Expert Picks: The Smart Money on Rays vs. Angels (Aug 5)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels continue their midweek series on August 5, 2025, in a matchup that could have implications for both teams’ late-season playoff pushes. With identical near-.500 records (Rays 55-59, Angels 55-58), this game could swing momentum for either squad as they try to stay alive in the Wild Card race.

The Angels took Game 1 of the series with a 5-1 victory, showcasing strong pitching and timely hitting. Now, Tampa Bay will look to bounce back behind Ryan Pepiot, while Los Angeles counters with hard-throwing right-hander José Soriano. Both pitchers have had up-and-down seasons, but Soriano’s home success (3.50 ERA at Angel Stadium) could give his team an edge.

Key Storylines to Watch

1. Pitching Duel: Can Pepiot Silence the Angels’ Bats?

Ryan Pepiot has been serviceable for the Rays this season (4.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), but he has struggled against right-handed hitters (.275 BAA). The Angels’ lineup, though missing Jorge Soler and Anthony Rendon, still has threats like Taylor Ward and Logan O’Hoppe. If Pepiot can’t keep the ball in the park, this game could slip away early.

2. Soriano’s Home Dominance

José Soriano has been a bright spot for the Angels, particularly at home, where he boasts a 3.50 ERA. His ability to generate strikeouts (9.0 K/9) could neutralize a Rays lineup that has been inconsistent on the road (3-7 in last 10 away games). If Soriano delivers another quality start, the Angels will be in a strong position to secure another win.

3. Injuries Impacting Both Lineups

The Rays are without key contributors like Shane McClanahan (ace SP) and Jonathan Aranda (middle-of-the-order bat), while the Angels are missing Jorge Soler’s power bat. The depth of each team’s bench could play a crucial role in late-game situations.

4. Bullpen & Recent Trends

• The Rays’ bullpen has been shaky, ranking middle of the pack in ERA (4.05).

• The Angels’ relievers have been slightly better, with a 3.92 ERA over the last two weeks.

What’s at Stake?

With both teams hovering around .500, every win matters in the crowded AL Wild Card race. The Angels have a chance to build momentum before a tough upcoming schedule, while the Rays need to turn things around quickly to stay in contention.

Will Tampa Bay’s offense wake up against Soriano? Or will the Angels’ pitching staff continue their recent dominance? Stay tuned for our full prediction and best bets—including AI model consensus, advanced metrics, and the final score projection—coming up next!

Top 5 AI Betting Models’ Predictions

Average AI Prediction:

• Angels 4.2 – Rays 3.8

• Consensus Pick: Angels ML (-117) & Under 8

Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule

• Rays:

  • Runs Scored (RS): 4.1 | Runs Allowed (RA): 4.3

  • Pythagorean Win %: 0.483 (Expected W-L: ~54-60)

  • SOS Rank: 12th (Slightly Harder Schedule)

• Angels:

  • RS: 4.4 | RA: 4.5

  • Pythagorean Win %: 0.491 (Expected W-L: ~55-58)

  • SOS Rank: 18th (Average Schedule)

Predicted Score (Pythagorean Adjusted):

• Angels 4.4 – Rays 4.1

Key Factors & Trends

Pitching Matchup:

• Ryan Pepiot (Rays): 4.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.5 K/9

  • Struggles vs. RHB (.275 BAA)

• José Soriano (Angels): 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

  • Strong at home (3.50 ERA)

Injuries Impact:

• Rays Missing: Shane McClanahan (Ace SP), Jonathan Aranda (Key Bat)

• Angels Missing: Jorge Soler (Power Bat), Anthony Rendon (Veteran Presence)

Recent Trends:

• Angels won 5-1 yesterday (Momentum)

Final Prediction (Combined AI + Our Model)

Pick

• Take Los Angeles Angels -117 Moneyline. ***LOSE***

Reasoning:

• Angels have a slight edge in pitching (Soriano > Pepiot)

• Injuries weaken Rays’ offense