Baseball, at its core, is a game of matchups. And on Wednesday afternoon in Phoenix, we have a pitching duel that, on the surface, might tempt bettors to lean towards the Under. However, a deeper dive into the recent performances, underlying statistics, and situational factors reveals a compelling case for the Over 7.5 runs. This isn’t just about two All-Star arms; it’s about a confluence of trends that point towards a higher-scoring affair than initially anticipated.
The Pitching Paradox: Skenes’ Brilliance vs. Gallen’s Struggles
The marquee attraction is the clash between Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Both have All-Star Game starts to their name in recent seasons, but their current trajectories are starkly different.
Paul Skenes: The Unbreakable Rookie Wall? Skenes (3-5, 2.36 ERA) has been nothing short of sensational in his rookie campaign. His ERA of 2.36 over 68.2 innings is elite, complemented by a remarkable 0.95 WHIP and a healthy 3.89 K/BB ratio. He’s consistently made quality starts, doing so in eight of his 11 appearances, including seven of his last eight. The young right-hander has surrendered just four home runs all season, with the last three coming in a single outlier outing on May 1st. Skenes’ ability to limit hard contact and keep the ball in the park is a significant strength. His recent outing against the Phillies, where he tossed eight innings of one-run ball, even though a hard-luck loser, showcased his dominance. Even against the Diamondbacks previously, he gave up three runs in 5.1 innings, which, while not dominant, certainly isn’t disastrous. The concern for Over bettors here lies solely with Skenes’ ability to shut down an offense.
Zac Gallen: A Falling Star? On the other side of the mound is Zac Gallen (3-6, 5.25 ERA), whose numbers paint a concerning picture. Since his 2023 All-Star Game appearance, Gallen’s ERA has steadily climbed. This season, his 5.25 ERA is nearly two full runs higher than his career mark of 3.43. While his velocity and pitch mix remain consistent, his command has betrayed him. He leads the National League with 29 walks this season, averaging a staggering 4.2 walks per nine innings – double his 2023 average. This propensity for free passes is a huge red flag for a pitcher who relies on precision. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo acknowledges the issue, citing small misses by Gallen that savvy opponents are exploiting.
Gallen’s recent form is particularly alarming for Diamondbacks fans and Under bettors. He has given up 14 earned runs and 21 hits in his last three starts, totaling just 16 1/3 innings. This isn’t a minor blip; it’s a sustained period of struggle that indicates more than just bad luck. He’s allowing a .276 batting average over his last five outings. Even his historical 3.34 ERA in five starts against the Pirates doesn’t inspire confidence given his current struggles.
Team Dynamics and Offensive Trends
Beyond the starting pitchers, the offensive capabilities and recent trends of both teams play a crucial role in predicting the total.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Awakening Bats and Road Warriors The Pirates’ offense, while often struggling to provide run support for Skenes (averaging only 3.09 runs per game, 29th in MLB), showed a tremendous surge in their last game. Their miraculous 9-6 comeback victory against the Diamondbacks, erasing a six-run deficit with seven runs in the eighth inning, is a massive confidence booster. Bryan Reynolds, a key player to watch, had a four-hit game capped by a go-ahead three-run homer. Reynolds has been heating up, batting .361 with two homers and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. Henry Davis also contributed significantly to the comeback, going 6-for-15 with three walks over his last six games. This recent offensive explosion, while perhaps an outlier for their season average, comes at a crucial time as they face a struggling Gallen. The Pirates are clearly capable of putting up runs when they connect, and a pitcher struggling with walks can provide ample opportunities.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Offense Capable, Bullpen Concerns The Diamondbacks’ offense is more potent than the Pirates’, averaging 5.05 runs per game this season (5th in MLB). They showed their ability to build a lead in the last game, putting up six runs before their bullpen imploded. Key hitters like Ketel Marte (probable after an illness) and Corbin Carroll are always threats. Marte, in particular, has a strong history against Gallen’s current form. Their issue, however, has been their bullpen.
Bullpen Battle: A Potential Floodgate for Runs
Even if Skenes performs as expected, and Gallen continues to struggle, the bullpens are a major factor, especially considering the taxing nature of the previous game.
Diamondbacks Bullpen: The Diamondbacks’ bullpen has a full-season ERA of 5.41, which is among the worst in MLB. Their collapse in the last game, where Kevin Ginkel and Jalen Beeks couldn’t close out a six-run lead, highlights their recent vulnerability. Lovullo admitted that they “made mistakes out over the plate” and “couldn’t throw strikes in certain counts.” This unit has shown a propensity for allowing big innings, and if Gallen exits early or struggles, they will be called upon.
Pirates Bullpen: The Pirates’ bullpen holds a slightly better full-season ERA of 4.43. While they were instrumental in shutting down the Diamondbacks’ offense after the initial outburst in the last game, that was largely due to Joey Wentz’s extended, unexpected outing. Both bullpens were taxed in Tuesday’s comeback, meaning key relievers might be tired or unavailable, potentially leading to deeper outings for the starters or relying on less-used arms.
Situational Factors and Chase Field’s Influence
Chase Field: While Chase Field has a retractable roof, its park factors suggest it’s generally a pitcher-friendly park for home runs (92 HR factor in 2024), but a hit-friendly park overall (109 Hits factor). However, the run factor is 112, indicating it generally favors runs. This could negate some of Skenes’ ability to suppress homers, and certainly won’t help Gallen’s struggles with walks. The climate in Phoenix also tends to favor offense, especially with the roof open.
Momentum: The Pirates are coming off an exhilarating, franchise-record-setting comeback win. This kind of victory can ignite an offense and provide a significant psychological boost, especially for a young team. They will be playing with renewed confidence and a desire to win the series.
The Over 7.5 Wager: A Calculated Risk with Strong Upside
Considering all these factors, betting on the Over 7.5 runs appears to be a calculated and smart decision. Here’s why:
- Gallen’s Struggles: This is the most significant factor. His increased walk rate, higher ERA, and recent poor outings are undeniable. Even against a less potent Pirates offense, his inability to command the strike zone consistently will lead to baserunners and eventually runs.
- Pirates’ Recent Offensive Surge: The dramatic comeback showed that the Pirates’ offense is capable of exploding. With key players like Reynolds heating up and facing a vulnerable Gallen, they are in a prime position to build on that momentum.
- Bullpen Vulnerability: Both bullpens have shown susceptibility to giving up runs, especially the Diamondbacks’. The high-leverage innings in the late stages of the game could see a significant amount of scoring, particularly if either starter exits early. The fact that both bullpens were taxed in the previous game only amplifies this concern.
- Chase Field Factor: The park’s tendency to favor runs further tips the scales towards the Over.
- Situational Momentum: The Pirates’ recent comeback win could infuse their lineup with extra confidence, leading to more aggressive at-bats and better offensive execution.
While Paul Skenes is an elite young talent, the sheer weight of Zac Gallen’s current struggles, coupled with the potential for both bullpens to falter and the Pirates’ newfound offensive spark, creates a fertile ground for runs. Even if Skenes pitches a gem, the Diamondbacks’ offense is capable of scoring against any pitcher, and their bullpen could give up enough runs for the Over to hit.
Conclusion: Trust the Trends, Exploit the Matchup
The narrative of this game is a classic pitching matchup between a rising star and a struggling veteran. However, when we dissect the layers, the weaknesses of one pitcher, combined with the offensive potential of both teams and the fragility of their bullpens, strongly suggest that runs will be scored. The 7.5 total offers excellent value given Gallen’s current form and the renewed life in the Pirates’ bats. Don’t be swayed by Skenes’ overall stellar ERA; the path to the Over lies squarely with Gallen’s challenges and the relief arms.
Pick: Over 7.5
