The stage is set for an epic Game 7 showdown between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder, with the Larry O’Brien Trophy on the line. While the spread and total will dominate most betting discussions, the real value might lie in a player prop—specifically, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) Over 31.5 Points (-110).
Here’s why this is the single best player prop bet for Game 7.
1. SGA’s Dominance in the Finals
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the best player in this series, averaging 32.6 PPG through six games. He’s cleared 31.5 points in four of those six, including two monster performances at home:
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38 points in Game 1
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34 points in Game 2
- 35 points in Game 4
The Pacers simply don’t have an answer for him. Their backcourt defense ranks 22nd in the playoffs against opposing guards, and they’ve struggled all series to contain SGA’s mid-range game and relentless drives.
2. The Pacers’ Defensive Weaknesses Play Right Into His Strengths
Indiana’s defense has two critical flaws that SGA can exploit:
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Poor isolation defense (3rd-most ISO points allowed in playoffs) – SGA is one of the NBA’s elite ISO scorers.
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Lack of size on the perimeter – Andrew Nembhard (6’3”) gives effort but is physically overmatched against SGA’s 6’6” frame.
Additionally, if Tyrese Haliburton (questionable) is limited or out, the Pacers lose their best playmaker, which could lead to more transition opportunities for OKC—where SGA thrives.
3. Game 7 Magnifies Superstar Usage
History shows that in winner-take-all games, teams lean heavily on their best player. Recent examples:
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Kevin Durant (2018 Finals, Game 3): 43 points on 23 shots.
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LeBron James (2016 Finals, Game 7): 27 points, but a 31.6% usage rate (well above his average).
SGA’s usage rate in elimination games jumps to 35%+, and with the Thunder at home, expect him to take 25+ shots in this game.
4. Pace & Game Script Favor Scoring
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The Pacers play at the fastest pace in the playoffs, meaning more possessions and more opportunities for SGA.
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The total is set at 215, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game.
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If OKC builds a lead, they’ll milk the clock through SGA isolations (boosting his points). If they trail, he’ll be even more aggressive.
5. Betting Market & Line Value
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Opening line: 30.5 points (now up to 31.5, indicating sharp action on the Over).
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Implied probability at -110: ~52% – but SGA has hit this in 67% of Finals games.
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Public betting: 72% of bets are on the Over, showing strong consensus.
This suggests the line still hasn’t caught up to his true scoring upside in a Game 7 environment.
Potential Risks & Counterarguments
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Blowout risk: If OKC dominates early, SGA could sit late (but he’d likely already have 25+ by then).
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Pacers adjust defensively: Unlikely—they’ve had six games to slow him down and haven’t.
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Fatigue: A minor concern, but SGA has played heavy minutes all playoffs without a drop-off.
Final Verdict & Best Bet
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (-110)
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Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (80%)
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Expected Value (+EV): Strong (market underestimates his floor in elimination games).
Bottom Line
In a Game 7 where every possession matters, the Thunder will ride their MVP-caliber superstar. The matchup, pace, and stakes all point to SGA having a 30+ point night—making this the best player prop bet on the board.
