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ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for January 13th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Tell a story: Any game with a big spread requires a specific story to handicap: winning big is tough in this league, but in this video game era, a double digit spread isn’t what it used to be and scores can get out of hand in a hurry. For this specific game … overs are 7-2 when the Kings are favored by more than five points, the Rockets are 7-12-1 ATS in games that go over the projected total and the Rockets are 4-8-1 ATS when getting 10-plus points. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it!
Take a stance: The Jazz and Magic both operate at an above average pace and defend at a below average level. Have the sportsbooks put this total high enough? Your answer to that question will guide you to your pick against the spread: Utah 8-2 ATS at home in games that go over and just 2-6 ATS when a home game slides under the total.
Upset state of mind: The Thunder have scored over 110 points in all six of their games in the New Year and they make for an interesting double dip (both ATS and moneyline) in this spot. The Bulls are just 5-6 outright (4-7 ATS) this season when favored by at least three points and their slower pace doesn’t project well against the up-tempo stylings of the Thunder (CHI went 0-3 ATS in December against top-10 pace teams). One more note for the road: the Thunder are 16-5 ATS (11-10 outright) when getting at least five points (which is where this line opened).
Replacing Haliburton: In a recent loss to the Knicks, Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton suffered elbow and knee injuries and will be evaluated to return to the floor in two weeks. Two widely available names to consider from the Pacers’ rotation are T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard, who both rostered in fewer than five percent of ESPN leagues. McConnell flirted with a triple-double against the Knicks and always claims one of the league’s higher steal rates. Nembhard doesn’t bring as much statistical diversity as McConnell, but can be considered in deeper formats. The key riser might just be rookie Bennedict Mathurin (50% available), who has tallied at least 18 points in six of his last eight games and should see a real uptick in touches and shots sans Haliburton.
Block Party: Atlanta’s Onyeka Okongwu has swatted multiple shots in nine of his last 12 outings and yet is still found in free agency in 80% of ESPN leagues. Facing the undermanned Pacers this evening with Clint Capela still sidelined by a calf injury, this emergent defender also has a nice path to double-double production against an Indiana team that sits 26th in rebounding percentage. Another rising rim protector to acquire ahead of tonight’s action is Utah’s rookie pivot Walker Kessler (88% available), who just posted a six-block performance earlier this week and is slated to start in place of an ailing Kelly Olynyk.
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Games of the night
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Line: Warriors (-9)
Money line: Warriors (-355), Spurs (+278)
Total: 244 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.3 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (71.2%)
Ruled Out: James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, JaMychal Green, Devin Vassell
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Zach Collins (available in 97.0% of leagues) has been quietly productive for weeks now, averaging 11.5 PPG (60.3 FG%), 6.5 RPG, 2.0 APG and 0.6 3PG in 20.6 MPG in his last 10 outings. He got a spot start last Saturday with Jakob Poeltl out and responded with 18 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists in 34 minutes, but even with Poeltl back he turned in another double-double in Memphis on Wednesday with 14 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block and 1 3-pointer in 22 minutes. –— Snellings
Best bet: Stephen Curry over 26.5 points. Curry returned on Wednesday from his long injury layoff with rust on his shot and a light minutes restriction, but still scored 24 points in 31 minutes after catching fire to score 16 in the fourth quarter alone. On Friday, Curry should be closer to his normal self and play closer to his normal minutes, against a Spurs defense that is tied for the sixth-most points allowed and the third-most 3-pointers allowed to opposing point guards. — Snellings
Best bet: Tre Jones over 21.5 points + assists. I’ve enjoyed watching Jones’ emergence this season. Over the last 10 games, he’s averaged 15.9 points and 5.6 assists. If the Spurs. This season, the Warriors have given up a lot of points to point guards. The Alamodome, a 64,000-seat dome stadium in San Antonio, Texas, will host this game. Jones will have to deliver an epic performance if the Spurs are to have any chance of winning this game. — Moody
Best bet: Keldon Johnson over 23.5 points. Johnson has stepped up further into his primary scoring option role for the Spurs, particularly since Devin Vassel’s injury. He has scored at least 22 points in each of his last five games that he didn’t have to leave early, averaging 26.4 PPG in that stretch. He did miss two games in that period due to injury, but in his return on Wednesday he dropped 24 points in Memphis. The Warriors allow the sixth-most points to opposing small forwards. –Snellings
Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers
10 p.m. ET on ESPN, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Clippers (-2.5)
Money line: Clippers (-140), Nuggets (+118)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (57.6%)
Questionable: Nikola Jokic, Bruce Brown, Jamal Murray
Ruled Out: Luke Kennard, Paul George
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Terance Mann (available in 96.0% of leagues) has started and produced in the three games since Paul George went down, averaging 12.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.3 SPG and 1.3 3PG in 33.3 MPG. Mann has scored double-digits in each of the last five games George has missed, which includes a 22 point, 11 rebound, 4 assist, 4 3-pointer performance against the Suns last month. — Snellings
Best bet: Kawhi Leonard over 26.5 points. Leonard seems to finally be settling in to his typical levels, playing upper-30 of minutes and producing around 30 points on a regular basis. This has been particularly true in games Paul George (out) has sat. In the last three games Leonard has played without George, he has scored 31, 29 and 33 points. Two of those games were earlier this week, showing he’s in the groove as he preps for another shot at the Nuggets team that blew his squad out in Denver just over a week ago. — Snellings
Breaking down the rest of the slate
New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Pelicans (-6)
Money line: Pelicans (-225), Pistons (+185)
Total: 234 points
BPI Projected Total: 232.8 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (64.3%)
Questionable: Isaiah Stewart
Ruled Out: Cory Joseph, Jalen Duren, Marvin Bagley III
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Jose Alvarado (rostered in 5.6% of ESPN leagues) should continue to be provided more minutes with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram out. He has averaged 12.6 points, 4.4 assists, and 3.4 rebounds over his last five games. This season, point guards have had a lot of success against the Pistons. Detroit ranks 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
Fantasy streamer: Killian Hayes (available in 68.6% of leagues) remains high value, worthy of nightly start consideration, since settling into his starting role after Cade Cunningham’s injury. He’s ramped it up further of late, averaging 15.2 PPG, 8.2 APG, 2.6 RPG, 2.4 SPG and 1.8 3PG in the five games since he returned from his three-game suspension.— Snellings
Fantasy streamer: Alec Burks (available in 93.5% of leagues) has been flourishing of late in his role of instant offense off the bench. He has scored at least 12 points in nine of his last 10 games, averaging 16.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.4 3PG and 0.8 SPG in 24.7 MPG during that stretch..– Snellings
Best bet: CJ McCollum over 26.5 points. I’ve been hammering the over on McCollum’s points since Zion Williamson went down, and his line has been slow to move. It finally did move up to 26.5 points, after being at 24.5 points the last few games, but his performance still outpaces this line as well. In the four games McCollum has played since Zion’s injury, he has averaged 32.0 PPG with at least 28 points in every game. On Friday, he faces a Pistons’ defense that allows the second-most points to opposing point guards. — Snellings
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Hawks (-2)
Money line: Hawks (-130), Pacers (+110)
Total: 238 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.2 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (53.3%)
Questionable: Myles Turner, Oshae Brissett, Aaron Nesmith
Ruled Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Clint Capela
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: T.J. McConnell (rostered in 6.6% of ESPN leagues) finished with 43 fantasy points on Wednesday night against the Knicks. Following Tyrese Haliburton’s early departure due to a knee injury, he had one of his best performances of the season. Haliburton will be re-evaluated in two weeks after being diagnosed with a strained left elbow and bone contusion in his left knee. McConnell is a great streamer until he returns. — Moody
New York Knicks at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, Washington D.C.
Line: Knicks (-5)
Money line: Knicks (-190), Wizards (+158)
Total: 221.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.7 points
BPI Win%: Knicks (64.9%)
Questionable: Vernon Carey Jr., Monte Morris, Daniel Gafford, Kristaps Porzingis
Ruled Out: Bradley Beal
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago, Illinois
Line: Bulls (-4.5)
Money line: Bulls (-190), Thunder (+158)
Total: 234.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.8 points
BPI Win%: Bulls (67.3%)
Probable: Zach LaVine
Doubtful: DeMar DeRozan
Ruled Out: Tony Bradley
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: TImberwolves (-5)
Money line: Timberwolves (-205), Suns (+170)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.7 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (66.9%)
Questionable: ‘Kyle Anderson, Taurean Prince, Anthony Edwards, Deandre Ayton
Ruled Out: Landry Shamet, Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Devin Booker
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Duane Washington Jr. (rostered in 1.5% of ESPN leagues) is a solid streamer for fantasy managers in deeper formats with Landry Shamet and Chris Paul ruled out due to their respective injuries. In category formats, he is a good source of points and triples. Washington Jr. has scored 20 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. — Moody
Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Line: Jazz (-5.5)
Money line: Jazz (-215), Magic (178)
Total: 233.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 232.2 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (72.3%)
Questionable: Jalen Suggs, Talen Horton-Tucker
Ruled Out: Kelly Olynyk
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Lauri Markkanen over 26.5 points. Currently, the Magic rank 21st in points allowed per 100 possessions. Additionally, Orlando allows opponents to shoot a very high effective field percentage. In seven of his last nine games, Markkanen has scored at least 26.5 points. Due to Kelly Olynyk’s injury, Markkanen should see more usage. — Moody
Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET, Golden One Center, Sacramento, California
Line: Kings (-9.5)
Money line: Kings (-455), Rockets (+345)
Total: 238 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.3 points
BPI Win%: Kings (83.3%)
Questionable: Kevin Huerter
Ruled Out: Kevin Porter Jr.
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Kenyon Martin Jr. (rostered in 2.8% of ESPN leagues) is a solid streamer against the Kings, especially with Kevin Porter Jr. out due to a left foot contusion. He has scored 30 or more fantasy points in each of his last two games in which he has played at least 25 minutes. — Moody
Best bet: De’Aaron Fox over 24.5 points. On Wednesday, Fox scored 24 points against the Rockets. This season, he has averaged 23.8 points per game. Fox may meet or exceed his season points per game average against a Rockets team that ranks 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
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