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It’s time for the playoffs. After not taking the regular season too seriously, it’s time to refocus and get serious.
Are you talking about me or Dak Prescott?
While Prescott and the Cowboys were blown away by newcomers Sam Howell and the Commanders, I ended a dismal season with a win week.
There were some predictions right, like drafting Jalen Hurts in fantasy, the Seahawks being sleepers, and the Broncos being overhyped. And that three he had a game stretch when the Cowboys outscored the Vikings, Giants and Colts combined and he scored 122-42. That was six weeks before him, and the Cowboys have been using Cruz’s control ever since.
Dallas has played up to the level of their opponents, but now is the time for their talented roster to do what they do best.
Another thing we got right this season is nerfing Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. They were league worst his 4-12-1 against the spread.
Thanks to the respect Brady earned, this Cowboys-Bucks matchup is the marquee of the weekend, earning him a “Monday Night Football” slot.
Other matchups feature six quarterbacks making their playoff debuts: Genno Smith, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, and Skyler Thompson. We all know he’s the best quarterback, but what about other quarterbacks?
Deeper
The Rise of Brock Purdy: How the 49ers’ Unexpected Leader Prepared for the Job
Thompson will be the worst QB to start a playoff game, not personally, so the Bills beating the Dolphins is one of the best bets. Point spreads are rising minute by minute, but not very high. I also like Prescott and Cowboys handling Buccaneers and Jaguars running over Chargers.
Our Super Bowl pick is the Chiefs over the 49ers. Any team that lost Tyreek Hill but improved their offense, who actually practiced the “Ring Around the Rosie” play to troll their divisional rivals, is wrestling on another level.
last week: He finished strong with a 3-1 record in the best bet and a 10-6 against the overall spread. In other words, it was a bright red cherry on top of a poop sundae. 127-139-5 ATS and 26-27-3 in best bets of the season.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked once a pick is made. click here for live odds.
Purdy is Kurt Warner. Not really, as Purdy was the last pick in the draft while Warner went undrafted. averaging 22.6 points with Purdy and averaging 33.5 points in six games since Purdy’s arrival. (Also, the 49ers aren’t taking the Seahawks lightly after beating them twice this season.)
Jenno Smith, on the other hand, has been struggling lately. He has scored 8 touchdowns and his 5 interceptions in the last 5 games after throwing his 22 TDs in his first 12 games.
And the Kenneth Walker III will have a hard time countering that defense, too. The 49ers defense finished his season as a regular with the lowest blowout percentage (4.1%) in the NFL.
Don’t be afraid of big point spreads. The Seahawks narrowly beat the Rams last week — and Baker Mayfield was terrible in that game. The Seahawks lead the league in rookie snap percentage on offense (22.9 percent), and they deserve credit for getting there. Pete Carroll was vindicated. But Nick Bosa and company turn off the lights on Saturday. Since 2000, there have been only eight other wildcard round games in which a team has had a 10-point or better advantage. Favorable teams he has a 7-1 ATS and an 8-0 record.
Pick: 49ers -9.5
The 49ers averaged 33.5 points per game in six games with Brock Purdy replacing the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. (Joe Nicholson/USA Today)
This seems like a no-brainer to me, but a big part of it is that I don’t believe Chargers coach Brandon Staley.
Last week, he played the starter too long in a game that meant nothing, and receiver Mike Williams, who has battled injuries all season, suffered a back injury. (He’s listed as suspicious). This season with Williams, Herbert has a 69.2% completion rate, a 7.11 YPA, and a 46.4% passing rate. Without Williams, those numbers drop to 66.7% completion, 6.24% YPA, and 45% pass.
The Jaguars defeated a hard-hitting Chargers team 38-10 in Week 3. He was 13/16 in his 111 yards and in the Blitz he was a TD. The Jaguars also have 36 runs for 151 yards and should free up Travis Etienne Jr. here.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ young defense is getting better and better, with Josh Allen and Arden Key among the three teammates in the top 20 for pressure rate out of 178 players (Allen ranked 15th). , key 20).
Yeah, give me a home team against an underperforming team with poor run defense—5.4 yards per carry allowed, the worst in the NFL—is traveling across the country.
Pick: Jaguars +2.5
The Dolphins will split two games against the Bills this season and meet again on Sunday with Thompson playing quarterback due to injuries to Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater.
Dolphins have no shots. Raheem Mostert has worked very well and could be a headache for Bills if he has to worry about the passing game. But Thompson looks uncomfortable, and to make matters worse, Hill hasn’t been as explosive as he was last month, so he might be beaten.
The Bills, who got a good lift from the Trade Deadline acquisition, should be able to build and maintain a lead thanks to their running game. He records carry yards and ranks first among running backs (3.64). Devin his single tally is his third (29.4%) and Cook is his fourth (28.6%).
Bills can choose any score they like in this game.
Pick: Bills -13
A James Cook and Bills running game could pave the way against the Dolphins. (Gregory Fisher/USA Today)
Considering what a cool story they are and how many bad performances the Vikings have had despite having a 13-4 record, everyone goes to the Giants. I also want to be on the Giants because I think Bryan Dabor will easily be selected as Coach of the Year for his work this season. Last week was a virtuoso performance that rested most of the key players and completely pulled away from his team, the Eagles, who were playing in the No. 1 seed.
But the Vikings have found a way to win, and dominated most of last month’s 27-24 win over the Giants before allowing a touchdown late. Kirk Cousins has seen the Giants’ tricky and frequent blitzes, but he handled them well that day. He had 171 yards and he had 15 of 23 RBIs and 2 touchdowns. His 50% of his throws came in his 2.5 seconds or less, tying him for the second-highest quick percentage of his throws in all games this season for Cousins. And he could easily find Justin Jefferson.
Tight end TJ Hockenson had the best game of the Vikings-Giants game, catching 13 catches on 16 targets for 109 yards. Additionally, Irv Smith Jr. returned for the Vikings last week.
Minnesota’s defense isn’t great (the Giants offense put up big numbers in their first meeting), but the Vikings need to score enough points at home to win and cover the spread.
Pick: Viking -3
Deeper
‘Franchise Changer’ Justin Jefferson is next in line as the Vikings’ legacy of great WRs continues
Picks rarely depend on right guard status, but with Alex Kappa out for the Bengals this week, he’s scoring points with the Ravens. Kappa is the Bengals’ starting offensive this season. Wright his tackle Rael Collins tore his ACL last month and Joe Burrow didn’t have a long day.
The Ravens’ fierce defense, led by Roquan Smith and his new contract, should take advantage of it. In that first meeting, the Bengals ran for 101 yards and he ran 21 times and he had 2.43 yards before contact per carry. Last week, the Bengals had him 55 yards and he ran 20 times and before contact per carry he had 0.15 yards and hit a loaded box 45% of the time.
Burrow may make me look silly, but that’s nothing new to me this season.
Tyler Huntley is likely to get a nod as the Ravens’ quarterback since Lamar Jackson is absent. I can’t. It seems I need a reminder from time to time what a great coach John Harbaugh is.
Pick: Ravens +9.5
Brady is 7-0 against the Cowboys and has the most wins without a loss against a single opponent. But it’s not this Brady. He set the league record for pass attempts, but his 6.4 yards per attempt is the worst average in 20 years. It’s amazing how long he’s been playing.
The Bucs fall to 8-9 with Sunday’s loss.
It’s Tom Brady’s first losing season as the first starting QB in the NFL, college, or high school.
– 1993-94 Serra High School (California)
– 1998-99 Michigan
– 2001-19 Patriots
– 2020-21 Buccaneers25 years, 25 seasons undefeated until Sunday.
— Jason Starrett (@starrettjason) January 8, 2023
The Buccaneers can’t run the ball, so a capable Cowboys defense can flock to the old man. Brady ranked his 31st out of 33 qualified QBs in the EPA/DB when the pressure came on this season. Even with sleepwalking along the way, the Cowboys finished the season leading his NFL in pressure percentage (43.2%).
Dallas may be coming out of their worst game, but they need to have their best early in the season and feed running backs Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. To do.
Pick: Cowboy -2.5
— TruMedia’s research is courtesy of NFL Editor Aaron Reiss.
(Graphics: Sean Riley / athleticPhoto by Dak Prescott: Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)
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