On September 21, 2024, the Arizona State Sun Devils (3-0) will face off against the Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1) at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. With Arizona State coming in as a 3.5-point underdog and a moneyline of +138, while Texas Tech holds a moneyline of -166, this matchup promises to be an exciting clash. The total points over/under is set at 58.5, indicating expectations for a high-scoring game.

Top NCAA Football Prediction Models

To analyze this matchup effectively, we will consider predictions from several successful NCAA football models:

BetQL
SportsLine
Dimers
Data Skrive
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI)

These models utilize various statistical methods to forecast game outcomes based on team performance metrics, player statistics, and historical data.

Model Predictions Overview

BetQL: Predicts Texas Tech to win with a score of 34-28.
SportsLine: Projects Texas Tech to win 37-25.
Dimers: Estimates a close game with Texas Tech edging out Arizona State at 30-29.
Data Skrive: Offers a score prediction of 32-28 in favor of Texas Tech.
ESPN FPI: Gives Texas Tech a slight edge with a predicted score of 31-27.

Averaging Model Predictions

To derive an average final score prediction from these models:

BetQL: 34-28
SportsLine: 37-25
Dimers: 30-29
Data Skrive: 32-28
ESPN FPI: 31-27

Average Score Calculation:

Average Score = (534 + 37 + 30 + 32 + 31, 528 + 25 + 29 + 28 + 27) = (32.6, 27.4)

Thus, the average prediction is approximately 33-27 in favor of Texas Tech.

Moneyline and Spread Predictions

The moneyline odds suggest that Texas Tech has a higher chance of winning, with an implied probability of about 60% compared to Arizona State’s 40%. The spread of -3.5 indicates that Texas Tech is expected to win by at least four points.

Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule

Using the Pythagorean theorem for football, we can analyze team performance based on points scored and allowed:

Win Probability = ( Points For ) ^{2} + ( Points Against ) ^{2} ( Points For ) ^{2}

For this matchup:

Arizona State’s average points scored: $31$ (against Texas State) + $66$ (against North Texas) = $97$ total points in two games.

$Points For = 2 97 = 48.5$

Points allowed: $28$ (Texas State) + $21$ (North Texas) = $49$ total points.

$Points Against = 2 49 = 24.5$ Calculating for Arizona State:

Win Probability_{A S U} = ( 48.5 ) ^{2} + ( 24.5 ) ^{2} ( 48.5 ) ^{2} \approx 2356.25 + 600.252356.25 \approx 0.797 or 79.7%

For Texas Tech: Using their average scoring from their last game against North Texas (66 points) and previous games:

Win Probability_{TT U} = ( 66 ) ^{2} + ( 21 ) ^{2} ( 66 ) ^{2} \approx 4356 + 4414356 \approx 0.908 or 90.8%

Key Player Injuries and Trends

Injuries can significantly impact game outcomes:

Texas Tech has key players like QB Behren Morton performing well with over $974$ passing yards and $10$ touchdowns this season.
Arizona State‘s QB Sam Leavitt has shown promise but has less experience compared to Morton.

In terms of trends:

Arizona State has covered the spread in all three games this season.
Texas Tech struggles against the spread with a record of $1-2$.

Final Prediction

Considering the model averages, Pythagorean win probabilities, key player performances, and trends, I predict: Final Score Prediction: Texas Tech wins by a score of 33 to 27.

Best Bets

Based on this analysis:

Pick ATS: Texas Tech -3.5
Pick O/U: Over on total points (58.5)
Moneyline: Bet on Texas Tech (-166)

By averaging predictions from multiple models and considering various factors such as injuries and trends, betting on Texas Tech appears to be the best option for this matchup against Arizona State.

PICK: Texas Tech Moneyline -166 (WIN)