After 22 Runs, Will Offense Dominate Again? Rays vs. Orioles Betting Guide

The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles continue their divisional clash on June 28, 2025, in what promises to be another thrilling matchup at Camden Yards. After last night’s offensive explosion—a 22-8 Orioles victory—both teams will look to either sustain their momentum or bounce back in a critical AL East battle.

Pitching Duel: Littell vs. Eflin

The Rays will send Zack Littell to the mound, hoping his steady command (3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) can neutralize an Orioles lineup that erupted for 22 runs in their previous meeting. On the other side, Zach Eflin takes the ball for Baltimore, looking to improve upon his 4.45 ERA this season. While Eflin has struggled against power-hitting teams, Tampa Bay’s offense is missing key contributors, which could play to his advantage.

Injury Woes Impacting Both Lineups

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries that could shape tonight’s outcome. The Rays are without Ha-seong Kim, Jonny DeLuca, and Shane McClanahan, weakening their infield defense and bullpen depth. Meanwhile, the Orioles are missing Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Tyler O’Neill, three critical bats that have powered their lineup in recent seasons.

Divisional Standings & Playoff Implications

With the Rays (46-36) sitting in 2nd place and the Orioles (35-46) in 5th, this game carries different weights for each club. Tampa Bay is fighting to keep pace in a tight AL Wild Card race, while Baltimore is looking to climb out of the division cellar and reignite their season.

Recent Trends & What to Watch

• Orioles’ Offensive Surge: After last night’s historic 22-run outburst, can they maintain that firepower, or will regression hit?

• Rays’ Road Performance: Tampa Bay has been strong away from Tropicana Field, but their bullpen injuries could be a factor late in the game.

• Total Runs Market: The over/under is set at 10 runs, suggesting another high-scoring affair could be in store.

As the first pitch approaches, all eyes will be on whether the Orioles can replicate their offensive fireworks or if the Rays’ pitching staff can restore order. With playoff implications heating up, this AL East showdown is one you won’t want to miss.

Top 5 AI Betting Model Predictions 

2. Our Enhanced Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

Key Factors:

• Pythagorean Win Expectation (Runs Scored/Allowed):

  • Rays: 4.65 RS / 4.25 RA → Expected Win% ~ 54.5%

  • Orioles: 4.50 RS / 5.10 RA → Expected Win% ~ 43.7%

• Strength of Schedule (SoS):

  • Rays: Tougher schedule (facing more top-10 offenses)

  • Orioles: Easier schedule (weaker pitching opponents)

• Pitching Matchup:

  • Zack Littell (Rays): 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP (solid control)

  • Zach Eflin (Orioles): 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (struggles vs. power bats)

• Injuries:

  • Rays: Missing key bats (Ha-seong Kim, Jonny DeLuca) and bullpen arms.

  • Orioles: Missing Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Tyler O’Neill (big offensive losses).

• Recent Form:

  • Orioles won 22-8 yesterday, but regression is likely (outlier game).

  • Rays have been more consistent overall.

Our Predicted Score:

• Rays: ~4.9 runs

• Orioles: ~5.1 runs

• Total: 10.0 runs (matches Vegas line)

3. Combined Prediction (AI Models + Our Analysis)

Betting Recommendation

• Moneyline: Slight edge to Orioles (-104) (higher predicted runs, home field).

• Key Notes:

  • Orioles’ bullpen is weakened, but the Rays’ missing key bats.

  • High-scoring trend likely continues (yesterday’s game was extreme, but both teams have offensive upside).

Pick:

• Take the Baltimore Orioles  -104 Moneyline.