Panthers Coach Search: What 10 Years Tells About First-Year Hires and Rehires

Candidates for the Panthers’ vacant head coaching job range from Jim Caldwell, 67, nearing retirement age, to mostly attacking millennials in their 30s or early 40s.

The list of 10 known candidates includes seven coaches seeking the first NFL head coaching role, including six coordinators, five of whom are playoff team coaches. . Sixth was Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, a former UNC quarterback who oversaw an offense that ranked fifth in the NFL in points scored and total yards.

But Panthers owner David Tepper and general manager Scott Fitter have already interviewed three former head coaches. In addition to Caldwell, who led the Colts to the Super Bowl, the Panthers spoke with former Indianapolis coaches Frank Reich and Steve Wilkes.

In addition to Johnson, the Panthers have a defensive background of offensive coordinators Shane Steichen, Ken Dorsey, Mike Kafka and Kellen Moore, as well as defensive coordinators Demeko Lyons and Patriots linebacker coach Jerrod Mayo. I would like to speak to the two assistants who havesoon athletic and other news outlets on Thursday, The Panthers had asked permission to interview Mayo. New England has taken the unprecedented step of announcing that I am working to extend his contract.

Even if Mayo pulls out, the Panthers still have plenty of contenders left and important questions to ponder. Should they hire a promising but unproven coach, or is it better to hire an experienced candidate with a proven track record as head?Coach?

To help answer that athletic We analyzed data from the last 10 NFL recruitment cycles, starting with the 2013 head coaching class. Excluding interims, 72 coaches were hired during that period: 49 rookie head coaches and 23 so-called retreads. 20 out of 20) posted a winning record during their tenure with that team, compared to 34.8% (8 out of 23) of recycled coaches.

The data shows that the rookie head coach has a slight advantage over all retread head coaches of the last decade, but only 1.5% difference in win rate. Leaving Chiefs Andy Reid and retired Bucks coach Bruce Arians behind, the winning percentage gap jumps to his 6.7%.

Sure, it’s unfair unless you bring out some successful rookie coaches. But that’s where it gets interesting. Of this year’s 14 playoff coaches, eight were the first head coaches hired since 2017.

That doesn’t even include Rams’ Sean McVay. His innovative plans and early success since his hire five years ago sparked a trend among NFL owners looking for the next up-and-coming offensive boy prodigy.

“This is a league that imitates and imitates success,” said Tony Dungey, the Super Bowl winning coach in Indianapolis with Peyton Manning.

“(20) years ago, Bill Belichick made his second appearance[after five years as the Browns coach]and it was a huge success. Give me a more mature man.” So I think what happened recently is huge. ”

What has happened recently is that a number of offensive coaches have been hired, including four last year. Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell, Miami’s Mike McDaniel and Giants’ Brian Daball are three teams in the playoffs. However, his fourth, Nathaniel Hackett, was sacked after 16 weeks after his 4-11 loss to Russell Wilson.

Which way does the taper lean? Odds favor a first-year coach based on the number of interview requests the Panthers have made to the coordinator, or position coach in the case of Mayo, Tepper has been tested at Roulet for three years. Not having been with an NFL coach may have influenced his mindset.

But one former NFL head coach said most owners like shiny new objects.

“The more they don’t know about you, the more conspiracy and they will hire you,” said the coach, who asked to remain anonymous. ?”

Ron Rivera, who was Charlotte’s first-year coach in 2011, said he wanted to hire a former NFL head coach to help him make the transition from defensive coordinator.

“That was one of the first things I wanted to do because I made so many mistakes and hit so many walls in the first two years,” he said.

Rivera said that when Wilkes arrived as assistant coach in 2012, he had an assistant who could bounce ideas off him and someone who was willing to tell him what he was doing wrong. Because I don’t know,” Rivera said. “And sometimes when you start to get upset and you start to have a little bit of doubt in your head, you start to wonder, ‘Did I make the right decision?'”

After the Panthers finished their first two years under . 500, Rivera oversaw the most successful three-year stretch in franchise history. Rivera said he was the No. 1 pick in the 2011 Draft and the 2015 Panthers’ Super Bowl. I was blessed with

“It’s really a quarterback issue. Let’s be honest. It’s the only thing that everyone seems to miss. If you have a quarterback and he’s very young, and if you have that guy, a lot “Look what happened to the Chargers (and Justin Herbert). Look what happened to us (in Carolina).” We had that guy, he was our buddy and he ran great for seven years before his shoulder hurt.”

Rivera has struggled to find a quarterback due to injuries and inconsistent play since being hired by Washington in 2020. Coordinator Scott Turner was fired.

“What really didn’t work was trying to find a quarterback. We’re still trying to find a quarterback. We might have it at Sam Howell. Let’s see.” Let’s go,” said Rivera. “Finding the right[quarterback]for us was tough.”

* 1st year coaching team

Recruiting data from the past decade shows that both rookie and veteran head coaches benefit from having an elite quarterback. His three retread coaches with the best winning percentages since 2013 are Reed, Gary Biak and Ariane, all of whom are already Hall of Fame quarterbacks (Manning) or retirement Hall of Fame quarterbacks (Manning). Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes) won the Super Bowl. ).

The three rookie coaches with the best winning percentages in the last decade have all worked with quarterbacks in the NFL — O’Connell, Green Bay’s Matt Raffler and Philadelphia’s Nick Siriani. O’Connell said his 4,500-yard passing off of Kirk Cousins ​​in his season saw him trail 13-4, but Lafleur said he was a future Hall of Famer when he succeeded McCarthy in 2019. Aaron, who is a player he succeeded Rogers. Until a shoulder injury forced him to miss two games late in the season for the Eagles, who parted ways this weekend as the top seed in the NFC.

All three were in their 30s when they were hired, and two of them (Raffler and O’Connell) were from McVay’s coaching tree (as were Bengals’ Zach Taylor and Chargers’ Brandon Staley).

* 1st year coaching team ** Including current season

Former Panthers coach John Fox comes from a defensive background and believes hiring all of McVay’s protégés set a bad precedent.

“It’s like owning a company like Walmart and naming a 34-year-old CEO. I mean, who does that? It’s become a trend,” Fox said. “It’s going to all quarterback guys, all offense. But I don’t care how good a quarterback coach you are. If you’re coaching a bad quarterback. If so, you are not a good quarterback coach.”

In the last decade, there have been seven rookie coaches who have been fired during or after their first season.The list includes Arizona (Josh Rosen) and Cleveland (Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer). Including Wilkes and Rob Chaczynski, who each stepped into bad QB situations.

Dungey said everything he learned in his six seasons at Tampa Bay made him a better coach than when he went to Indianapolis. But Dungey concedes that Manning has stepped into a great position at Indy, which is in its prime.Dungey named Belichick and Seattle’s Pete Carroll as other coaches who did well in the second act

“Is it coincidence? Is it luck? Did you just happen to be in the right place and get a great quarterback? There are many factors,” says Dungy. “I was a better coach the second time. I think I was a good fit for both places.”

Data shows that if a team hires a former head coach, he’s better off in his previous stop. Reid and Arius are the bright spots in this group, but Kubiak, Caldwell, McCarthy and Doug Pederson Such names also won on the second stop. Kubiak arrived in Denver for Manning’s last season, winning Lombardi his trophy when the Broncos defeated the Panthers in Super Bowl 50. Lawrence during Pederson’s first season in Jacksonville.

Dungey said Pederson’s steady presence is a good thing for the “dysfunctional” franchise of Lawrence and Jagger following the failed experiment of Urban Meyer.

Dungey is a big believer in fit. He was his back in the Steelers’ defense for his two seasons in the 1970s. He later worked in Pittsburgh on the staff of Chuck Knoll, one of his three head coaches with the Steelers in the last 54 years.

Dungey said late Steelers president Dan Rooney had a type. And Knoll, Bill Cauer and Mike Tomlin fit it perfectly.

“Because of the location of Pittsburgh, the geography, the city, the division they played in, he wanted a young coach because he wanted to have a 15- or 20-year relationship with him. That’s the heartbeat of the city. And it’s going to be a cold-weather playoff game, so he wanted a defensive coach,” Dungey said.

“He wanted a good communicator, because that was his credo. So he hired a defensive coordinator who was young and fresh, around 30. They stayed 15 and 20 years. But he succeeded because that was his blueprint.”

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell had Dungey advise owners over the years on a variety of topics, including hiring practices. He always asks what they want from their next coach.

“You’d be surprised how many owners can’t tell the truth,” says Dungy. “Some people can talk about it very specifically, but a lot of people don’t really think about it.”

Tepper will have to make a decision over the next week or two if it hasn’t already. Are you young or old? Unproven or have experience? Offense or defense? Or something a little wider.

“Exactly the question. What are you looking for?” said Dungey. “What is your vision for the Carolina Panthers? What do you want this organization to look like in the next 15 years?”

(Ben Johnson top photo: Junfu Han/USA Today)