Don’t miss your chance to win $1000 in the ATS Wins countdown to kickoff giveaway
Date: Sunday, September 1, 2024
Time: 4:10 PM ET
Arena: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
As the sun sets over Chase Field, the anticipation builds for an electrifying matchup between two National League West rivals. The Los Angeles Dodgers, riding a wave of success, face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in what promises to be a thrilling contest. With playoff implications hanging in the balance, both teams are eager to prove their mettle. Can the Dodgers continue their winning ways, or will the Diamondbacks rise to the occasion and secure a crucial victory? Let’s dive into the current form of both teams, key statistics, and what to expect as they take the field.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are currently basking in the glow of a successful August, finishing the month with a commendable 19-8 record. Their recent form has been impressive, winning four straight games and 10 of their last 12. This surge has propelled them to a six-game lead in the NL West, showcasing their dominance in the division.
Key players like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman have been instrumental in this success. Ohtani, in particular, is chasing history with his quest for a 50-50 season, having already hit 44 home runs and stolen 43 bases. The Dodgers’ lineup is not just powerful; it’s versatile, capable of scoring in a variety of ways.
Arizona Diamondbacks
On the flip side, the Diamondbacks are in a bit of a tailspin. After a hot start to August with an 18-9 record, they have stumbled, losing four of their last five games. This inconsistency has put them in a precarious position as they vie for a wild-card spot. Despite their recent struggles, players like Corbin Carroll have shown flashes of brilliance, including an inside-the-park home run in a recent game.
The Diamondbacks will need to find their rhythm quickly if they hope to keep pace with the Dodgers. Their offense has the potential to be explosive, but they must find a way to convert opportunities into runs consistently.
Key Statistics
Dodgers
- Record: 82-54
- Runs Scored: 680 (leading the NL)
- Team ERA: 3.85 (solid pitching depth)
- Home Runs: 225 (ranked among the top in MLB)
Diamondbacks
- Record: 76-60
- Runs Scored: 645
- Team ERA: 4.20
- Home Runs: 183
The Dodgers’ offensive firepower is evident in their ability to score runs, while their pitching staff has been effective in limiting opponents. In contrast, the Diamondbacks have shown vulnerability on the mound, which could be a significant factor in this matchup.
Notable Injuries
Injuries can often shift the tide in baseball, and both teams have had their share.
Dodgers
- Injury Updates: The Dodgers have been relatively healthy, with key players performing at a high level. However, keeping an eye on any late-season fatigue is crucial as they approach the playoffs.
Diamondbacks
- Injury Updates: The Diamondbacks have dealt with injuries to some key players earlier in the season, but they appear to be at full strength heading into this game. This is vital for their chances, as they need all hands on deck to compete.
Why Bet the Under on Total Runs
With the over/under set at 9 total runs, the models suggest that betting the under might be the way to go. Here’s why:
- Predicted Scores from Models:
- BetMGM Model: Dodgers 5, Diamondbacks 4
- Dimers Model: Dodgers 6, Diamondbacks 3
- FanGraphs Model: Dodgers 4, Diamondbacks 3
- FiveThirtyEight Model: Dodgers 5, Diamondbacks 3
- Action Network Model: Dodgers 5, Diamondbacks 4
These predictions indicate a range of total runs that often falls below 9, suggesting a lower-scoring affair.
- Pythagorean Theorem Analysis:
The Pythagorean theorem for baseball predicts a team’s expected win percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed. The Dodgers, with their high run production and solid pitching, are expected to win, but the Diamondbacks’ recent struggles could limit scoring opportunities. This statistical approach supports the notion of a lower total score.
Matchup Analysis
Starting Pitchers
- Dodgers: Justin Wrobleski (1-1, 4.68 ERA)
- Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt (8-7, 4.31 ERA)
Wrobleski, making his sixth start of the season, has shown promise but has also faced challenges. Pfaadt, on the other hand, has been more consistent, although he struggled in his last outing. The performance of these pitchers will be critical in determining the game’s pace and scoring.
Offensive and Defensive Capabilities
The Dodgers boast a powerful offense capable of scoring runs in bunches, while their pitching staff has been effective at limiting damage. The Diamondbacks, while having the potential for explosive offense, have struggled to maintain consistency, especially against strong pitching.
Final Prediction
As the Dodgers and Diamondbacks prepare to face off, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup. The Dodgers are riding high, while the Diamondbacks are desperate to regain their footing. Given the statistical analysis, predicted scores, and the current form of both teams, it’s reasonable to expect a competitive game.
With the potential for a low-scoring affair, this bet offers a balanced approach to what promises to be an exciting game. As the teams take the field, fans can expect a thrilling contest filled with drama, skill, and perhaps a few surprises. Grab your snacks, settle in, and enjoy what should be a memorable Sunday in Phoenix!
PICK: under 9 total runs LOSE
