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Everybody is looking at the NBA standings in both conferences.
We’re a few years deep into the Play-In Tournament, and it’s opened up everything for a lot of teams hoping to extend their season past the 82-game campaign. Before, it was just about grabbing the top eight seeds in each conference, and if we were lucky, we’d have two or three teams in one of the conferences giving us a good playoff race at the end.
The Play-In Tournament changes that. If teams are not in the mix by mid-March, they must be bad. It’s changed the trade deadline by opening up more buyers because teams have a chance of playing deeper into April or beyond.
Let’s take this halfway point of the season as an opportunity to examine each conference. Which teams are destined to make the top-six safe zone? Which teams should end up making the top six even if it’s not a lock? Which teams are in the Play-In Tournament mix? Which teams are hanging around the periphery because they have alligator blood? And which teams are refreshing their lottery odds with our friends at Tankathon.com?
You can check out our East breakdown here. Below, we dive into the Western Conference.
(Stats/records are through Thursday’s games. Teams in each category are listed in no particular order.)
Destined for the Top Six
Denver Nuggets | 28-13 | first in the West | fourth (tied) in net rating (+4.0)
Why are we confident in them? The Nuggets have been dominant, especially as of late, winning 14 of their last 17 games. While the defense has improved during that stretch, most of Denver’s success is due to the absurd offensive production and efficiency. They have the best offense in the league. They finished sixth in the West last season, barely avoiding the Play-In Tournament, and are already off to a much better start this season. They’ll be chasing the top seed all season.
What could knock them out here? Nikola Jokić could decide tomorrow that he just wants to race horses and quit basketball forever. That is the only conceivable thing I can think of that would knock this version of the Nuggets out of the top six by the season’s end.
Should they make a move? I’d like to see them look for a little more depth. They have a seven-, maybe eight-man rotation for the playoffs. They need to make sure that’s a definite eight-man, maybe nine-man rotation. Is it worth making a deal to shake things up? Probably not. Maybe the buyout market is a better option for them.
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Memphis Grizzlies | 28-13 | second in the West | second in net rating (+5.0)
Why are we confident in them? Even if you want to doubt their postseason chances, the Grizzlies have become winning machines in the regular season. They had the second-best record in the NBA last season and are tied for the second-best record in the NBA this season. Ja Morant and his teammates have executed the game plans of Taylor Jenkins remarkably well for their still lack of experience as a group. A young team this defensive-minded is a scary thing.
What could knock them out here? This is a team that can struggle offensively, and we’ve seen key players (Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane) all miss significant games over the past two seasons. The Grizzlies do a great job of plugging and playing, but they don’t have the depth they had a year ago. But I don’t think they’re in danger of revisiting the Play-In Tournament any time soon.
Should they make a move? They need a more stable wing option than Dillon Brooks next to Bane and Morant, but they just need another wing who can create a little off the bench. Nothing dire enough to shake up the core, though.
New Orleans Pelicans | 25-17 | third in the West | fourth (tied) in net rating (+4.0)
Why are we confident in them? There is so much talent on this Pelicans team, and they’ve had all this success while Brandon Ingram has missed a lot of time. The Pelicans are one of the top offensive and defensive teams in the NBA and are the only team that is top six on both ends of the floor. Willie Green is a very good leader so early in his head coaching career, and he has a ton of depth.
What could knock them out here? Sustaining success with a young team is not always easy to do, and there are some good teams (potentially) behind them right now. A healthy Dallas, Golden State and Phoenix squad could move up the ranks with a big stretch. The Clippers are always a threat. And maybe Sacramento remains scrappy enough to get there. New Orleans should be fine, but Ingram and Zion Williamson do miss a lot of time.
Should they make a move? Absolutely not. Let this squad cook and see how they settle after a great finish to last season and a great start to this season.
Teams That Should Make the Top Six
Dallas Mavericks | 24-19 | fourth in the West | 12th (tied) in net rating (+0.9)
Why are we confident in them? Luka Dončić. The Mavericks are a quality team. They had a good run to the conference finals last season, and they’re one of the best offensive squads in the NBA. But the reason the Mavericks are dangerous is that coach Jason Kidd has helped improve some of the defensive tenets (although this season’s personnel isn’t as solid with it), while also letting Dončić do his thing. He’s turning in unfathomable stat lines nightly — like so many stars in the league can — and it’s lifting them away from the Play-In Tournament.
What could knock them out here? The defense has regressed, and I’m not sure Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie can quite replicate what Jalen Brunson meant to them offensively last season. A bad defensive stretch puts too much pressure on the offense sometimes, and Dončić can’t always be a superhero, right?
Should they make a move? They need a better running mate next to Dončić, but I can’t see that guy existing on the trade market right now. They should try to pick up another initiator and hope the offense is overwhelming to everybody.
Golden State Warriors | 20-21 | eighth in the West | 23rd in net rating (-1.1)
Why are we confident in them? The Warriors are still the reigning champs, Steph Curry is back, Klay Thompson is back offensively, and their preferred starting lineup is still dominating when they’re on the floor. That championship resolve goes a long way, and despite all of their issues to start the first half of this season, the Warriors are a good week away from fourth in the West.
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What could knock them out here? It’s easy to say “injuries” for a lot of these teams, but what we’ve seen from Curry, Thompson and Andrew Wiggins so far this season are causes for concern. This team is better than its record, but the Warriors also have earned this record by being awful on the road. If they keep trying to make these young guys play consistent championship basketball and it costs them more road games, maybe they get stuck in the Play-In Tournament.
Should they make a move? Buyout market? Yes. Trade? No. Trust the process, but Warriors style.
Phoenix Suns | 21-22 | seventh in the West | 10th in net rating (+1.6)
Why are we confident in them? As bad as the first half of the season has been, we saw what the Suns were capable of doing last season when they ran away with the top seed in the Western Conference and the best overall record in the NBA. And despite Chris Paul being bad this season, the Suns were still six games over .500 before Devin Booker started missing games. The Suns are an elite team on both ends of the floor when they’re healthy. They just need to get Booker back into the mix and they should avoid the Play-In Tournament.
What could knock them out here? On the flip side, a groin injury (Booker) is very tough to get over in the regular season, and it cannot be stated enough how horrendous Paul looked to start this season. It’s no reason to panic now, but we keep getting closer and closer to the panic zone of the season if he doesn’t correct his poor play.
Should they make a move? They need to resolve the Jae Crowder thing, so yes. Get another rotation guy for him and move on with the season.
Suns coach Monty Williams (David Richard / USA Today)
LA Clippers | 22-21 | sixth in the West | 21st (tied) in net rating (-0.9)
Why are we confident in them? The Clippers are good on the court, typically no matter whom they put on the floor. When you look at this team on paper, it looks capable of winning it all. Kawhi Leonard needs to play more, but he’s still got it when he does. Paul George is a very good second guy for them, and this team is extremely deep. There are a lot of perimeter options to throw at opponents, and I just don’t buy that they’re this bad offensively.
What could knock them out here? Themselves. The Clippers don’t have a lot of reps together as a group. And that’s not just this season. That’s over seasons. Plural. Call it injuries. Call it load management. Whatever it is, the Clippers don’t have nearly enough time on the court together to build. And with the West getting more competitive and crowded as the season goes, that lack of reps will matter more and more.
Should they make a move? They don’t have any size behind Ivica Zubac, so they should try to rectify that for postseason purposes. Against Jokić in a playoff series, they don’t have extra giants to throw at him defensively.
Teams Firmly in the Play-In Tournament Mix
Sacramento Kings | 22-18 | fifth in the West | 9th in net rating (+1.9)
What gets them into the top six? They’re currently in the top six, but even the Kings have to recognize there are some very good, much more established teams right on their heels. But the Kings are operating with a top-10 offense, just not in the NBA this season (although, yes, that’s true too). We’re talking top 10 all time, and that’s when you include that bastardized 2020-21 season that had crazy skewed numbers. Mike Brown has this team believing in fourth quarters and closing out games. There are way more talented teams, but their confidence is melding with their offensive ability right now.
Should they make a move? Surprisingly, no. This Kings squad has struggled a lot defensively, and normally, I’d suggest going and getting one of those guys. But the chemistry is brilliant right now, the offense is historic, and I think you let this squad ride out the season.
Panic meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In: With their start to the season, 1.5. We’ve seen the Kings fade before, but they’re currently top five and know their identity better than half the teams behind them.
Portland Trail Blazers | 19-22 | 11th in the West | 16th in net rating (-0.1)
What gets them into the top six? Their three-headed monster. The Trail Blazers are getting about 70 points per game from Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant. This has been an excellent trio all season long, and it’s the thing keeping their offensive rating afloat. They’re about league average on offense and league average on defense. If they can maintain this defense, the offense should end up improving the rest of the way. Having these three continue to work together is what could help them go on a run.
Should they make a move? The Blazers probably should make a move. As much as I love Jusuf Nurkić, I’m not sure riding it out with him is the best thing for maximizing this team. Maybe that’s too major of a change to make midseason, but I think a more mobile big man (Nurk is fine) would help them excel on both ends.
Panic meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In: Six. There’s a good mix here, but they have some work to do if Utah won’t gut its roster.
Minnesota Timberwolves | 20-22 | 10th in the West | 19th in net rating (-0.4)
What gets them into the top six? The Timberwolves — once they get healthy and have Karl-Anthony Towns back into the mix — have to stop pretending they have bravado and everything figured out. They need to be honest with themselves and learn how to do the little things to make up for their deficiencies. They have talent. They have skill sets. They have confidence. That’s all great. How do you make their misshapen parts fit together in a way that creates sustainable success on the floor? This franchise, for once, has to learn how to get out of its own way.
GO DEEPER
The Timberwolves need more of the desperation Anthony Edwards showed in Detroit
Should they make a move? The only move they can make is hoping to collect 10 cents on the dollar for D’Angelo Russell to get a better-fitting, more competitive point guard into the mix to finish the season. This team is handcuffed to itself and can’t make moves unless it wants to give up someone valuable like Jaden McDaniels (they don’t).
Panic meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In: Ten. This team is underperforming, and we’re not convinced they like playing together.
Hanging Around Like They Have Alligator Blood
Los Angeles Lakers | 19-23 | 13th in the West | 21st (tied) in net rating (-0.9)
What gets them into the Play-In Tournament? The Lakers can do it, but they need LeBron James to keep this going, Anthony Davis to get healthy, Russell Westbrook to keep his sixth-man role, some improved shooting, a big trade to bring in better support and Davis to not get hurt again this season. It couldn’t be more straightforward.
Should they make a move? Yes. Make the trade with Indiana. Give up the two picks. Teams mortgage their futures all the time and then find creative ways to get picks again. Do what you have to in order to make this team as interesting and as competitive as possible for the rest of this season. Quit pretending you have a plan beyond the LeBron years.
Panic meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In: 10. The passive-aggressive tweets from LeBron if they miss will be too much to handle.
LeBron James and Luka Dončić (Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)
Utah Jazz | 21-23 | ninth in the West | 12th (tied) in net rating (+0.9)
What gets them into the Play-In Tournament? Don’t make the moves we all believe they’re going to make. The Jazz have a lot of capable offensive players on the roster that a lot of teams would love to get their hands on. If the Jazz don’t send them off for future assets/draft capital, then they can compete for the top 10 in the West all season long. I think they guarantee their spot in the Play-In Tournament.
Should they make a move? Absolutely. Send away those veterans. Don’t let pride get in the way of putting yourself in a better position to win the draft lottery. They’re probably beyond guaranteeing a bottom-four record and top, shared lottery odds, but the Jazz shouldn’t just hope for an outright miracle when it comes to their lottery ball options. Send away Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley and others.
Panic Meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In: Four, but they’d only be panicked if missing it doesn’t result in winning the lottery.
Oklahoma City Thunder | 19-23 | 12th in the West | 15th in net rating (+0.2)
What gets them into the Play-In Tournament? Not bailing on the second half of the season. The Thunder have been retooling/rebuilding/tanking for a couple of seasons now, and it usually results in some mysterious absences after the trade deadline. The Thunder avoiding doing that again would empower the young roster to go after that final Play-In spot. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is good enough to put them in the mix, but we don’t know if the young guys are capable of steering them completely away from lottery bliss.
Should they make a move? No offense to Mike Muscala, but they don’t have that veteran to deal before the deadline to go for another asset. I think the Thunder stay as-is.
Panic Meter (1-10) of missing the Play-In: Eight, but I’m not sure they’re concerned about making it.
Teams Refreshing Tankathon.com
San Antonio Spurs | 13-29 | 14th in the West | 30th in net rating (-8.5)
What should they focus on this season? The Spurs probably don’t need to worry about falling out of the bottom four in the NBA, but they are within winning distance of Orlando currently. Gregg Popovich needs to just keep the focus on the young guys on the roster, develop and make sure those lottery balls give them a 14.0 percent chance at their next franchise-changing player.
Can they move a veteran for a pick? Jakob Poeltl is a very valuable veteran big man who can bring it on both ends and is a free agent this summer. He’s going to be someone you want Bird rights to if you’re looking to acquire him. The Spurs should be able to get a first-round pick for him after getting firsts for both Thaddeus Young and Derrick White at the last trade deadline.
Confidence meter (1-10) in landing top lottery odds (14 percent): 9.5
GO DEEPER
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Houston Rockets | 10-31 | 15th in the West | 29th in net rating (-7.3)
What should they focus on this season? The Rockets have a young roster with a lot of raw talent. Keep putting them in situations to succeed, even if the success doesn’t come. Getting blown out every night is tough for development. They’ve got to get guys like Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. to make decisions in closer games with drama and tension. Losses will still come, but the lessons will too.
Can they move a veteran for a pick? Eric Gordon has been the guy to move for a couple of years now, ever since James Harden got out of town. I’m not sure you can get a first-round pick for Gordon at this point, but he’s an excellent player you can throw into any team’s rotation.
Confidence meter (1-10) in landing top lottery odds (14 percent): 10
(Top photo of Zion Williamson and Ja Morant: Justin Ford / Getty Images)
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