Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot Update

‘It’s season. Hall of Fame season, that is. He is less than two weeks away from the 2023 Baseball Writers Association of America poll results being announced live on MLB Network on January 24. Ryan Thibodeau’s Hall of Fame Tracker.

We asked Thibodaux for the insight behind the numbers as part of this FAQ-style primer (all info as of 5pm ET on Sunday).

1. Let’s start with the big question. Who will be elected in this ballot?

Currently, the frontrunner on the ballot is former All-Star third baseman Scott Rolen, who has 80.6% of the vote (75% of the vote is needed for an election to Cooperstown). It’s worth noting here that this applies to the totals of all candidates in the public vote tracker, but when all are completed, the votes that remain private are checked next to a minority of candidates. It means that it tends to be marked.

Lauren is on her sixth ballot and each candidate is eligible for BBWAA voting for 10 years. The seven-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove winner at third base has had a huge following over the last few years, and the trend of things is that it seems likely that Lauren will end up being elected.

Will Lauren be elected on the ballot this year? That should be up 11.8% from last year’s 63.2%.

“We have seen candidates close a much larger gap on the way to being elected (Larry Walker, for example, from 54.6% in 2019 to 76.6% in 2020),” he said. rice field. “But what works against Lauren is that she doesn’t have the same ‘last chance to vote’ urgency as Walker (and Tim Raines and Edgar Martinez before him).” , but it’s not overwhelming and he really looks like he’s riding a bubble this year. It could go either way.

But aside from Lauren, it doesn’t look like anyone else could actually get voted out this year.

“Like 2021, this looks like a vote that may not have a BBWAA winner,” Thibodeau said. “…Todd Helton got off to an incredibly strong start, leading all candidates at 130 votes, with +22 votes (I voted for him this year, but last year voters who didn’t vote).He has to rise even higher than Lauren, who finished at 52% last year.

“It is possible that this frenetic pace of votes will continue throughout the cycle and that Helton will be elected this year, but the more likely scenario is that he will make a significant leap compared to last year’s results and be elected. Billy Wagner is in much the same position as Helton and is gaining new voters at a similar rate.”

2. Given his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, Carlos Beltran doesn’t look like he’ll be enlisting this year. But will he be elected in the end?

Beltrán has a paper résumé to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. He was his 1999 American League Rookie of the Year, a nine-time All-Star, and three-time Gold in Center Field. He hit 435 homers and had a .837 OPS. But even with those track records, his role in the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal could be hurting him in the polls.

“Based on everything we’ve seen in the past, we expect most candidates, including Bertrand, to fall from what Tracker currently shows to what the end result will be,” Thibodeau said. “Even so, it looks like Beltran could get over (or close to) 50% on the first ballot, and many voters have been waiting for a year (or possibly a penalty for Beltran for the sign-stealing scandal.

“Many people who did not check his box this year seem to have intended to include him in future votes. I don’t think it’s a problem unless it’s extremely severe. If Bertrand will be elected, but it will simply take years.”

3. Who did the biggest jump of the year?

Helton gets the most attention in this area, and it’s no surprise considering he currently leads the polls in last year’s votes. The former Rocky first baseman won his 52% of the vote last year, and this year, his fifth year on the ballot, he could break his 60%-plus barrier.

But Helton isn’t the only candidate who has benefited greatly from this vote so far.

“There are several candidates running here,” Thibodeau said. “Throughout 130 polls, the leaders for ‘net votes’ (change of mind compared to last year) were Helton at +22, Andrew Jones at +21, Jeff Kent at +21 and Gary Sheffield at +19. , and +19 is Wagner.

“Kent is entering its 10th and final year on the ballot and could benefit from the ‘final year upswing’ we have seen so many times before. Sheffield’s final year is next year and he must show a strong result well above the 40.6 percent vote last year has a chance in the next election. Jones is right behind them.I’m not surprised.The five candidates who made the biggest leap year-over-year.”

4. Who is at risk of falling below 5% and becoming a one-time vote on this poll?

If a candidate does not reach 5 percent or more of the votes on any given ballot, that candidate is removed from the list entirely. Which rookie candidate whose fate is at stake?

“Bertrand and Francisco Rodríguez are the only first candidates to record votes so far. Beltran is clearly safe for future votes. I’m voting in and only need an estimated 9 more votes to secure my second year with the last two-thirds of the votes. candidates have all received 0 votes and are in danger of becoming a one-off (Matt Cain, RA Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Johnny Peralta, Houston Street) .

“Among return candidates, Torey Hunter is currently trailing 2.3%, but his votes are net +2 and are not declining. All other re-election candidates should have enough support to secure 5% safely. It looks like you got it.”