1) The five model/“computer” predictions I used (publicly available projections)
I collected five reputable, public model projections / computer-pick pages that provide a final-score projection for Lions @ Ravens — Sep 22, 2025:
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SportsBettingDime projection — Ravens 38.5, Lions 27.1.
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OddsShark computer prediction — Ravens 27.4, Lions 20.6.
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Dimers simulations — Ravens 30, Lions 24.
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ATS.io projection — Ravens 31, Lions 27.
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BigAl handicappers (computerized pick) — Ravens 38, Lions 35.
(Notes: some paywalled services like SportsLine/BETQL have subscriber-only simulation outputs — SportsLine shows their model favors Baltimore and lists injury context but hides the exact projected score behind a paywall. I used the five public/computer projections above so we can average real score numbers. See the SportsLine and ESPN pages for matchup/injury context.)
2) Average of those 5 model score predictions (the “consensus model”)
Take the five projections above and average the team scores:
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Average — Ravens: (38.5 + 27.4 + 30 + 31 + 38) ÷ 5 = 32.98 ≈ 33 points.
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Average — Lions: (27.1 + 20.6 + 24 + 27 + 35) ÷ 5 = 26.74 ≈ 27 points.
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Consensus final score (mean): Ravens 33 — Lions 27.
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Consensus total: ≈ 59.7 points (well above the market total 53.5).
3) My independent prediction (method + numbers)
Inputs I used
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Pythagorean expectation (using current PF/PA shown in ESPN standings snapshot for the season to date — small sample but useful): ESPN lists team scoring/allowed early-season totals (DET PF 65 / PA 48; BAL PF 81 / PA 58). I used a standard NFL Pythagorean exponent (~2.37) to estimate expected win% (this is only a guide because it’s very early in the season). Result: Detroit ≈ 67.2% Pythagorean win rate, Baltimore ≈ 68.8% (so both teams’ early scoring/allowing numbers are similar — small-sample noise).
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Strength of schedule / opponent quality (context): Baltimore has already faced tougher early opposition (Buffalo + Cleveland) compared with Detroit (Chicago + Green Bay). That pushes my edge slightly toward Baltimore.
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Injury & lineup news: key items from ESPN / SportsLine injury reports:
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Ravens: Patrick Ricard (calf) out; Isaiah Likely (foot) out; other linchpins listed as out/ questionable on team pages. Losing Likely & Ricard reduces short-yardage/TE/big-body blocking options but Baltimore still has multiple weapons (Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry).
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Lions: multiple questionable names listed (D.J. Reed, Kerby Joseph, Jack Campbell, Taylor Decker listed questionable) — offensive line / defensive availability could be impactful.
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Recent form / matchup trends: Baltimore’s offense has shown explosiveness (40+ point outputs across the two weeks for them), Detroit’s offense showed a 52-point explosion last game — this argues for a higher total. Public/ sharper money trends also show heavy action on Baltimore.
Short numeric model (synthesis)
Combining:
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Pythagorean guidance (teams roughly similar on early-season scoring metrics),
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SOS tilt toward Baltimore (harder opponents already faced for Ravens but they still scored big),
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injuries: Baltimore missing some role pieces (Likely/Ricard) but still deeper top-end talent; Detroit has several questionables that could weaken their D or O-line,
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and the model consensus (see section 2),
I project a slightly smaller margin than the consensus mean but still favor Baltimore:
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My projected final score: Baltimore Ravens 30 — Detroit Lions 26.
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My projected total: 56 points.
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My projected margin: Ravens by 4 points.
(Reasoning in one line: consensus model margin ≈ +6 to Baltimore; injuries and Pythagorean noise reduce the expected margin a bit — I land on Ravens +4.)
4) News & injury check (breaking items that could swing the game)
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ESPN and SportsLine list Isaiah Likely (BAL — TE) and Patrick Ricard (BAL — FB) out. Those reduce some short-yardage / blocking/second-level help for Baltimore but not their primary playmakers (Jackson, Henry, Flowers, Andrews).
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Lions have multiple questionable designations (D.J. Reed, Kerby Joseph, Jack Campbell, Taylor Decker). If any of those (especially Taylor Decker or Jack Campbell) miss the game that would be meaningful to Detroit’s protection/lineup and could tilt it more toward Baltimore. Check latest pregame official injury reports — I used the ESPN / SportsLine snapshots currently available.
5) Compare averaged-model consensus vs my analysis, and the final pick
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Model consensus (average of 5 public predictions): Ravens 33 — Lions 27 (Ravens by ~6). Consensus total ≈ 59.7 (significantly > market 53.5).
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My projection: Ravens 30 — Lions 26 (Ravens by 4). Total ≈ 56. (Slightly lower than the consensus for both teams, factoring in injuries & Pythagorean noise.)
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Edge / Pick: I prefer Baltimore (side): take the Ravens at -4.5.
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Rationale: the consensus of multiple public computer models gives Baltimore a 5–7 point edge; my independent synthesis still favors Baltimore though by a slightly smaller margin (4). The market spread is 4.5 — consensus suggests Baltimore should cover; my own number is borderline for covering but still slightly favors Baltimore. Between a bet on the Ravens -4.5 and the Ravens moneyline, I’d take Ravens -4.5 (better price than ML, and models support cover). Confidence: moderate (≈55–60%) — not an orthodoxy-level smash, but a reasonable edge backed by multiple models, matchup context, and home-field advantage in primetime for Lamar Jackson.
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6) Alternative / prop notes (if you prefer other markets)
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Total (Over/Under 53.5): Most public computer projections and my view point toward a higher total (consensus ~59.7; my 56) — lean Over if you want a prop side — but be aware early-season variance and turnovers can swing totals.
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Player props: Watch Lamar Jackson rushing yards props — primetime + home + matchup vs Detroit (who can struggle against mobile QBs) suggests rushing prop could be playable. Also Zay Flowers and Derrick Henry anytime-TD are frequently mentioned. (See Action Network / Covers prop previews.)
