As seasoned bettors know, predicting the exact outcome of a baseball game is a fool’s errand. However, discerning trends, analyzing matchups, and understanding situational factors can transform speculation into calculated risk. Today, we delve into the second game of the Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers series on Wednesday, June 25, 2025, and why the Over 8 runs total presents a compelling and intelligent betting opportunity.
The Tigers, currently sitting at an impressive 50-30 record, are looking to continue their strong season, while the Athletics, at 32-49, are hoping to find some consistency. Yesterday’s 11-4 Tigers victory already hints at an offensive surge, and a deeper dive into the pitching matchup, team offenses, and bullpen dynamics further solidifies the “over” play.
The Pitching Predicament: A Recipe for Runs
At the heart of any MLB total bet lies the starting pitching matchup. For today’s game, we have a fascinating contrast between Oakland’s Jacob Lopez and Detroit’s Jack Flaherty, both of whom present pathways to runs.
Jack Flaherty (Detroit Tigers): A Fading Form
Flaherty (5-8, 4.83 ERA) has been experiencing a significant downturn in his recent starts. After a promising stretch with a 3.41 ERA, his last two outings have been disastrous. On June 14, he was shelled for seven runs in 4 2/3 innings against Cincinnati, issuing five walks and giving up three home runs. His most recent start on Friday against Tampa Bay was even shorter, surrendering eight runs in just 2 1/3 innings, ballooning his ERA to 4.83.
Detroit manager A.J. Hinch explicitly pointed to “execution” as Flaherty’s primary issue, noting “a lot of pitches in the middle.” This indicates a pitcher struggling with command and leaving the ball over the plate, a dangerous proposition against any major league lineup. While Flaherty is a veteran and capable of turning things around, his current form suggests vulnerability. Furthermore, his career numbers against the Athletics are not encouraging: 1-2 with a high 7.03 ERA in three starts. This historical context, coupled with his current struggles, paints a clear picture of a pitcher who could easily give up runs.
Jacob Lopez (Oakland Athletics): The Promising but Unproven Left-Hander
On the other side, Jacob Lopez (1-4, 4.25 ERA) has shown flashes of brilliance recently, allowing only one earned run in his last three outings. He’s coming off impressive starts against Kansas City (6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 9 K) and Houston (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 9 K). Lopez’s success stems from a “funky delivery” and a five-pitch mix (four-seam, slider, cutter, changeup, sinker) that keeps hitters off-balance, despite a fastball that averages only 90.6 mph. His ability to generate whiffs at an elite level (31% on fastball and slider) is certainly a strength, and his recent confidence is high.
However, it’s crucial to consider the context. Lopez is still a relatively young starter with limited major league experience (only 10 appearances, 8 starts this season). While he’s been hot, sustaining such dominance for an extended period, especially against an aggressive lineup like the Tigers, can be challenging. His below-average fastball velocity, even with deception, can be exploited if he misses his spots. The Tigers will be looking to get on base and force him to work deeper into counts, testing his command.
Offensive Firepower and Bullpen Blunders
Beyond the starting pitching, the offensive capabilities and bullpen reliability of both teams are critical factors in evaluating the total.
Detroit Tigers Offense: Heating Up at Home
The Tigers’ offense showed its potency in yesterday’s 11-4 victory. Key players like Riley Greene, who had four hits, and power threats Kerry Carpenter and Dillon Dingler, who both homered, demonstrated their ability to score runs in bunches. Detroit’s lineup has been strong, boasting a .254 team batting average (5th in MLB) and a .422 slugging percentage (4th in MLB). They have the depth and power to take advantage of any mistakes by Lopez or the A’s bullpen.
Oakland Athletics Offense: More Than Meets the Eye
While the A’s record might not inspire confidence, their offense has some surprising pop. They rank 7th in the league in home runs with 100 this season. Players like Brent Rooker (16 HR) and Tyler Soderstrom (14 HR) can change a game with one swing. Jacob Wilson has been a revelation, batting .353 for the season. Despite their struggles, they are capable of putting up runs, especially against a struggling pitcher like Flaherty. The “move on to the next one” mentality from Flaherty might mean he’s mentally checked out, giving the A’s a chance to jump on him early.
The Bullpens: A Potential Run-Scoring Vortex
Both bullpens have shown inconsistencies that could contribute to the over.
Oakland Athletics Bullpen: A Continuing Concern
The Athletics’ bullpen has been a major weak point throughout the season, particularly in May where they posted a collective 6.03 ERA, which was third-worst in MLB. Their struggles extend into the later innings, with a 5.07 ERA from the seventh inning on, ranking in the bottom five. While they’ve had some recent good performances, the overall trend suggests vulnerability. If Lopez has to exit early due to command issues or high pitch count, the A’s pen could easily concede runs, especially if the game is tight.
Detroit Tigers Bullpen: Strengths with a Glaring Weakness
The Tigers bullpen has been generally effective in 2025, but they have a crucial weakness: they don’t miss bats. Their relievers give up a lot of contact, which, even if not always hard contact, increases the chances of balls in play and potential defensive mishaps. While Comerica Park is considered pitcher-friendly (22nd in Park Factors Leaderboard), it ranks 13th in singles and 4th in triples, meaning contact can still lead to runs. If Flaherty exits early and the Tigers’ contact-heavy bullpen takes over, the A’s could string together hits.
Situational Factors and Trends
- Yesterday’s Game: The 11-4 score is a strong indicator of both teams’ ability to score and the potential for a high-scoring affair. When teams light up the scoreboard in the first game of a series, it often sets a precedent.
- Comerica Park: While generally pitcher-friendly, it’s not a graveyard for offense. The dimensions and the recent offensive explosion suggest runs are certainly possible.
- Betting Market: Notably, early betting models and experts are also leaning towards the over on the 8.0 total, as seen in NBC Sports Bet’s recommendation. This consensus from professional analysis adds weight to our argument.
Evaluating Outcomes: Why Over 8 is the Smart Bet
Considering all these factors, a final score exceeding 8 runs seems highly probable. Here’s a breakdown of possible scenarios:
- Flaherty struggles, A’s score early: Given Flaherty’s recent form and career struggles against the A’s, it’s very plausible the Athletics jump out to an early lead, driving his pitch count up and forcing an early exit.
- Lopez has a rare off-night: While Lopez has been good, regression is always a possibility for young pitchers. A few missed spots could lead to hard contact and runs for the potent Tigers lineup.
- Bullpen meltdowns: Even if both starters perform adequately, the inherent weaknesses in both bullpens (A’s struggling to close, Tigers giving up contact) create a significant risk for late-game scoring.
- Offensive continuation: Both offenses have shown signs of life, with the Tigers having a particularly good outing yesterday. The momentum could carry over.
- High-leverage hits: With runners on base, a single or double can quickly turn into multiple runs. Both teams have players capable of these timely hits.
The combined vulnerabilities of the starting pitchers, coupled with the offensive capabilities of both teams and the historical inconsistencies of their bullpens, strongly suggest a game that will likely surpass the 8-run total. Even if one starter has a solid outing, the other’s potential struggles, combined with bullpen volatility, should be enough to push the total over.
The Grand Slam Wager: Backing the Over 8
In conclusion, the Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers game on June 25, 2025, presents a calculated and smart opportunity to bet the Over 8 runs. Jack Flaherty’s recent struggles with command and execution make him a prime target for the Athletics’ lineup, which, despite its overall record, possesses legitimate power threats. Conversely, while Jacob Lopez has been impressive, his youth and below-average velocity still make him susceptible to a strong Tigers offense, especially after their 11-run outburst yesterday.
Crucially, both bullpens have demonstrated a propensity to give up runs, acting as potential accelerators for scoring in the later innings. The confluence of these factors creates a high probability for a game exceeding the projected total. This isn’t just a hunch; it’s an analysis backed by recent performance, historical trends, and situational awareness.
Pick: Over 8
