As the Oakland Athletics embark on a daunting nine-game road trip, their journey begins with arguably their toughest pitching challenge yet: a clash with Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. While the Athletics’ recent offensive struggles and the Tigers’ overall solid record might tempt some bettors to look at the moneyline, a closer inspection of the pitching matchup, team tendencies, and situational factors reveals a compelling opportunity to back the Under 7.5 total runs in this Tuesday showdown at Comerica Park.
The Pitching Dominance: Skubal’s Ascent and Severino’s Resurgence
At the heart of this Under 7.5 wager lies the pitching prowess on both sides, particularly the imposing presence of Tarik Skubal. The American League Cy Young Award winner from 2024 has continued his stellar form into 2025, boasting an impressive 8-2 record with a sparkling 2.06 ERA over 96.0 innings. His 9.75 SO/BB ratio and a microscopic 0.85 WHIP are elite-level statistics, demonstrating his ability to limit baserunners and strike out batters at an exceptional rate. What’s even more encouraging for Under bettors is Skubal’s dominance at home, where he’s compiled a remarkable 6-0 record with a 1.88 ERA in eight starts this season. While his last outing saw a slight dip in performance due to damp conditions, his manager, A.J. Hinch, was quick to offer a “pass,” indicating it was an anomaly rather than a trend. Skubal’s career numbers against the Athletics are also favorable for the Under, with a 3-2 record and a 2.60 ERA in eight outings. He consistently keeps the ball in the park and forces weak contact, stifling opposing offenses.
On the other side, Luis Severino (2-7, 4.42 ERA) for the Athletics has experienced a rollercoaster 2025 season. However, he has shown signs of a rebound in his recent starts. After a rough patch early in June where he surrendered 13 earned runs in two outings, Severino has significantly improved, allowing just one run in 7 2/3 innings against Kansas City and two runs in five innings against Houston, despite giving up nine hits. This suggests he’s finding his rhythm and limiting the damage, even when batters are making contact. Crucially, Severino has a history of success against the Tigers, holding a strong 5-1 record with a 1.81 ERA in eight career starts against them. This historical dominance, combined with his recent uptick in performance, indicates he’s capable of keeping the Tigers’ offense in check.
Offensive Struggles and Ballpark Factors
Both offenses heading into this game present compelling arguments for the Under.
The Oakland Athletics’ offense has been consistently anemic this season. With a 32-48 record, they sit far down in the standings, a direct reflection of their struggles to score runs. Their recent form against Cleveland, where they were shut out 3-0 on Sunday and left 10 runners on base, highlights their inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. They are particularly challenged against left-handed pitching, which Skubal exemplifies. Their overall run production remains among the lowest in the league, and facing an ace like Skubal at his home ballpark is unlikely to ignite a sudden offensive explosion. The Athletics are also dealing with a myriad of injuries to key offensive players, including Seth Brown, Shea Langeliers, Miguel Andujar, and Zack Gelof, further diminishing their scoring potential.
While the Detroit Tigers have a much better record at 49-30, their offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut that consistently puts up high run totals. While they recently snapped a three-game losing streak with a 9-3 win over the Rays, their run production against right-handed pitching (which Severino represents) can be inconsistent. Comerica Park itself is known as a pitcher’s park, especially for left-handed pitchers like Skubal. The stadium’s dimensions often suppress home runs and extra-base hits, which naturally favors lower-scoring games. The forecast for Tuesday’s game at Comerica Park indicates a temperature of around 83°F with 8.9 mph wind, and a 31% chance of rain. While not a torrential downpour, any lingering dampness could subtly affect hitting conditions, as seen in Skubal’s last start.
Statistical Trends and Situational Analysis
Let’s delve deeper into the numbers to solidify the Under 7.5 prediction:
- Skubal’s Consistency: As mentioned, Skubal’s 2.06 ERA and 0.85 WHIP are incredibly strong. His ability to limit walks (3.3% BB%) and generate strikeouts (32.1% K%) means fewer free passes and more outs, directly impacting the potential for high run totals.
- Severino’s Road Form: While his overall ERA is higher, Severino’s road ERA in 2025 is an astonishing 0.72 over 25.0 innings. This suggests he performs exceptionally well away from home, which bodes well for his outing at Comerica Park.
- Athletics Offensive Woes: The Athletics’ inability to consistently score runs is a clear trend. They struggle to string hits together and have a low batting average against left-handed pitching. Their team OPS against lefties is likely to be significantly lower than their overall numbers.
- Tigers’ Recent Offensive Outburst: While the Tigers put up nine runs against the Rays, that was an anomaly given their overall season offensive profile. Their average run production of 4.90 runs per game is respectable, but not indicative of an offense that will consistently run up the score against quality pitching.
- Comerica Park’s Pitcher-Friendly Nature: Ballparks play a crucial role in run totals. Comerica Park historically suppresses offense, especially for power hitters. This further reinforces the likelihood of a lower-scoring affair.
- Injuries Impact: Both teams are dealing with injuries, which can affect offensive production. The Athletics’ list of injured position players is particularly concerning for their ability to generate runs.
Evaluating Outcomes and Why Under 7.5 is the Smart Play
Considering all these factors, multiple low-scoring outcomes are highly probable:
- Scenario 1: Skubal Dominates, Severino is Solid. This is the most likely scenario. Skubal continues his ace-like performance, limiting the struggling Athletics to 0-2 runs. Severino, continuing his recent improved form and historical success against the Tigers, keeps their offense to 2-4 runs. This would result in a total well under 7.5.
- Scenario 2: Both Pitchers are Good, but Offenses Get a Few Lucky Breaks. Even if both pitchers aren’t at their absolute best, the inherent offensive struggles of the Athletics and the pitcher-friendly nature of Comerica Park will keep the score low. A 3-2 or 4-2 game is well within the realm of possibility, still comfortably hitting the Under.
- Scenario 3: One Pitcher Struggles, the Other Shines. Even if Severino were to have an off-night, the Athletics’ offense is so challenged against elite left-handed pitching that they are unlikely to put up enough runs to single-handedly push the total Over 7.5. Conversely, if Skubal had a rare stumble, the Tigers’ offense, while decent, is not consistently explosive enough to carry the entire Over.
The odds on the total being 7, with -110 for both Over and Under, represent good value for the Under 7.5. The implied probability of Detroit winning is 75%, and while they are favored, that doesn’t automatically mean a high-scoring game. With such strong pitching on both sides, particularly from Skubal, and the general offensive struggles of the Athletics, betting on Under 7.5 total runs is a calculated and intelligent decision. It leverages the strengths of both starting pitchers, acknowledges the weaknesses of both offenses, and takes into account the impact of the ballpark and current trends.
The Silent Victory: Why the Under is Your Play in Athletics-Tigers
In the world of baseball betting, sometimes the most profitable plays aren’t the flashy Overs with late-inning rallies, but rather the quiet, grinding contests where pitching reigns supreme. Tuesday’s matchup between the Oakland Athletics and the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park is precisely one such opportunity. With Tarik Skubal’s continued dominance at home and Luis Severino’s recent resurgence and historical success against the Tigers, coupled with the Athletics’ anemic offense and Comerica Park’s pitcher-friendly environment, all signs point to a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 7.5
