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If you had to pick one NFL player who most closely matched your definition of the season’s most valuable player, who would you choose and why?
Of course, the answer depends on your interpretation of the title. most valuable
If by most valuable you mean the player with the best stats, the answer is Patrick Mahomes and his NFL single-season record 5,608 total offensive yards. If by most valuable you mean the player with the highest analytic marks, the answer is again Patrick Mahomes and his league-leading DYAR (1,752) and total QBR (77.6). If by most valuable you mean the player with the most dynamic and effective style of play, the answer is Jalen Hurts and his 3,701 yards, 22 touchdown passing, 760 rushing yards and 13 touchdown runs. Become.
Arguments can also be made for Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and a healthy Tua Tagovailoa.
No matter how great all these players are, none of them will earn my vote in 2022.
My criteria for the most valuable players are very simple: the totality of their on-field performance in relation to the context of the playing situation. Who contributed the most to the team’s chances of winning?
Teammates, coaches, planning, weather, schedule intensity, expectations, quality of home field advantage, and continuity all affect performance on the field. It’s an imperfect science.
In fact, it’s a foregone conclusion that Patrick Mahomes was named the AP NFL MVP. It’s hard to argue against a future first ballot for a Hall of Famer who has just produced one of the best seasons of his already legendary career.
However, there is one player I would rank slightly above him given the criteria outlined above. “The Promised Prince”.
Credit to Nick Wright for his official nickname in Pro Football Reference.
raw stats
- 4,113 passing yards (7.0 YPA) in 387 of 584 (66.3%), 25 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions, 95.2 passer rating
- 291 rushing yards (4.7 YPC) and 5 rushing touchdowns on 62 carries
- 4,404 total yards and 30 total touchdowns
At the surface level, we see some solid numbers, but they are a far cry from past numbers. A big step in the right direction after an incredibly sketchy statistics rookie campaign. But in relation to his peers?
2022 NFL Rankings
- 2nd place passer rating at win (110.2)
- Suck rate 4th (4.4%)
- DVOA 6th (13.1%)
- 6th year (946)
- 6th in interception rate (1.4%)
- DYAR 7th (948)
- VOA 7th (13.0%)
- 7th in Passes Completed (387)
- 8th in ANY/A (6.66)
- 8th in TD passes (25)
- 8th in Passed 1D (206)
- EYDS 8th (4,446)
- 4QC 8th place (3)
- Passerate 9th (95.2)
- 9th in passing yards (4,113 yards)
- 10th in NY/A (6.43)
- 10th in Completions/Game (22.8)
2022 was a tough year for passing in the sense that, much like 2017, rules and refereeing impacted totals and efficiency across the league.
The league average of passing yards per game decreased from 228.3 to 218.5, and the touchdown passing percentage decreased from 4.5% to 4.2%. Example: Lawrence has 25 in touchdown passes and he ranked 8th. Barrow said he would finish eighth in 2021 with 34 he threw to Jammer Chase, Tea Higgins and Tyler in his void. Basically, Lawrence’s 4,404 total yards and 30 total touchdowns in 2022 will match his 2021 nearly 4,600 yards and 39 total touchdowns.
These are raw stats and rankings. DVOA (Football by His Outsiders) sheds an even deeper light on how impressive Lawrence’s performance has been, especially when it comes to supporting the team. This season, Lawrence finished his 6th (13.1%) in the NFL. This is higher than both the much better teams Barrow (10.9%) and Hearts (10.6%).
2022 DVOA Ranking
- 20. RB Travis Etienne (0.8%)
- 31st WR Christian Kirk (5.2%)
- No. 51 WR Zay Jones (-3.4%)
- No. 15 TE, Evan Engram (7.3%)
- Overall defense rate 26th (6.1%) —AFC Worst 2nd Place
- 30th pass defense
Clearly, there is a rather large gap between public perception and DVOA. We’ve seen Etienne’s explosive runs, Kirk’s highlights his catches, his YAC in the engram, and strong dominance on defense (e.g., the second half of Week 18 vs. Tennessee).
I can’t speak for the Football Outsiders, but what I’ve learned from scouting all of the Jaguars’ snaps this season is that Lawrence is far more consistent and dominant than his support. The narrative-based reactionary take oversimplifies Lawrence’s season into hot starts, low dips, hot streaks, and cool finishes. The initial dip (weeks 4-8) usually overlooks a terrifying number of drops, an elite sack rate game and a near-perfect match against Indianapolis in week 6.
The second dip (Weeks 16-18) was again an elite sack percentage game, a very sharp outing in the rain against the Elite Jets defense, an 80.0+ percent tie against Houston, near perfection. Missed the first half. Against Tennessee in the AFC South Championship Game.
Lawrence struggled in the second half, missing a wide-open touchdown pass that became an ongoing topic of conversation. This double standard persisted throughout the season.
Remember all those dropped touchdown passes? If you haven’t watched the full Jags game, you probably haven’t heard of them. Under Urban Meyer and Darrell Bevel in 2021, the Jaguars led his NFL relegation percentage. After making those drops a key point for him to improve in 2022, they led his NFL in drops for the second straight season.
Individually, Zay Jones and Christian Kirk each tied for the second most drops in the NFL with 8 per PFF.
On the ground, Etienne emerged as an impressive big-play threat. There is no denying his ability and influence when he is at his best. But it’s worth noting that he went 4-0 in his four-game low for the Jaguars this season (vs the Ravens, vs the Titans, vs the Colts, @Titans).
- 11/27/22 vs Ravens: 3 yards on 2 carries (1.5 YPC), 0 touchdowns
- 1/7/23 vs. Titans: 17 yards on 7 carries (2.4 YPC), 0 touchdowns
- 9/18/22 vs Colts: 20 yards on 9 carries (2.2 YPC), 0 touchdowns
- 12/11/22 @ Titans: 17 carries for 32 yards (1.9 YPC), 0 touchdowns
- Total: 72 yards (2.1 YPC) on 35 carries, 0 touchdowns
Despite lacking balance from the run game to change the way the defense played him, Lawrence was largely unstoppable.
- 11/27/22 vs. Ravens: 29 of 37 (78.4%) with 129.8 passer rating, 321 yards (8.7 YPA), 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions
- 1/7/23 vs. Titans: 92.2 passer rating, 212 yards (6.6 YPA), 1 touchdown, 20 of 32 (62.5%) with 0 interceptions
- Sept. 18, 2022 vs. Colts: 25/30 (83.3%) with 121.5 passer rating, 235 yards (7.8 YPA), 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions
- 12/11/22 @ Titans: 121.9 passer rating, 368 yards (8.8 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 30 of 42 (71.4%) with 0 interceptions
- Total: 118.4 passer rating, 104 of 141 (73.8%) for 1,136 yards (8.1 YPA), 9 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
In a team sport like soccer, no one does it alone, Lawrence included. I’m not going to ignore how vastly improved the side’s legion has been and how much the great play they’ve made is worth it.
It’s not meant to overlook the reality that the Jaguars wouldn’t have made it to the postseason without Josh Allen and an elite second-half defensive performance against the Titans last weekend. Foyesade Oluokun and his total of 184 tackles and 128 solos (both Jaguar franchise records) cannot be overlooked. Doug Pederson’s (I named him NFL Head Coach of the Year) contribution to the picture cannot be overlooked. DuvallIt’s hard to overlook the enthusiasm of his fanbase and the impact his 70,050 fans had on the regular season finale.
But the crux of this team’s success this season has been Lawrence’s performance at quarterback. In his 15 years covering the NFL, it’s one of his most memorable singles of his season in terms of context/play situation. Lawrence will do well with teams like the Bengals, Bills and Eagles in 2022, but it’s hard for any player in his current NFL to believe Lawrence can play for a team with the ability to match the Jaguars. . It has received far greater support and surpassed what others have done.
I am not one of the 50 voters. Nothing will stop Mahomes from winning his well-deserved second MVP. I don’t expect to change many people’s minds.
But hopefully I was able to share a few things you didn’t realize before reading this article.
Finally, let’s take a look at some of Lawrence’s accomplishments in 2022.
- 2x AFC Offensive Player of the Week: Weeks 3 and 14
- NFL single-season record for games with a completion rate of 80.0% or higher. 20: 4 (tied with Brees in 2018 and Cousins in 2019)
- 105.0+ Passer Rating/30+ Attempts/70.0%+ Completion Percentage/1+ Touchdown Passes/0 Interceptions NFL Single Season Record: 6 (tied with Brees in 2013)
- Jaguar franchise record for completion rate in one season (66.3%)
- Jaguars franchise pass completion record in one season (387)
- Higher seasonal DVOA (13.1%) than Burrow (10.9%) and Hurts (10.6%)
- Wins with a higher passer rating (110.2) than Mahomes (108.7), Barrow (108.1), Allen (102.7) and Hurts (102.0)
- 1-6 records when Lawrence’s passer rate falls below 85.0
- 102.7 passer rating on fourth down
- 1st in AFC interception rate (1.4%)
- Lowest interception rate in NFL history for a first-two quarterback. 500 attempts (1.4%)
- TD vs INT on the road: 13-3
- Leading two 17-point comebacks (11/6/22 vs. Raiders, 12/18/22 vs. Cowboys)
- First and only quarterback in NFL history to lose a game after completing 90.0% or better (at least 20 attempts), 3 total touchdowns, and 0 turnovers (10/16/22 @ Colts) became.
- Joined Peyton Manning as the only two quarterbacks in NFL history to win the division championship for a team that finished last with winning percentages in the previous two seasons.
- He became the first and only quarterback in NFL history to win a division championship with a team that finished first overall in the past two seasons.
- I was injured in 5.5 games and missed weekly practice time during that period (Weeks 13-18).
- They finished the season 7-2 in their final nine games and 5-0 in their final five.
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