As the Detroit Tigers (44-24) head to Camden Yards to face the Baltimore Orioles (26-39) on June 11, 2025, two teams on vastly different trajectories meet in an intriguing midweek matchup. The Tigers, sitting comfortably in first place in the AL Central, have been one of baseball’s biggest surprises this season, playing with a blend of dominant pitching and timely hitting. Meanwhile, the Orioles, once seen as an emerging powerhouse, find themselves last in the AL East, plagued by injuries and underperformance.
Tonight’s pitching duel features Casey Mize for Detroit and Zach Eflin for Baltimore—a battle that could dictate whether this game becomes a low-scoring grind or an unexpected slugfest. Mize, boasting a 3.45 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, has been a stabilizing force in the Tigers’ rotation, while Eflin (4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) looks to rebound after a shaky stretch.
The Orioles’ lineup, already missing key bats like Ryan Mountcastle and Tyler O’Neill, will have its work cut out against Detroit’s pitching staff. On the flip side, the Tigers’ offense—led by Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson—has been consistently productive, even without injured role players like Matt Vierling.
Baltimore’s struggles at home (12-20 record at Camden Yards) add another layer of concern, while Detroit’s ability to win close games suggests they have the edge in late-game situations.
Will the Tigers continue their march toward October, or can the Orioles play spoiler and steal a much-needed win? With the total set at 9 runs, this game could hinge on whether Baltimore’s patchwork lineup can solve Mize—or if Detroit’s balanced attack will overpower Eflin early.
Top 5 AI Betting Model Predictions
| Model | Predicted Score (DET-BAL) | Moneyline Pick | Total (O/U 9) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetQL | 5.1 – 3.8 (DET) | DET (-106) | Under |
| ESPN AI | 4.7 – 4.2 (DET) | DET (-106) | Under |
| SportsLine | 5.3 – 3.5 (DET) | DET (-106) | Under |
| NumberFire | 4.9 – 4.0 (DET) | DET (-106) | Under |
| Dimers AI | 5.0 – 3.7 (DET) | DET (-106) | Under |
| Average | 5.0 – 3.8 (DET) | DET (-106) | Under (9) |
My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Injuries)
Key Factors:
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Pythagorean Win Expectation (Detroit vs. Baltimore):
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DET (44-24): Runs Scored (RS) = 320, Runs Allowed (RA) = 240
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Pythagorean Win % = RS² / (RS² + RA²) = 64.0%
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BAL (26-39): RS = 280, RA = 340
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Pythagorean Win % = 40.4%
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Expected Win Differential: DET is ~23.6% better by run differential.
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Strength of Schedule (SOS):
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DET: Faced #12 toughest schedule (above avg. competition)
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BAL: Faced #22 toughest schedule (weaker opponents, still struggling)
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Conclusion: DET’s record is more impressive given their tougher opponents.
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Pitching Matchup:
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Casey Mize (DET): 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP (strong command, weak BAL lineup)
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Zach Eflin (BAL): 4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP (vulnerable vs. righties, DET has solid RH bats)
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Injuries & Lineup Impact:
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DET: Missing Vierling (bench bat), but core lineup (Greene, Torkelson, Carpenter) intact.
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BAL: Critical losses: Ryan Mountcastle (power bat), Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez (pitching depth).
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Recent Trends:
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DET won 5-3 on June 10 (bullpen held BAL in check).
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Final Custom Prediction:
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Score Prediction: Detroit 5.2 – Baltimore 3.6
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Pick: DET ML (-106) & Under 9
Combined AI + Custom Model Consensus
| Source | Predicted Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| AI Average | 5.0 – 3.8 (DET) | DET ML, Under |
| My Model | 5.2 – 3.6 (DET) | DET ML, Under |
| Final Consensus | 5.1 – 3.7 (DET) | DET ML (-106) & Under 9 |
Recommended Bet:
- Detroit Tigers ML
- Under 9 runs
Reasoning:
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Detroit’s superior pitching, stronger lineup, and BAL’s injuries tilt this heavily in DET’s favor.
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The Orioles’ offense is depleted, and Eflin is prone to giving up 4+ runs.
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The Under hits in ~65% of similar matchups this season.
Pick
- Take the Detroit Tigers +106 Moneyline
