Aaron Judge’s floor in the power division is unparalleled in MLB

Yankees star Aaron Judge is ending the season with 62 home runs. His previous career high was his 52 in 2017. No player since Barry Bonds, 60 he has surpassed Dinger. It’s fair to say that his raw power and game power are unmatched in the league.

That said, it’s hard to see him replicate power numbers like last season. must be Some would argue that no hitter has hit 50 home runs for many years.

But the judges are very close to that kind of floor. In fact, there’s reason to believe he’s the only true 50-homer hitter in his MLB. A player you say “if he’s healthy, he’ll probably reach a similar number of dingers every year in his prime.” This isn’t to say that other players won’t reach the 50-homer threshold once or twice, but judges will have the tools to do it consistently for a few more years. there is.

Sure, it’ll be tough for him to hit a 60+ round-tripper again, but looking at his overall performance there are encouraging signs of a potential repeat, or at least 50+ runs. Playing enough games could set a new bar for him (a notable “if” when he’s in his early 30s).

The 2022 campaign marks the third time he’s crossed 35% HR/FB, edging closer to 32.3% in his career. In other words, about a third of the judges’ fly balls go over the fence. This rate is by no means erratic compared to his usual standards.

Given that he had a career-best 43.5% fly percentage in 2022, this is the ideal scenario for him. He surpassed his 40% of his FB% three times in his career, so it’s not crazy to think he can do it again next year, 2024, and beyond. Judges place the ball in the air and often carry it over the fence when doing so.

In addition, Judge didn’t get lucky or take advantage of any erratic trends en route to his 62nd home run. If he’s healthy enough to play his 145-150 games, if he can keep his barrel rate around 25% of his, he’ll be a hitter with 50 home runs a year during his prime (or the rest of the year). could be, or even could be. 2017 and 2022.

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He will barrel 26.5% of his batted balls in 2022, leading the league, and 20.9% in his career. If he can keep it up in about a quarter of an hour like he did last season and keep similar he FB% and his HR/FB then at least he has a legitimate run at 50 dingers per season There’s no reason why you can’t. A few more years.

Remember, he’s 30 and still in his prime. Additionally, he has an athletic physique and impressive lower body strength, and has enjoyed better luck in the health department over the past few seasons.

Even projection systems tell us that judges are likely to continue smashing home runs at a very high rate in the near future. The numbers are lower than recorded in 2022. He is a ZiPS homer prorated proportionally to 700 at-bats. His projection almost exactly makes him 50 home runs.

The last few years of Judge’s contract (when he pushes 40) may be ugly, but it’s a true superstar who has continued to attack throughout the 2022 season and has continued to perform at a high level since 2017. Right now, it’s not at all crazy to expect Judges to be someone they haven’t really seen since Bonds, someone who can clear the half-century’s worth of home runs every year. .