As the New York Knicks (34-18) prepare to face the Indiana Pacers (29-22) on February 11, 2025, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, the stage is set for a compelling Eastern Conference showdown. Both teams are eager to rebound from recent losses and strengthen their positions in the playoff race.
Recent Performance and Head-to-Head Matchups
The Knicks recently suffered a significant defeat to the Boston Celtics, falling 131-104. Despite the loss, guard Jalen Brunson delivered an impressive performance, scoring 36 points. However, forward Karl-Anthony Towns struggled, contributing only nine points on 3-for-8 shooting. Forward OG Anunoby is expected to miss his fourth consecutive game due to a sprained foot. Over their last nine games, the Knicks have secured seven victories but have faced challenges against top-tier teams.
The Pacers are coming off a 124-117 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. Forward Pascal Siakam led the team with 23 points, while guard Tyrese Haliburton added 19 points and nine assists. Center Myles Turner missed the game due to a cervical strain and remains day-to-day. Indiana has been strong at home, winning 19 of their last 26 games, but has struggled with slow starts, often trailing after the first quarter.
In their two previous meetings this season, the series is tied 1-1. The Pacers won the most recent matchup on November 10, 2024, with a score of 132-121. In that game, Bennedict Mathurin scored a career-high 38 points, including seven three-pointers, and Haliburton added 35 points and 14 assists. For the Knicks, Brunson had 33 points and 10 assists, while Towns contributed 30 points and nine rebounds.
Statistical Comparison
Offensively, the Knicks rank fifth in the league, averaging 117.7 points per game, despite playing at the seventh-slowest pace. They excel in structured offense, with strong individual performances and excellent spacing. Their three-point shooting is particularly noteworthy, hitting 37.5% from beyond the arc. Defensively, they rank ninth, allowing 111.8 points per game. However, they are 23rd in rebounding, averaging 43 boards per game.
The Pacers are tenth in scoring, averaging 115.7 points per game, and play at the league’s eighth-fastest pace. They shoot 37% from three-point range but rank 21st in defensive rating, allowing 115.1 points per game. Rebounding has been a challenge, as they are 28th in the league, averaging 41.5 rebounds per game.
Injury Reports
For the Knicks, OG Anunoby is questionable with a foot injury, and Josh Hart is probable with knee soreness. Karl-Anthony Towns has been dealing with a knee issue but is expected to play.
The Pacers’ Myles Turner is a game-time decision due to a neck issue. Isaiah Jackson suffered a torn Achilles in November and is out for the season.
Coaching Strategies and Key Matchups
Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau emphasizes structured, half-court offense and strong defense. The team’s success often hinges on the performances of Brunson and Towns. The potential absence of Anunoby could impact their defensive versatility.
Pacers coach Rick Carlisle favors an up-tempo style, leveraging the team’s athleticism and depth. Haliburton’s playmaking and Mathurin’s scoring are central to their offense. If Turner is unavailable, their interior defense and rebounding could be compromised.
Home/Away Splits and Pace of Play
The Pacers have been strong at home, winning 19 of their last 26 games. Their fast-paced play could exploit the Knicks’ preference for a slower tempo. The Knicks will aim to control the game’s pace, utilizing their structured offense to limit the Pacers’ transition opportunities.
Advanced Metrics and Betting Insights
The Knicks’ effective field goal percentage is 54.3%, while the Pacers’ is 53.7%. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, with the total going over in 51 of the Knicks’ last 80 games. The current betting line favors the Knicks with a moneyline of -125, while the Pacers are at +106. The spread is set at 1.5 points, and the total is 239.5.
Predicted Outcome
Considering both teams’ offensive capabilities and recent performances, a high-scoring game is anticipated. The Knicks’ structured offense and superior three-point shooting may give them a slight edge, especially if they can control the game’s pace and limit the Pacers’ transition opportunities.
Prediction: New York Knicks 122, Indiana Pacers 118
Confidence Level: Medium
Recommended Bet: Over 239.5 total points
Player Props to Consider:
-
Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 Points: Given his recent performance and central role in the Knicks’ offense, Brunson is likely to have a significant scoring night.
-
Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists: As the Pacers’ primary playmaker, Haliburton is expected to facilitate the offense effectively, especially against a Knicks team that will look to slow down the tempo.
Key Matchups and X-Factors
Jalen Brunson vs. Tyrese Haliburton
This will be the marquee matchup of the night. Brunson has been carrying the Knicks’ offense with his scoring and playmaking, while Haliburton is one of the best facilitators in the league. If Brunson can dominate the matchup and control the pace, the Knicks will be in a strong position. On the other hand, if Haliburton can push the tempo and get his teammates involved, the Pacers’ offense could overwhelm New York’s defense.
Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Pascal Siakam
With Myles Turner questionable, Siakam may have to play more minutes at center, which would force him into a tough defensive matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns. If Turner plays, Indiana will have more rim protection, but if he sits, Towns could have a field day in the paint and on the perimeter.
Bench Impact
Indiana’s depth is a key strength, with players like Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin providing scoring off the bench. The Knicks rely heavily on their starters, so if the Pacers’ second unit can exploit New York’s bench weaknesses, it could be a significant advantage.
Situational Factors & Strength of Schedule
- The Knicks are 7-3 in their last 10 games, proving their consistency despite injuries.
- The Pacers are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but they have struggled against playoff-caliber teams.
- Indiana’s last five games included tough matchups against the Lakers, Bucks, and Nuggets, while the Knicks recently played the Celtics and Heat. Strength of schedule leans slightly in favor of the Knicks, who have performed well against stronger competition.
Public Betting Trends & Line Movement
- Early money is slightly favoring the Knicks (-125), but the spread has stayed at -1.5, indicating the books see this as a close game.
- The total (239.5) has seen increased betting on the over, aligning with the offensive firepower of both teams.
- If Myles Turner is ruled out, expect the total to rise slightly, as the Pacers’ defense will be even more vulnerable inside.
Final Betting Recommendations
- Over 239.5 total points (Both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and three-point shooting, making a high-scoring affair likely).
- Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 Points (He has been the Knicks’ offensive leader and should have another strong performance).
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists (If the Pacers push the pace, Haliburton will have plenty of assist opportunities).
- Live Betting Opportunity: If the Knicks start slow (as they have in recent games), consider betting them to win outright at a better value during the game.
Final Prediction
New York Knicks 122, Indiana Pacers 118
Confidence Level: Medium
This game should be a back-and-forth battle between two playoff contenders. The Knicks’ structured offense, three-point shooting, and slight defensive edge should help them pull away late, but the Pacers’ home-court advantage and fast-paced attack will keep things close. Expect a high-scoring, entertaining contest in Indianapolis.
