2023 NFL Divisional Round Stats To Know: Jaguars Must Attack Downfield vs. Chiefs, Putting Pressure On Patrick Mahomes

on a weekend full of Interesting quarterback matchupIn the last eight weeks of the season, Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes both ranked in the top five in several statistical categories. and led the team to good results. After a bye in Week 11, Lawrence and the Jaguars won his six of his last seven games to win the AFC South. Mahomes and the Chiefs won seven in his last eight games to earn the coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Those strong rounds to the season came after a meeting in Week 10, when the Chiefs won 27-17. Kansas City he led 20-0, beating Jacksonville 486-315. Despite recording three turnovers, the Chiefs controlled the game throughout, and unlike last week’s game against the Chargers, Lawrence was unable to lead a comeback.

So what can the Jaguars do to maintain their magical late-season run? And what must the chiefs do to ensure a similar result to the first meeting? ? Let’s see:

Featured game | | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

when the jaguar has the ball

There are seemingly endless reasons why Lawrence has made the leap from rookie season to this second season, but none greater than his ability to completely destroy Blitzkrieg. The numbers are staggering.

In Week 10 against the Chiefs, Lawrence had a season-high five sacks, and had three in Kansas City. did not do it Blitz. Overall on the day, Lawrence scored -0.13 EPA per dropback when not blitzed (fourth worst of the season) and 0.49 EPA per dropback when blitzed. That’s right.

trend? The Chiefs happily sat down for coverage, forced Lawrence to shortstop, then stood up and tackled. Overall, Lawrence threw her 12 passes behind her line of scrimmage. This was his second-most in all games this season with just 53 yards. Here’s an example of the Chiefs dropping his 7 into coverage and Carlos reading the play perfectly he got the losing tackle by Dunlap.

It’s worth mentioning here that Chris Jones is a big reason why the Chiefs can succeed without putting too much pressure on them. A first-team All-Pro, he recorded 1.5 sacks in the Week 10 game. He finished the season with his 15.5 sacks (tying him for 4th in the NFL) and 77 quarterbacks his pressure (5th). And that’s despite Jones playing most snaps defensively in his tackle. The Chiefs have done a great job of moving him, and his 27 defensive end snaps against the Jaguars are the second most in any game this season.

One way Lawrence can counteract here is by trying to reach more intermediate routes. As mentioned earlier, Lawrence attempted a ton of passing behind the line of scrimmage against the Chiefs, but it came at the cost of an in-between throw. Only 5 of his 40 attempts (12.5%) were his 11–20 yards downfield range. Second lowest rate of the season.

But this game was something of a turning point. Over the final seven games of the season, nearly 24% of Lawrence’s throws ranged from 11 to 20 yards. Before that he was under 20%. Especially against the Chiefs, Lawrence had success at this range: 3-for-5, 44 yards, a touchdown, all three completions against the Blitz. He has to hit those throws on Saturday and keep the Chiefs’ defense from creeping too far.

Plus, expect Evan Engram to be a big part of your game plan. bottom. Since then it is up to 21.5%. Additionally, the Chiefs have allowed his nine receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season (fifth-most in the NFL for him), and his rating for passers when tight ends are targeted is his was 101.9, making him 20th in the NFL.

when the chiefs have the ball

Speaking of tight ends, it’s no surprise that Travis Kelce is in the big game. it is.

Kelse had six receptions for 81 yards (on seven targets) and a touchdown in the first meeting. More than half of his yards were on the cross route, which he spanned 46 yards in the first quarter.

This has become a big problem for Jaguar, not just tight ends. Jacksonville this season allowed him 10.2 yards on one attempt when a cross his route was targeted, his fourth-highest in the NFL. The Chiefs came up with this concept several times in Week 10, including Marquez’s Valdes touchdown to Scantling.

Mahomes is a great player, but he’s not immune to pressure. Specifically, the pressure when he’s not blitzed. Mahomes actually struggles quite a bit in these situations, considering how great an improviser he is. because about his improvisational skills.

The good news for the Jaguars is that this is one of their defense’s best features. Pressure percentage without a blitz is his sixth, and he has been unable to force one of his six interceptions this season when Mahomes has been pressured but not blitzed. I made it.

Unfortunately for Jacksonville, their turnover advantage wasn’t enough to actually challenge Kansas City in Week 10. So are the Chiefs. Coordination between both teams at the Week 10 meeting will be crucial in determining who advances to his AFC Championship.