NFL Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Wildcard Round

By the time the NFL playoffs begin, the betting market will be in full bloom. Each team’s data is sprouted with an entire season’s worth of stats to help bookmakers generate the most predictable lines and bettors to make the most informed choices. more evenly distributed, and there is typically no significant variation in point spreads and totals.

Both Baltimore and Miami were expected to play without franchise quarterbacks, leaving uncertainty as to which backup would start.

There are also some mismatches, double-digit point spreads, and some intrigue over personnel decisions. They don’t call it a wildcard round.

All Times Eastern.

game on saturday

No. 2 San Francisco 49ers, No. 7 Seattle Seahawks, 4:30 p.m. Fox

Lines: 49ers -10 | Total: 42.5

The Seahawks finished among the worst teams in the league as most preseason predictions recognized a downgrade at quarterback from Russell Wilson to Gino Smith. The season didn’t go that way, but under coach Pete Carroll’s 13 in his season at Seattle, the Seahawks made it to the playoffs for the 10th time. praise. Now, Seattle is entering as a double-digit underdog against his 10-game winning streak division rival, the 49ers.

San Francisco swept the regular season meeting, including winning 21-13 in Week 15 when rookie quarterback Brock Purdy made his first road start. Purdy should continue to benefit from playing in a quarterback-friendly Shanahan offense with Devo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey as top options. Purdy doesn’t need to throw a deep ball because it’s the tallest (6.8). San Francisco should also do well against Seattle’s defense, which lost linebacker Jordyn Brooks and nose tackle Brian Mohn to season-ending injuries.

The 49ers should win, but San Francisco has an Achilles heel. The defense holds opponents low across the league in yardage average and points allowed, but covering deep passes was one of his worst in the NFL. Smith is the most accurate quarterback in the league with passes of 20+ yards this season, so the Seahawks can turn some big plays into opportunities to cover his two-score spread. Pick: Seattle +10

No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers, No. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:15 p.m. NBC

Line: Jaguar +2.5 | Total: 47.5

The game features two dominant quarterbacks who have taken the team to new heights. Justin Herbert, 24, helped the Chargers earn a playoff spot for the first time since 2018, while Trevor, 23, Lawrence was one of the most accurate passers in the league. The Jaguars have won six of their last seven games in the second half.

The Jaguars beat the Chargers 38-10 when the two teams met in Week 3. Jacksonville’s defense, led by edge rusher Josh Allen’s four quarterback hits, held Herbert to a passer rating of 74 as he played with a rib injury.

Herbert is healthy now, but many other Bolts are in bad shape after coach Brandon Staley’s baffling decision to play all starters three-quarters in a nonsensical Week 18 game against the Broncos. is collapsing Receiver Mike Williams left the game in the cart, reportedly needed help walking afterwards. Pass rusher Joey Bosa missed 12 games last week and may have aggravated his groin injury in his second week off the injury list.

Lawrence is the headliner, but the Jaguars are doing well based on their matchup (over 140 yards on the ground in wins over the Cowboys and Jets) and Travis Etienne has yards per game and yards per carry. We made it into the top 10. In this game, the market is split roughly in the middle, with lines bouncing on either side of zero. Earn all the points your home team can earn. Pick: Jaguars +2.5

game on sunday

No. 7 Miami Dolphins, No. 2 Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. CBS

Line: Bills -12.5 | Total: 44.5

These AFC East teams were split into two meetings this season, and both games were hard fought. Whether this game will be a repeat of that performance will depend heavily on Miami’s injury situation. The line in this game was as low as 9 points on rumors that Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa would play. Tagovailoa was ruled out for his second concussion in eight weeks, and with news that the Dolphins plan to start his rookie seventh-round pick, Skyler, his Thompson line is up to 13.5. rose.

In the regular season finale against the Jets, Thompson was restricted to screen plays and engineered runs rather than deeper passes on crucial third and fourth down plays. Miami pulled off an ugly 11-6 win despite not scoring a single touchdown. Running back Raheem Mostert broke his thumb on the way. The Dolphins average 25.5 points per game when Tagovailoa plays and 16.3 points when he doesn’t. .).

The spread is high, but should be manageable for a Bills team that is likely to appeal to home crowds, including teammate Dumar Hamlin. Pick: bill -12.5

No. 6 Giants of No. 3 Minnesota Vikings, 4:30 p.m. Fox

Lines: Viking -3 | Total: 48.5

With the Vikings winning 11 one-score games and the Giants winning 8-4-1, it’s no surprise that this will be the most even match of the weekend. The line opened at 2.5, but these numbers were quickly bought up and settled at 3.

The Vikings were expected to decline throughout the season, largely due to their tendency to win games through unpredictable factors such as turnovers, and their tendency to dominate in penalty fights. Minnesota won the Week 16 meeting between these two teams with his goal in his second field at the end, the Vikings blocking a punt and he scored two crucial takeaways. , benefited from a little luck. But this victory was not just luck. The team also blew the Giants defense out of the sky with tight end TJ Hockenson’s 109 receiving yards (two touchdowns) and Justin his Jefferson’s 133 yards and scoring.

This week, the Giants’ defense returned cornerback Adley Jackson, linebacker Aziz Ojulari and lineman Leonard Williams to limited roles in practice, while defensive back Xavier McKinney returned to full reps. Having one of them available on Sunday will give you the help you need against the Vikings’ formidable pass attack.In the most skewed market so far this week, 90% of the money wagered on this game is Dropped by the Giants. This week doesn’t seem to be the week for experts to start believing in Vikings. Pick: Giant +3

No. 6 Baltimore Ravens vs No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals 8:15 p.m. NBC

Lines: Bengals -7 | Total: 40.5

Haven’t we just seen this game? The Bengals overwhelmed the Ravens 27-16 on Sunday, but this weekend’s playoff matchup should be different than a typical AFC North rivalry. Star Baltimore’s quarterback Lamar His Jackson is expected to miss his sixth game with a sprained knee ligament, and Anthony His Brown snapped the starter during practice, but Tyler His Huntley is not ruled out. When these teams faced Brown at quarterback last week, the points spread was 11 and the Bengals pushed. This week, the line shrunk to an expensive 7 and stayed there even after news that Jackson didn’t practice.

The Ravens’ pass rush worked last week against Cincinnati’s offensive line, which lost right guard Alex Kappa to an ankle injury in the third quarter. Kappa is his second starter the Bengals have lost on the right flank and runs should cause problems in his game and make life more difficult for quarterback Joe his burrow. Last week, the Bengals ran just 65 yards for a total of 90 yards in the second half and he only managed one field goal. Still, it was all they needed to win thanks to their big first-half lead.

The Ravens rested tight end Mark Andrews and running back JK Dobbins last week, so their return will give the Bengals another challenge. , and ultimately cannot plan for a deep playoff berth. The Bengals went 20-3-1 against the spread last season, making him as safe a pick as this weekend. Pick: Bengals -7

monday night games

Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8 p.m. ESPN

Line: Buccaneers +2.5 | Total 45.5

The Buccaneers (8-9) stumbled into the playoffs with a losing record. Strong defense and quarterback Tom won the NFC South with wins here and there on the back of his Brady’s late-game heroics. Coach Todd Bowles inexplicably continued to run the ball on first downs even though the team averaged only 3.6 yards per first down rushing, lining up with the Indianapolis Colts for the worst average in the league. I’m here.

We got a glimpse of Tampa Bay opening the playbook with a must-win game against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17. The return of Elite offensive his tackle Tristan Wirfs to the lineup has given Brady a little more time to work in his pocket.

The Cowboys are the favorites in this game, but gave the Commanders 309 total offensive yards after the regular season finale. Washington nearly doubled the Cowboys’ output in a game that could help Dallas earn the No. 1 seed in his NFC Texans, losing to the Jags in overtime and Dak Prescott every week. We’re watching you throw at least one pick dutifully. The market is less impressed with the Cowboys. By mid-week, 63% of his bets and 83% of his money were on Tampa Bay.

Still, the Buccaneers have haunted this column, and nearly every game this season has put us on the wrong side. I can. Pick: Buccaneers +2.5

How betting lines work

A quick primer for those unfamiliar with the betting line: Favorites are listed next to a negative number representing the number of points they must win to cover the spread. For example, Buccaneers -2.5 means that Tampa Bay must beat the Seahawks by at least 3 points before the supporters can win the bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score. This indicates whether the team’s total score in the game is above or below a preselected number of points.

Betting market data comes from Action Network’s public betting data and lines come from Unabated’s real-time odds tracker.