Iraq could snatch a defeat off the jaws of a soccer win

After a glittering opening ceremony, the host nation easily defeated a Saudi Arabian team still lauded for their victory over Lionel Messi’s Argentina in the World Cup. Marvel at the spectacular stadiums, restaurants and shopping malls, and the picturesque Corniche of the Shatt al-Arab waterway. For the Iraqi, whether the team lifts the cup on his January 19th or not, this is a very rare moment of national pride.

Baghdad wants investors around the world to take note as Basra collects the bouquet. But once the tournament is over, attention will quickly return to Iraq’s political dysfunction. Prime Minister Mohammed Shiah al-Sudani’s government, which was appointed in his late October, more than a year after the 2021 general election, may not last long in this world.

Iranian aid is highly suspicious in the eyes of most Iraqis. The country’s most popular politician, Moqtada al-Sadr, has failed to form a government despite his party winning a large number of seats in parliament, but has lost millions. It retains the ability to bring its supporters to the streets and paralyze the government.

If Sudani can survive Sadr’s political maneuvering, he will have the unenviable task of managing Iraq’s economy, which is entirely dependent on oil exports. High prices throughout much of last year helped cover the incompetence of the Iraqi government.

But Iraq has failed to turn oil revenues into opportunities for younger generations. A comprehensive labor force survey jointly conducted by the Iraqi government and the International Labor Organization last year put the youth unemployment rate at 35.8%. Unemployment, along with deep dissatisfaction with the government and anger over Iran’s interference in Iraqi affairs, has been the driving force behind widespread protests that have ravaged the country over the past three years.

Basra and the southern provinces of Iraq are somewhat more stable than Baghdad and its environs, but have not recovered from their long neglected state under Saddam Hussein’s rule. Dictators starved their resources after a failed uprising against them in the aftermath of the First Gulf War. Southerners complain that Baghdad’s subsequent government has paid no more attention to their problems.

But the governments of these states, which hold the majority of the country’s oil and gas reserves, are even more corrupt than federal authorities. Unemployment is even worse than Baghdad. Some of the most successful private companies are in the business of smuggling oil and smuggling drugs.

The South is also the scene of Iraq’s impending environmental disaster. Rising temperatures and falling groundwater tables are driving runoff from southern cities. Iraq’s agricultural base is at risk as Turkey and Iran divert more water from the rivers for their own needs, not to mention the historically low levels of the Tigris and Euphrates. increase.

To reverse these trends, Baghdad, like Basra, needs a strong, efficient and clean government. It seems unlikely, but Iraqis are entitled to optimism wherever they can get it. Please play.

Bloomberg Opinion Details:

• Democratic Iran Leads the Middle East: Robert D. Kaplan

• Crypto future may look like Iraq’s past: Lionel Laurent

• Sadr failure could collapse Iraqi democracy: Hussein Ibish

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Bobby Ghosh is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist on foreign policy. Previously, he was Editor-in-Chief of Hindustan Times, Editor-in-Chief of Quartz and International Editor of Time.

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