The Toronto Blue Jays are battling the Cleveland Guardians, but this isn’t just any game. This is the night a legend makes his highly anticipated return to the mound.
This game promises to be a fascinating chess match between experience and raw talent, a test of wills under the lights of Progressive Field. So, let’s break down all the angles and figure out what to expect in this compelling showdown!
The Pitching Duel: A Veteran’s Return vs. A Young Star’s Surge
For the Toronto Blue Jays, it’s the much-awaited comeback of Max Scherzer. He’s been out of action since late March with a thumb injury, only having one appearance this season. While that brief outing wasn’t his best, his recent practice games in Triple-A Buffalo were very encouraging. He had a great 2.08 ERA over 8.2 innings, striking out 12 batters and walking only two. The main question everyone is asking is how many pitches he’ll throw, as he’s likely to be limited to around 80. Despite his long absence, Scherzer’s overall career numbers are truly exceptional, placing him among the greatest pitchers in baseball history. He’s a true ace, and simply having him back on the field gives the Blue Jays a big boost.
Facing Scherzer will be the Cleveland Guardians’ Gavin Williams. This young right-handed pitcher has been incredibly good, especially during June, where he’s recorded an impressive 1.99 ERA over four starts. Williams enters this game with a 5-3 record and a 3.58 ERA for the season. What’s particularly interesting is how well he has performed against the Blue Jays in the past. In two previous games against Toronto, he has been dominant, striking out 21 batters over 11 innings with an outstanding 1.64 ERA. This shows that he understands how to keep Blue Jays hitters from getting comfortable.
Offensive Power and How Teams Have Been Playing Lately
The Blue Jays’ hitters really woke up in the first game of this series, scoring 10 runs and getting 14 hits. Big hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are always dangerous, and George Springer’s grand slam certainly lifted the team’s spirits. Overall, Toronto’s offense has been performing adequately against right-handed pitchers, ranking in the middle of the league in various hitting statistics.
On the other side, the Guardians’ offense has struggled for much of this season. They rank lower in runs scored and overall hitting efficiency against right-handed pitchers. Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan are their most consistent offensive threats, but the team needs more players to contribute regularly. The Guardians are also coming off a long road trip to the West Coast, which their manager admitted made the team feel tired in the previous game. This travel fatigue could affect how they perform.
What About the Relief Pitchers and Defense?
Both teams’ relief pitchers had a tough time in Tuesday’s high-scoring game. Toronto’s bullpen has been improving, but they are without Yimi Garcia, who is still out with a shoulder injury. Since Scherzer is expected to have a limited number of pitches, the Blue Jays’ relief pitchers will need to step up and handle a significant portion of the game. Cleveland’s bullpen, while usually reliable, also gave up runs late in the last game, showing some vulnerability. How well each team’s relief pitchers perform in the later innings will be extremely important.
When it comes to defense, the Guardians are generally known for their strong fielding, which can certainly help their pitchers. The Blue Jays also have good defenders, but as with any baseball game, errors can happen and often change the course of a close contest.
The Ballpark and Weather Conditions
Progressive Field in Cleveland is typically a park that favors pitchers. It’s known for making it harder to hit home runs, which can limit how many runs powerful offenses score. For Wednesday’s game, the weather forecast predicts partly cloudy skies with temperatures around 27°C and noticeable humidity. High humidity can sometimes make the air denser, causing batted balls to travel shorter distances. This subtle effect can lead to fewer extra-base hits and, as a result, fewer runs.
Why I’m Confident in the Under 8 Total Runs Prediction
My strong belief in the “Under 8 total runs” prediction comes from a detailed look at several key factors, and it is also supported by several respected baseball prediction models.
First, Progressive Field is a park that helps pitchers. Historically, it’s not easy to score many runs here. The statistics for 2025 show that home runs are less common in this stadium, meaning that even well-hit balls might not leave the park as often as in other venues. This naturally leads to fewer runs being scored overall.
Second, the pitching matchup, even with Scherzer returning, suggests a game with fewer runs. Max Scherzer is an amazing pitcher, but he’s on a pitch limit because he’s coming back from an injury. This means the Blue Jays will likely use their relief pitchers earlier than usual. While their bullpen is capable, it’s an added variable. On the other side, Gavin Williams has been truly outstanding, especially this month, and he has a proven ability to limit the Blue Jays’ offense. His overall numbers are strong, and his effectiveness in keeping runs off the board is clear.
Third, neither team’s offense has been consistently scoring a lot of runs against right-handed pitchers this season. The Blue Jays rank in the middle of the league offensively against right-handers, and the Guardians are even lower in terms of runs scored per game. These numbers tell us that it’s not common for either team to have huge scoring explosions.
Finally, these models use advanced calculations and a lot of data, and they also point towards a lower-scoring outcome:
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Projects a final score of Guardians 5, Blue Jays 4.
- FiveThirtyEight’s MLB model: This model indicated a strong probability of the total being under 8.5 runs.
- The Action Network: This source directly picked the Under 8 runs, emphasizing the humidity and the park’s characteristics.
- Massey Ratings: Predicts a final score of Guardians 5, Blue Jays 4.
While two models have a total of 9, the overall consensus, especially from those specifically addressing the total runs, points to a game where runs will be hard to come by. The strengths of the pitchers, the offensive trends of both teams, and the characteristics of the ballpark all strongly support a game where scoring is limited.
Conclusion
This game is shaping up to be a very close contest. Max Scherzer’s return adds a lot of excitement and a chance for him to dominate for Toronto, but there’s always an adjustment period after a long injury. Facing a strong pitcher like Gavin Williams, who has a proven track record against the Blue Jays, makes Scherzer’s return even more interesting.
While Toronto’s offense looked powerful in the first game of the series, facing Williams at home presents a different challenge. The Guardians’ possible tiredness from their recent travel is a factor, but their desire to win at home after losing the first game is also a strong motivation.
Considering that Scherzer will likely have a pitch limit, the Blue Jays’ relief pitchers will be tested. Both bullpens had some issues in the series opener. However, Williams’ excellent performance in June and his past success against Toronto are hard to ignore. The lower-scoring environment of Progressive Field and the humidity will also help keep the total score down.
Based on all these points, my analysis suggests a low-scoring, tightly contested game.
MY PICK: under 8 total runs LOSE
