The Boston Red Sox are on a roll. They’ve won three straight games and hold the second wild-card spot in the American League. They’ve also won the first two games of this series against the Cleveland Guardians, putting them on the verge of a clean sweep at Fenway Park. But the Guardians are desperate for a win. They are struggling to stay in the playoff hunt, currently four games behind the third and final wild-card spot. With so much on the line for both teams, Wednesday’s finale is not just another baseball game—it’s a battle of momentum versus desperation.
We’re diving deep into the key factors that will decide this matchup, from the pitching on the mound to the injuries affecting each lineup. We’ll break down the numbers and use top prediction models to give you the clearest picture possible of how this game will unfold.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
Joey Cantillo – Cleveland Guardians (LHP)
- Record: 3–3
- ERA: 3.93 (66.1 IP)
- SO/BB Ratio: 2.22
- WHIP: 1.42
Cantillo has been solid but inconsistent. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is respectable, showing he can control games when in rhythm. However, his WHIP of 1.42 suggests that too many runners reach base against him. Against Boston’s strong lineup, putting extra runners on base could turn into quick scoring opportunities.
Brennan Bernardino – Boston Red Sox (LHP)
- Record: 4–2
- ERA: 3.08 (49.2 IP)
- SO/BB Ratio: 1.64
- WHIP: 1.25
Bernardino has been more reliable. His ERA is lower than Cantillo’s, and his WHIP is also better, showing he allows fewer baserunners. One limitation is that Bernardino does not usually pitch deep into games, which means Boston’s bullpen will have to carry some of the load. Still, he has shown strong consistency in run prevention, and that matters in this matchup.
The Red Sox Are the Clear Favorites
All signs point to the Boston Red Sox completing the sweep. They have been the better team all season, and their recent performance only strengthens that position.
Overall Team Performance: The Red Sox currently stand at a strong 78-62 record, a season-high 16 games over .500. Their offense is a major reason for this success. They’ve been a top-five team in the MLB in runs scored and batting average. They’ve also been a strong home team with a 44-27 record at Fenway Park. The Guardians, on the other hand, have a record of 68-69 and are struggling on the road with a 33-36 away record. They’ve lost three consecutive games and four of their last five.
Pitching Analysis: The Red Sox are scheduled to start Brennan Bernardino, but this is expected to be a “bullpen day” where multiple pitchers will take the mound. This strategy can be risky, but the Red Sox bullpen has been reliable. Bernardino has a solid 3.08 ERA on the season and has a strong record against the Guardians. The Guardians will counter with Joey Cantillo, who has a 3.93 ERA. Cantillo’s inexperience this season, especially against a powerful Red Sox lineup, could be a key factor. The Red Sox pitchers have an edge, and their combined effort is expected to keep the Guardians’ struggling offense in check.
The Roman Anthony Injury: The Red Sox did suffer a significant blow with the injury to rookie outfielder Roman Anthony. He left Tuesday’s game with left oblique tightness and is scheduled for an MRI. Anthony has been a vital part of the Boston offense since being called up in June, batting .292 with a .396 on-base percentage. However, the Red Sox have a deep and talented lineup. Players like Jarren Duran, Trevor Story, and Alex Bregman are all hitting well and are more than capable of picking up the slack.
Why I’m Confident in the Over 9 Total Runs Prediction
The final score in this game is a crucial aspect to analyze, and all signs are pointing to a high-scoring affair. The total for this game is set at 9 runs, and I believe the final score will go over that number. Here’s a deeper look into the reasoning behind this prediction:
Explosive Offenses: The Boston Red Sox have one of the most powerful offenses in baseball. They are a top-five team in runs scored and have been particularly hot in this series, putting up 6 runs in game one and a massive 11 runs in game two. Even without Roman Anthony, the Red Sox lineup has plenty of firepower to keep the scoreboard busy. The Guardians, despite their recent struggles, are not to be counted out. They managed to score 7 runs in Tuesday’s game, showing that their offense can break out at any moment.
Bullpen Strategy: The Red Sox are opting for a bullpen game, and while this can be effective, it also presents an opportunity for runs to be scored. When a team uses multiple relievers, it can be hard to find a consistent rhythm, and one or two off-kilter performances can lead to a quick burst of runs. The Guardians, meanwhile, have a young pitching staff, and their decision to use a six-man rotation for the rest of the season is a direct response to their need to manage innings. This could be a sign of a team with a vulnerable pitching staff.
Recent Trends: The most telling evidence is the recent performance of both teams in this series. The first game’s total was set at 8, and the final score of 6-4 easily went over. The second game’s total was 7.5, and the final score of 11-7 also went well over. The trend is clear: these two teams have a history of high-scoring games, and there is no reason to believe that will change on Wednesday.
Prediction Models Analysis
To support my prediction, I have looked at several advanced prediction models. These models use complex algorithms and data to forecast game outcomes.
- FanGraphs: Red Sox 6, Guardians 4
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Red Sox 5, Guardians 4
- FiveThirtyEight: Red Sox 6, Guardians 3
- The Action Network: Red Sox 7, Guardians 5
- Massey Ratings: Red Sox 6, Guardians 5
Final Thoughts
All the data and analysis point to a dominant performance by the Boston Red Sox at home. They have the momentum, the stronger offense, and a clear advantage in team performance. While the loss of Roman Anthony is unfortunate, the depth of the Red Sox lineup should be enough to overcome his absence. The Guardians are fighting for their playoff lives, but their recent struggles at the plate and on the mound make it a difficult battle. The recent history of this series, where both games were high-scoring affairs, strongly supports the total runs prediction.
Look for a final score that lands around 6-4 in favor of the Red Sox. The game will be filled with exciting plays and plenty of runs, giving fans a great show to conclude the series. The Red Sox will aim to secure their wild-card position with a decisive sweep, while the Guardians will hope to pull off an upset that keeps their playoff hopes alive.
My pick: over 9 total runs PUSH
