Pirates’ Cinderella Run Continues—Or Will the Cardinals Finally Wake Up?

As the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off on July 2, 2025, this midweek matchup carries more weight than a typical divisional game. The Cardinals, sitting at 47-40 and fighting for playoff positioning, look to avoid a stunning three-game sweep at the hands of the Pirates, who have already taken the first two contests in surprising fashion. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh, despite their 37-50 record and last-place standing, has shown unexpected resilience, shutting out St. Louis in back-to-back games.

A Tale of Two Teams Heading in Opposite Directions

The Cardinals entered this series with momentum, but the Pirates’ pitching staff silenced their bats in 7-0 and 1-0 victories. Now, St. Louis must regroup behind veteran ace Sonny Gray, who brings stability to the mound against Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller. Gray’s ability to dominate weak-hitting lineups could be the antidote to the Cardinals’ recent offensive struggles. On the other side, Keller has been inconsistent this season, but his recent outings suggest he could keep Pittsburgh competitive if he avoids early trouble.

Key Storylines to Watch

• Will the Cardinals’ Bats Wake Up? After being shut out in consecutive games, St. Louis’ offense—featuring stars like Paul Goldschmidt and (if healthy) Nolan Arenado—is due for a breakout.

• Pirates’ Bullpen Woes: Pittsburgh’s relief corps is decimated by injuries, which could spell trouble if Keller exits early.

• Sonny Gray’s Dominance: Gray’s elite strikeout ability could exploit a Pirates lineup missing key power threats.

• Small Ball vs. Power: The Pirates have relied on manufacturing runs, while the Cardinals need their sluggers to deliver in clutch spots.

Injury Impact: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

The Cardinals are hopeful that Arenado and Willson Contreras return to the lineup, as their presence would provide a major boost. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s injury list is lengthy, with Jared Jones and multiple relievers sidelined, potentially forcing them into risky bullpen decisions late in the game.

What’s at Stake?

For the Cardinals, this game is about avoiding a disastrous sweep and staying in the NL Wild Card hunt. For the Pirates, it’s a chance to play spoiler and build momentum for the second half.

As the first pitch approaches, all eyes will be on whether St. Louis can finally solve Pittsburgh’s pitching—or if the Pirates will complete a stunning sweep. One thing is certain: This won’t be a game short on drama.

MLB AI Betting Models’ Predictions

• Cardinals: ~4.2 runs

• Pirates: ~3.5 runs

• Projected Total: ~7.7 runs (slightly under the 8-run line)

• Implied Win Probability: Cardinals ~55% (slight edge due to pitching & lineup strength)

Enhanced Prediction Model (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

Key Factors Considered:

✅ Pythagorean Win Expectation (Run Differential Adjusted)

• Cardinals: 47-40 (expected W-L ≈ 45-42) → slightly overperforming

• Pirates: 37-50 (expected W-L ≈ 35-52) → slightly overperforming

✅ Strength of Schedule (Recent Opponents)

• Cardinals: Faced tougher opponents (vs. Pirates’ weaker schedule)

• Pirates: Recent wins vs. Cardinals, but overall weaker offense

✅ Pitching Matchup (Sonny Gray vs. Mitch Keller)

• Sonny Gray (STL): Strong ERA (~3.10), high strikeout rate, better recent form

• Mitch Keller (PIT): Decent but inconsistent (~4.00 ERA), prone to blowups

✅ Injuries & Lineup Impact

• Cardinals: Nolan Arenado & Willson Contreras (probable) → big boost if playing

• Pirates: Missing Jared Jones (SP), multiple relievers → bullpen vulnerability

✅ Recent Trends

• Pirates won last 2 vs. Cardinals (7-0, 1-0), but both were low-scoring

• Cardinals’ offense due for regression to mean (unlikely to be shut out again)

Final Adjusted Prediction

• Cardinals: 4.5 runs

• Pirates: 3.1 runs

• Projected Total: 7.6 runs (Lean Under 8)

• Moneyline Value: Cardinals (better pitching, lineup due for positive regression)

Consensus vs. Our Model

Pick:

• Take St. Louis Cardinals -123 Moneyline.