It’s a risky bet for the quarterback to make the first playoff start

The NFL regular season is over. We advanced to the wild card round of the playoffs. With 18 teams now eliminated, we need to focus on the remaining 14 teams in the playoffs. Instead of playing 16 games each week, he’ll only have to play 6 next weekend.

At least five starting quarterbacks will debut in the NFL playoffs this weekend. Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones are all lining up for their first-ever postseason start. Depending on the circumstances of the injury, that number could be up to seven.

Tua Tagovailoa could make his playoff debut with the Dolphins if he clears concussion protocol. His current-injured backup Teddy Bridgewater has playoff experience in Minnesota, but if he misses, third-string rookie Skyler will make his Thompson debut in the postseason. increase.

Lamar Jackson clearly has playoff experience with the Baltimore Ravens, but his status has been up in the air this week. Without Jackson, either Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown could make their playoff debut at center in Baltimore.

First-time playoff starter struggles

Last season, five quarterbacks made their NFL playoff debuts: Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray, Mack Jones and Jalen Hurts.

Burrow and Kerr went head to head in the wild card round, with Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals coming out on top. However, as the two first-time quarterbacks went head-to-head, their data is irrelevant to the sample at hand.

Murray and the Cardinals faced Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Jones and the Patriots faced Josh Allen and the Bills. Hearts’ Eagles faced off against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

Those three quarterbacks were 0-3 straight and 0-3 over the spread. Arizona lost with 23 as her 3.5 point underdog. New England lost by 30 as her 4.5 point underdog. Philadelphia lost by 16 as her 7.5 point underdog. The Eagles trailed him 31-0 after three quarters. Overall, the first-time quarterback outperformed 112-43. We failed to cover the spread by an average of nearly 18 points.

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Not just last year. Overall, the first-time playoff starting quarterback is a disgusting 14-35-1 over the spread against quarterbacks with previous playoff experience. They cover spreads more than 28% of the time.

The latest quarterback to buck the trend is Baker Mayfield in 2020, who went on the road and beat out Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 5.5-point underdog. Of course, there are exceptions to the rule, but for the most part playoff experience is pretty important.

Daniel Jones is on fire

As mentioned, it’s safe to assume that five quarterbacks will make their playoff debuts this weekend.

Unfortunately for those looking to back the trend and dismiss playoff starters for the first time, four of these quarterbacks will go head-to-head. Justin Herbert will be making his playoff debut, but will face fellow playoff debutant Trevor Lawrence. The same goes for the Seattle vs. San Francisco matchup featuring Gino Smith and Brock Purdy.

Daniel Jones remains. Jones is in his fourth NFL season with the Giants, but this is his first time making the playoffs. The Giants head to Minnesota, where the Vikings are home against New York and he’s a 3-point favorite. Kirk Cousins ​​will make the playoffs for the fourth time in his career. He’s 1-2 in straights and against spreads.

With four years of experience, Jones is no rookie. But it doesn’t really matter. His personality and demeanor have been compared to Eli Manning, who had a lot of playoff success, so people might think Jones was built for this moment. , was shut out by the Carolina Panthers in their first playoff start.

Other situations

Injuries have made the situation for some quarterbacks quite uncertain.

The trend is also true for Miami quarterbacks, if anyone other than Teddy Bridgewater starts as quarterback for the Miami Dolphins this week. Bridgewater got his first start in his career in the playoffs, losing, but covered the spread when Minnesota lost to Seattle in the 2015 playoffs. It was a game in which the infamous Blair Walsh missed a field goal.

Miami is a 10.5 point road underdog against Buffalo. Joshua Allen will make his start in his seventh playoff at Buffalo. He’s straight he’s 3-3 and against the spread he’s 2-4.

Baltimore is a 6.5 point underdog against Cincinnati this weekend. If Lamar Jackson can’t go, this trend also applies to those under Baltimore’s center.

Jackson is 1-3 against straight-ups and spreads in his playoff career. Joe Burrow, on the other hand, is 4-0 against the spread and 3-1 in the straights in the playoffs. All of this, of course, happened last season as Cincinnati advanced to the Super Bowl.