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What will it take for the remaining eight NFL playoff teams to make it all the way through and win the Super Bowl? If one side of the ball doesn’t reach par, or the coaching staff makes the wrong decision, that team won’t last long in January. Either way, every team has its way into the ring.
Let’s take a look at all 8 teams and see what is likely to happen if they win 3 games in a row, and what they are likely to screw up (if you’re unfamiliar with statistical terminology see this glossary).
Why they won the Super Bowl
What more can I say besides Patrick Mahomes? Mahomes is great, there’s no denying it. Right now, no one wants to put it under the center. But in his career, the Chiefs haven’t been able to put it all together in his 2019 Super Bowl playoffs outside of his season. Despite the defense being their known weakness, it’s the offense that has let them down in his two recent games. playoff loss. Sure, the defense could have gotten more stops last year after he built a 21-3 lead against the Bengals in the AFC Championship, but the offense could have gotten more stops last year. He could have scored 3 or more points in over 35 minutes of the game.
Why You Can’t Win The Super Bowl
If the Mahomes and Chiefs offense are on fire, I think they’re way ahead, so I’m not going to bicker on defense. With three losses this season, the Chiefs have scored 17, 20, and 24 points. Did. In the playoffs, if he’s looking to score 27 or more, it’s unlikely he’ll lose too many games, given that he could be on top with just three wins.
Why they won the Super Bowl
The Bills claim to be the most balanced team in the AFC playoffs as they rank 2nd in the NFL in EPA/play on offense and 7th on defense. However, injuries piled up, and the offense dropped to 7th and the defense dropped to 16th. Josh Allen suffered an elbow injury midway through, but the offense was still very good. It will be very difficult to beat. But with too many injuries to overcome, they are in a similar category to the Chiefs, but less efficient offensively.
Why You Can’t Win The Super Bowl
Allen’s struggle against Blitz continues, with the offense unable to find enough scores to take down the other strong offenses remaining. It ranks second only to Mahomes among the season’s EPA/Play eligible passers. But against five or more rushers, Allen ranks 25th among 33 eligible quarterbacks. prize.
Cincinnati Bengals
Why they won the Super Bowl
After Week 6 of the regular season, Joe Burrow ranked fourth among eligible passers in EPA/Play, and the Bengals were 10-1 in that stretch. However, up until that point, Burrow had ranked him 16th in the NFL. The offense has switched by some combination of changing the rushing scheme to make things easier and Burrow simply playing better (one reason is that he doesn’t take sacks). The Bengals have had the best performance in the league in the last three months or so, and it would be surprising if they made it to the Super Bowl last season. not.
Why You Can’t Win The Super Bowl
Like Josh Allen, Burrow has suffered a blitz in Cincinnati’s 11-1 stretch. Barrow says that if Rusher has 4 or less he is 3rd, if 5 or more he is 19th. If the gap is too great, the defense could put the team in an uncomfortable situation, and with so much firepower on the AFC playoff field, I think the team would need to score in the 30s to win. Burrow’s job of managing the offense became a little more difficult after he threw an injury to left tackle Jonah Williams in the wild card round.
Why they won the Super Bowl
They find a bit of late-season magic spotted by the aforementioned Burrow, the first overall pick quarterback in a recent second year, en route to last season’s Super Bowl.Trevor Lawrence has it all. have played exceptionally well since their bye week leading Jacksonville to a 7-1 record, including a historic comeback against the Chargers last week. During that stretch, Lawrence ranks 4th among eligible quarterbacks in the EPA/Dropback, 4th against 4 or fewer rushers, and 9th against the Blitz. We can do it, but we need to play like we did when we beat the Ravens and Cowboys, rather than a brilliant performance against the Titans in Week 18. He is playing with his arms and legs to place points on the board.
Why You Can’t Win The Super Bowl
The defense isn’t playing enough and can’t hold out the end of the negotiations. Sure, the Jags defense is above average when you look at EPA/Play this year, but the pass defense is a concern. He ranks 18th in EPA/Dropback and 19th in completion percentage against passes. When Mahomes, and then Allen or Burrow, come next, it would be nice to see more consistent success with passing. It doesn’t pair well with an eye quarterback. By comparison, last season the Bengals ranked him 11th and 13th in his EPA/Play, and had a good defensive success rate heading into the playoffs last season.
Why they won the Super Bowl
Before Jalen Hurts’ injury, the Eagles were 2nd on offense and 5th on defense in EPA/Play. It doesn’t get more balanced than that. That’s why they’re poised for their second Super Bowl victory in six seasons. The team doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses when they’re healthy. A quarterback with Hearts ability can win a lot of games, if not the best roster in the entire league.
Why You Can’t Win The Super Bowl
The only downsides to the Eagles’ scout report are their zone defense and ability to move the ball efficiently against the Blitz. Against man defense this season, the Hearts rank 3rd in EPA/Dropback among eligible passers, but that number has fallen to 21st against Zone Lux, who has four rushers. If there are less than 10, he is 5th, but if there are 5 or more rushers, he drops to 19th. Things get even worse when you can blitz while playing zone coverage. Hurts ranks him 32nd among his 33 quarterbacks eligible. If the NFC defense can combine his zone coverage with blitz well enough, Harts looks like an average quarterback and might be able to keep Philadelphia on its trajectory.
Why they won the Super Bowl
Brock Purdy does more than enough with the arsenal of weapons he has around him without making any painful mistakes. With Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle at his disposal, he should avoid leaving and let them do their best. If the offense can avoid big mistakes, the 49ers’ best defense in the league will find the end often enough to find his zone and, my guess, enough to win three games and bring Lombardy his trophy back to the Bay Area. You should be able to afford it.
Why You Can’t Win The Super Bowl
It’s often said that defense doesn’t always win championships. Teams still need offense to rack up points piles, especially in today’s NFL. Purdy certainly shows that he should have been picked earlier than the final pick in the 2022 draft, but he’s still a rookie quarterback. If teams are lined up in man coverage and he’s struggling to beat them (14th in EPA/dropback vs. man coverage) or there’s no general setback at all, the 49ers are in the next 2 It can be completed in one game.
dallas cowboys
Why they won the Super Bowl
Dak Prescott has shown consistency and one of the league’s best offenses shines. Cowboys have weapons and offensive lines. Prescott has been great most of the time when he’s healthy this season, but he can be inconsistent, and if he plays in his three games and shows his potential like he did in Tampa Bay on Monday night, he’s going to Dallas. good things will happen.
Why You Can’t Win The Super Bowl
Defense can’t beat injury, and offense can’t beat defense. The Cowboys’ defense, led by Micah Parson and Trevon Diggs, was fierce, and at one point in the season, he was considered one of the best in the NFL. But injuries, especially to the middle class, quickly became a problem. Despite a constant pressure rate, the Cowboys defense his sack rate plummeted in the final weeks of the regular season. This is an equally uncoverable secondary and the ability for the opposing quarterback to get the ball out before the vaunted pass rush goes home. The Dallas defense should return to its early season form and sack the quarterback.
Why they won the Super Bowl
Daniel Jones limits turnovers and uses his feet to keep the defense straight, as he and Sacwon Barkley deliver a barrage of explosive runs. Jones and Barkley are the strongest players on the Giants’ offense, so the pressure will be on their shoulders and legs. This was seen against the Vikings. Playing perhaps the best game of his career, Jones was consistently gaining yards on the ground, thus keeping the offense in more manageable conditions. If Jones can be as lethal as he was against Minnesota, life would be much easier for Barkley and much harder for enemy defenses. If so, the Giants would be tough out.
Why You Can’t Win The Super Bowl
The Giants are an average team due to their superior defense, and they don’t have the manpower to slow down opponents’ offenses in order to make the playoffs. Sure, beating Minnesota was impressive, but the metrics show the Vikings were an average team this season too. It will be a big step up in class. First-year head coach Brian Daball has been great this year and has taken a lot out of this roster, but despite playing on an easy schedule, the Giants are 28th in the EPA/play-on defense. The offense was a top 10 unit for that schedule, but the defense may be the reason for going home without hardware.
(Photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
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