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A sample size of 17 games each season is provided to help you identify which quarterbacks are where, but we all know that January and February are simply different.
How quarterbacks play in the playoffs is dramatically different than how they play at home in Week 6. The postseason is when reputations are made and broken. When a Legend begins to build his place on Mount Rushmore in the NFL.
This is the week Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence can start his NFL legacy.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovski kicked off the controversial weekend in his ranking of the NFL’s 12 playoff quarterbacks, placing Lawrence ninth behind Daniel Jones. As a result, we decided to take a closer look at the numbers and footage and create our own ranking of the AFC quarterback arms race.
For clarity, this is the ranking as it stands right after the 2022 season.
Tier 1: Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes, my pick for MVP of the 2022-23 season, was absolutely tearful this season. Has top sack %, top intercept %, and best Y/A, AY/A. and ANY/A,
No one in the NFL, let alone the AFC, can match Mahomes. The AFC is fully loaded with quarterbacks, but Mahomes will remain in his own class until someone can topple the consistent dominance he’s displayed since his first start in the NFL.
Tier 2: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow
This is a coin toss that could go either way. While Burrow excels in certain areas like EPA/plays, turnover-worthy play percentage, and completion percentage, Allen is one of the most explosive playmakers in the entire NFL, not just a quarterback. I have numbers and footage that show I’m one of him.
I give Burrow a slight edge because he hurts the ball less, but few offenses rely as much on one player as the Bills offense. Both Burrow and Allen have proven themselves to be elite quarterbacks, but Allen has the better postseason record.
Tier 3: Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence
Now comes the interesting part. Herbert and Lawrence have eerily similar numbers this season, but Lawrence has better sack percentage, Y/A, and touchdown percentage, and a big gap in EPA/plays. It’s worth noting that 2022 was Justin Herbert’s least productive NFL season, but there’s a reason we’re looking at where quarterbacks stand today rather than a year ago.
Herbert has an edge over Lawrence in terms of experience and consistency. Herbert’s peaks are higher and more frequent than Lawrence’s peaks. But Lawrence has shown ability to match Herbert’s best days, and it’s not hard to argue that Lawrence’s Best would give the Jaguars a shot against Herbert’s Best.
Each of these passers lacks the numbers and game-to-game dominance to enter one of the top two tiers, at least this season. But it’s a testament to the strength of the AFC, as each is one of the best eight quarterbacks in the playoffs this year and a legitimate top 10 passer.
Tier ???: Skyler Thompson, Tyler Huntley
It’s a shame Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa won’t be playing this weekend. Unsurprisingly, Huntley and Thompson rank him 6th and he 7th in nearly every important quarterback metric among the seven AFC quarterbacks, and Thompson has a solid record of his NFL performances this season. He is one of the lowest EPA/Play of any quarterback.
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