Why Shohei Ohtani Is Going To Be MLB’s First $500 Million Player

This offseason spending rate has been frenzied and jarring, with over $2 billion lavished on the 10 most expensive free agents in less than 10 weeks. But the most interesting free agency in baseball history is still looming: 10 months later in Los Angeles, barring a last-minute contract extension with the Angels, Shohei Ohtani will open his turn to enter his market. will be And one number continues to be brought up by many who have been pondering the two-way star’s next contract.

$500 million.

5 Before the offseason, when his salary was compressed and his potential was endless, the entire industry lined up to recruit Ohtani from Japan. At the time, he was too young to be a free agent, which allowed him to meet the major league minimum requirements and control for up to six seasons. Of course, soon there will be no cap on Ohtani’s rewards. But given the outlandish expectations he’s already exceeded, some expect his market to be about as strong again. And we’re guessing Ohtani’s potential for a free agency deal developed into a fun game through his sport. A sampling of what we asked:

• A former player and current analyst predicted a new average annual value record of $45 million to $50 million to last for eight years.

• An agent, not his own, speculated on a 10-year, $430 million deal. That’s more than Aaron Judge’s recent average annual value of $40 million and even more than Mike Trout’s record guarantee of $426.5 million.

• Rival executives took note of the sheer number of long-term contracts signed this offseason, and went even further, speculating that they signed a $480 million mega deal over 12 years.

Nonetheless, some believe that these estimates may be inadequate, suggesting that if Ohtani continues on his current path and puts together a historic season anew as both a pitcher and a hitter, an unprecedented, recently imagined Not only will an unparalleled number of rounds be achieved, but perhaps even possible.

North American professional athletes have yet to reach $500 million. Perhaps the closest is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who in 2020 signed a $450 million contract extension over a 10-year period, but that deal is worth about $141 million. We only guarantee $10,000. However, there is growing belief that Ohtani could actually get there, and that everything seems set in place to make it happen.

Below, we’ve explored the three main reasons for that belief, based on conversations with executives and agents across the industry over the past few months.