The Detroit Tigers return home on Monday night, July 7, to host the Tampa Bay Rays after an exciting weekend sweep of the Cleveland Guardians. Meanwhile, the Rays are grinding through a long road trip and arrive in Detroit off a 10-inning win in Minnesota. With both teams showing recent resilience and high-energy performances, tonight’s game has the potential to be competitive and close. But for fans and prediction followers, the key question is this: Will the total runs stay under 9?
After a detailed review of the starting pitchers, team trends, and several trusted baseball prediction models, this blog aims to give you the clearest insight into that answer.
Pitching Matchup: Shane Baz vs. Keider Montero
Tampa Bay Rays – Shane Baz (RHP)
- Record: 8–3
- ERA: 4.33
- WHIP: 1.25
- Strikeouts/Walk Ratio: 2.69
Baz has been reliable for Tampa Bay this season, especially over his last few starts. On June 26, he threw eight scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against the Royals. His most recent outing saw him record 11 strikeouts in seven innings against the Athletics. He gave up just three runs despite allowing seven hits. Baz is finding his rhythm, and his strikeout ability is showing real improvement.
However, the last time Baz faced the Tigers on June 20, he allowed five earned runs in just over five innings. Still, that outing came during a rough stretch for Baz, and his form has significantly improved since then.
Detroit Tigers – Keider Montero (RHP)
- Record: 3–1
- ERA: 4.02
- WHIP: 1.39
- Strikeouts/Walk Ratio: 1.95
Montero has quietly given the Tigers stability on the mound. He hasn’t pitched deep into games regularly, but he limits damage and avoids giving up big innings. Tampa Bay hasn’t faced him yet, and that unfamiliarity can work to Montero’s advantage early in the game. His ability to pitch efficiently and keep hitters off balance will be crucial.
Recent Team Performance
Detroit Tigers
- Coming off a three-game sweep of Cleveland
- Scored 6 runs in the 10th inning on Sunday to secure a 7–2 win
- Lead the AL Central by 13.5 games
Despite injuries to key players like Kerry Carpenter, the Tigers have stepped up with strong team play. Trey Sweeney, recently called back up due to Carpenter’s injury, hit a clutch home run Sunday to break open the game in extra innings.
Tampa Bay Rays
- Won 7–5 in 10 innings on Sunday against Minnesota
- Lost five of their previous six before that
- Currently in the middle of a 10-game road trip
Tampa Bay is struggling to find consistency. They’ve had bright moments from hitters like Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe, though Lowe is day-to-day with side soreness. That may affect the Rays’ offensive depth in this game.
Bullpen & Injury Reports
Both teams went into extra innings on Sunday, but neither bullpen was overused. Tampa’s relief group has an ERA under 4.00, and Detroit’s bullpen has been dependable, even with injuries to Jason Foley and Alex Lange.
Injuries to watch:
- Rays: Brandon Lowe (probable), Jonathan Hernandez (out)
- Tigers: Kerry Carpenter (out), Alex Lange (out), Jason Foley (out for the season)
Five Model Score Predictions
To support this pick, here are the projected final scores using five trusted and successful baseball prediction models:
- TeamRankings.com Model: Tigers 4 – Rays 3
- NumberFire Power Projection: Tigers 3.9 – Rays 3.6
- Massey Ratings System: Tigers 4.2 – Rays 3.8
- ESPN Matchup Predictor (Adjusted): Tigers 4 – Rays 4
- Baseball-Reference Simulation Average: Tigers 3.8 – Rays 3.5
Average Predicted Total Runs: 7.9
All five models forecast a combined score under the 9-run line, pointing to a lower-scoring game based on pitching matchups, run environments, and recent player performance.
Why I’m Confident in the Under 9 Total Runs Prediction
This prediction is supported by a combination of strong pitching, lineup limitations, and current team situations:
- Improving Pitching Form – Shane Baz is on a solid upward trend with two excellent recent starts. Keider Montero has been dependable and is still unknown to Rays hitters, making the first few innings likely to be low-scoring.
- Injury-Impact on Lineups – The Tigers are missing a key power bat in Kerry Carpenter, and the Rays might be without Brandon Lowe or may choose to limit his at-bats. Without their top run producers at full strength, both teams will likely struggle to create early offense.
- Tired Bats, Not Bullpens – Though both teams played extra-inning games on Sunday, bullpens were not overly taxed. The wear and tear will be felt more in the lineups than in the pitching.
- Road Fatigue for Tampa – The Rays are deep into a long road trip, which can sap energy and timing at the plate. Detroit is coming off an emotional high, but those games often turn into more cautious starts the next day.
- Historical Trend for Both Starters – Montero’s games tend to stay under 9 runs. Baz has shown he can dominate lineups that haven’t seen him much recently, and Detroit has been inconsistent offensively since Carpenter’s injury.
All signs point toward a competitive game with limited run production. With both starters capable of going five-plus innings and neither lineup at full strength, a final score between 6–8 total runs is the most probable outcome.
Final Thoughts
With Shane Baz in great form and Keider Montero flying under the radar, this looks like a matchup built for a lower-scoring result. The injury concerns for both teams, recent road fatigue for Tampa Bay, and consistent model support for a score under 9 all reinforce this prediction.
A smart read of this game highlights the pitching more than the offense. For followers and fans alike, the under 9 total runs stands out as a strong and well-supported prediction for this July 7 showdown in Detroit.
My pick: under 9 total runs WIN
