On September 21, 2024, the Arizona State Sun Devils (3-0) will face off against the Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1) at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. With Arizona State coming in as a 3.5-point underdog and a moneyline of +138, while Texas Tech holds a moneyline of -166, this matchup promises to be an exciting clash. The total points over/under is set at 58.5, indicating expectations for a high-scoring game.
Top NCAA Football Prediction Models
To analyze this matchup effectively, we will consider predictions from several successful NCAA football models:
- BetQL
- SportsLine
- Dimers
- Data Skrive
- ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI)
These models utilize various statistical methods to forecast game outcomes based on team performance metrics, player statistics, and historical data.
Model Predictions Overview
- BetQL: Predicts Texas Tech to win with a score of 34-28.
- SportsLine: Projects Texas Tech to win 37-25.
- Dimers: Estimates a close game with Texas Tech edging out Arizona State at 30-29.
- Data Skrive: Offers a score prediction of 32-28 in favor of Texas Tech.
- ESPN FPI: Gives Texas Tech a slight edge with a predicted score of 31-27.
Averaging Model Predictions
To derive an average final score prediction from these models:
- BetQL: 34-28
- SportsLine: 37-25
- Dimers: 30-29
- Data Skrive: 32-28
- ESPN FPI: 31-27
Average Score Calculation:
Thus, the average prediction is approximately 33-27 in favor of Texas Tech.
Moneyline and Spread Predictions
The moneyline odds suggest that Texas Tech has a higher chance of winning, with an implied probability of about 60% compared to Arizona State’s 40%. The spread of -3.5 indicates that Texas Tech is expected to win by at least four points.
Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule
Using the Pythagorean theorem for football, we can analyze team performance based on points scored and allowed:
For this matchup:
- Arizona State’s average points scored: $31$ (against Texas State) + $66$ (against North Texas) = $97$ total points in two games.
Points For=972=48.5
- Points allowed: $28$ (Texas State) + $21$ (North Texas) = $49$ total points.
Points Against=492=24.5 Calculating for Arizona State:
For Texas Tech: Using their average scoring from their last game against North Texas (66 points) and previous games:
Key Player Injuries and Trends
Injuries can significantly impact game outcomes:
- Texas Tech has key players like QB Behren Morton performing well with over $974$ passing yards and $10$ touchdowns this season.
- Arizona State‘s QB Sam Leavitt has shown promise but has less experience compared to Morton.
In terms of trends:
- Arizona State has covered the spread in all three games this season.
- Texas Tech struggles against the spread with a record of $1-2$.
Final Prediction
Considering the model averages, Pythagorean win probabilities, key player performances, and trends, I predict: Final Score Prediction: Texas Tech wins by a score of 33 to 27.
Best Bets
Based on this analysis:
- Pick ATS: Texas Tech -3.5
- Pick O/U: Over on total points (58.5)
- Moneyline: Bet on Texas Tech (-166)
By averaging predictions from multiple models and considering various factors such as injuries and trends, betting on Texas Tech appears to be the best option for this matchup against Arizona State.
PICK: Texas Tech Moneyline -166
