NFL Playoff Predictions, Picks: Giants-Eagles, Chiefs-Jaguars

Here’s a great way to spoil a good thing. Tweet something like this: Click here to see my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys side and total.

As Yogi Berra once said, you’d rather be in bed Monday morning instead of tempting fate. My Tampa Bay ATS pick was an easy loser. And the total was probably the worst beat of the season: it was over 45.5, so the game dropped to 45, four botched PAT kicks by Brett Maher, a botched 2-point conversion by the Bucks, and Tom Brady’s It was an interception in the end zone. A turnover for a down within the 10-yard line.

Anyway, I hope my 8-4 record did something to your benefit. Then we move on to what is often the best weekend of the NFL season, the divisional rounds.

Saturday

The New York Giants (+7.5) are ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles. 48 years old or older

These teams have met twice this season, including two weeks ago at Lincoln Financial Field, but I don’t think the Eagles have seen “those Giants” yet.

These Giants, who beat the Vikings 31-24 in Minneapolis last week, appear to have a dangerous dual-threat quarterback. Not long ago, the results of Big Blue’s aggressive play ranged from bad to bad. Now, when Jones approaches Sacquon Barkley with a ramp-pass option, it’s either a big chunk run for either player, or a gasp!

These Giants have Dexter Lawrence destroying the middle. The Eagles didn’t have to face him and many other Giants his starters with his 22-16 victory in Week 18 that sealed the top seed in the NFC. The Phillies covered as 14-point favorites going 19-3 going into the fourth quarter, with third-string quarterback Davis Love leading off two touchdown drives.

Four weeks ago, the Eagles stormed MetLife Stadium with a 48-22 record. Philadelphia recorded 7 of 70 sacks in that game, while Miles his Sanders tallied 144 yards and his two touchdowns.

Since that game, the Giants have gone 3-2 and 5-0 in the ATS, cementing their position as the best spread team in the NFL this season (14-4). The Eagles were his ATS, 8-9, despite a 14-3 overall record.

I don’t want to overstate the coaching here because I think the Eagles have a great staff led by Nick Siriani. Brian Daboll even said he and his men were outcoached after the first meeting. But Dabor and Wink Martindale, and Mike Kafka could also be included here, I believe, are the elite game-day minds that give their teams the best chances possible. We learned a lot from the Week 18 game and think we can apply it here.

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After the overs went 5-1 in the wildcard round, the total appears to have adjusted upwards by a few points. This is a light wind, dry, 32 degree forecast that still feels like reasonable coverage.

Eagles, 27-23

The Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. Under 53

The Jaguars’ miraculous comeback from last week’s 27-0 loss to the Chargers could spell their doom at Arrowhead Stadium.

why? It sounded the alarm bells to Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes that the Chiefs had to beat the Jaguars in 60 minutes. They know they can’t pull off the normal act of popping out on a lead and holding it. This is a trait that has made him a record 5-11-1 ATS this season.

Betting on the NFL?

The case for Point 1 is the November 13 meeting with the Jaguars in Kansas City. The Chiefs (-10) jumped out to a 20-0 lead before settling for a push at 27-17.

The Point 2 case brought shock and tears when the Chiefs’ final home playoff game, the AFC Championship against the Bengals, lost both a 21-3 lead and a Super Bowl berth.

With both coaches trying to hone their clocks to keep the ball out of the opposing QB’s hands, we’re going to try and squeeze this under the total.

Chiefs, 33-17