the final stretch of the MLB season. With the Dodgers currently holding a slight edge in the standings, they’re set to face the Pirates, who are looking to make a late-season push. Both teams are underdogs in different contexts, with the spread set at 1.5 and the total over/under at 8. We’ll break down this matchup using top MLB prediction models and our analysis to provide the best possible pick for the game.
The Top 5 Successful MLB Prediction Models
Before diving into the game specifics, let’s examine the top five MLB prediction models currently recognized for their accuracy and reliability:
- FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Ratings: A model based on the Elo rating system that adjusts for factors such as recent performance, strength of schedule, and player injuries.
- BaseRuns (FanGraphs): A model that assesses teams’ expected runs scored and allowed, giving a more granular view of offensive and defensive capabilities.
- PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus): A projection system that simulates the rest of the season based on individual player performances and team dynamics.
- BetQL: A betting model that uses historical data, key trends, and public betting information to predict outcomes.
- SportsLine Projection Model: A comprehensive model that incorporates advanced analytics, simulations, and injury reports to predict outcomes and betting angles.
Understanding the Predictions
FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Ratings:
- Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Pirates 3
- Moneyline Prediction: Dodgers win
- Spread Prediction: Dodgers cover the spread
BaseRuns (FanGraphs):
- Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 5, Pirates 4
- Moneyline Prediction: Dodgers win
- Spread Prediction: Pirates cover the spread
PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus):
- Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Pirates 3
- Moneyline Prediction: Dodgers win
- Spread Prediction: Dodgers cover the spread
BetQL:
- Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 3, Pirates 2
- Moneyline Prediction: Dodgers win
- Spread Prediction: Dodgers cover the spread
SportsLine Projection Model:
- Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Pirates 2
- Moneyline Prediction: Dodgers win
- Spread Prediction: Dodgers cover the spread
Calculating the Average Prediction
To determine the best possible pick for the game, we’ll average the predictions from the five models listed above:
- Average Final Score: Dodgers 4, Pirates 3
- Average Moneyline Result: Dodgers win
- Average Spread Result: Dodgers cover the spread
My Prediction Using the Pythagorean Theorem Plus Strength of Schedule
The Pythagorean theorem for MLB (Pythagorean Expectation) is a formula that estimates a team’s expected win-loss record based on the number of runs they score and allow. The formula is:
Win Percentage=Runs Scored2Runs Scored2+Runs Allowed2\text{Win Percentage} = \frac{\text{Runs Scored}^2}{\text{Runs Scored}^2 + \text{Runs Allowed}^2}
For this matchup, let’s assume the following:
- Dodgers: Runs Scored: 550, Runs Allowed: 450
- Pirates: Runs Scored: 470, Runs Allowed: 520
Using the Pythagorean Expectation:
- Dodgers Win Percentage: 55025502+4502≈0.600\frac{550^2}{550^2 + 450^2} \approx 0.600
- Pirates Win Percentage: 47024702+5202≈0.450\frac{470^2}{470^2 + 520^2} \approx 0.450
The Dodgers, with a higher Pythagorean win percentage, are expected to perform better in this game. Additionally, the Dodgers have had a tougher strength of schedule compared to the Pirates, which could give them an edge in a tightly contested game.
My Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 5, Pirates 3
Moneyline Prediction: Dodgers win
Spread Prediction: Dodgers cover the spread
Key Player Injuries and Trends
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw is expected to start tonight, and his dominance at Dodger Stadium is well-documented. However, they are missing key reliever Brusdar Graterol due to a forearm injury.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates are without their star outfielder Bryan Reynolds, who is nursing a hamstring injury. His absence could significantly impact their offensive output.
The Best Possible Pick
After averaging the top models’ predictions and considering my analysis using the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule, the best possible pick for the game is:
Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 4.5, Pirates 3
Moneyline Prediction: Dodgers win
Spread Prediction: Dodgers cover the spread
Given the slightly stronger offensive output predicted by the models and accounting for the Dodgers’ higher Pythagorean win percentage and strength of schedule, the Dodgers are the safer bet to not only win but also cover the spread.
PICK: DODGERS -1.5 – LOSE
