The Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals are set to face off in an intriguing interleague showdown on Monday, June 9, 2025, at Busch Stadium. With both teams hovering near the top of their respective divisions, this game could have significant implications as the MLB season approaches the midway point.

The Blue Jays (35-30, 3rd in AL East) are coming off a series win against the Minnesota Twins, showing resilience despite a growing injury list. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (36-29, 2nd in NL Central) are looking to bounce back after a tough series loss to the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers.

Pitching Duel: Berríos vs. Pallante

On the mound, Toronto sends out veteran right-hander José Berríos, who has been a steady force in the rotation with a 3.65 ERA and strong recent form. His ability to limit hard contact and eat innings will be crucial against a Cardinals lineup that has been inconsistent at times.

Opposing him is Andre Pallante, the Cardinals’ right-hander who has shown flashes of brilliance but has struggled with command at times, posting a 4.10 ERA this season. If Pallante can keep Toronto’s hitters off balance, St. Louis will have a strong chance to defend their home field.

Injury Woes Impacting Both Lineups

Both teams are dealing with key absences that could shape the outcome of this game. The Blue Jays are without slugger Anthony Santander, defensive standout Daulton Varsho, and multiple bullpen arms, testing their depth. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are missing Jordan Walker’s power bat and have a thin bullpen with Matthew Liberatore questionable.

What to Watch For

Can the Blue Jays’ offense overcome missing key bats? With Santander and Varsho out, players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette must carry the load.
Will the Cardinals capitalize on home-field advantage? St. Louis has been strong at Busch Stadium this season, and Pallante will need the crowd behind him.
Bullpen battles late. Both teams have solid relievers, but fatigue and injuries could play a factor in the later innings.

This game promises to be a tightly contested battle between two teams fighting for playoff positioning. Will the Blue Jays’ pitching and star power prevail, or can the Cardinals rally at home and secure a crucial win?

Gather AI Model Predictions

BetQL: Cardinals +0.5 (53% win probability)
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Blue Jays 52% win probability
SportsLine: Projected total 8.3 runs (slightly under 8.5)
Pinnacle (Sharp Money Indicator): Slight lean toward Cardinals ML (+103)
FiveThirtyEight: Blue Jays 51% win probability

Average Prediction:

Money Line: Slight edge to Cardinals (average ~51.5% implied probability, close to a coin flip).
Total Runs: ~8.4 (slightly under 8.5).

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation

Blue Jays:
- Runs Scored (RS): 320
- Runs Allowed (RA): 295
- Pythagorean Win % = (RS²) / (RS² + RA²) = 320² / (320² + 295²) ≈ 54.1%
Cardinals:
- RS: 335
- RA: 310
- Pythagorean Win % = 335² / (335² + 310²) ≈ 53.8%

Conclusion: Very close, but Blue Jays have a slight edge (54.1% vs. 53.8%).

2. Strength of Schedule (SOS) Adjustment

Blue Jays: Played a tougher schedule (AL East: Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox).
Cardinals: NL Central is weaker (except Brewers).
Adjustment: +1% to Blue Jays.

3. Starting Pitcher Matchup

José Berríos (TOR):
- 2025 ERA: 3.65, xFIP: 3.80, K/9: 8.1
- Recent Form: 2.89 ERA last 3 starts
Andre Pallante (STL):
- 2025 ERA: 4.10, xFIP: 4.25, K/9: 7.3
- Recent Form: 4.50 ERA last 3 starts

Edge: Berríos > Pallante (TOR has pitching advantage).

4. Injuries & Lineup Impact

Blue Jays Missing:
- Daulton Varsho (OF, key bat), Yimi García (RP), Alek Manoah (SP depth).
- Anthony Santander (power bat) out—big loss.
Cardinals Missing:
- Jordan Walker (OF, power bat), Zack Thompson (SP depth).
- Liberatore is questionable.

Conclusion: Both teams weakened, but Toronto’s offense is more impacted.

5. Bullpen & Trends

Blue Jays Bullpen: 3.92 ERA (12th in MLB)
Cardinals Bullpen: 3.78 ERA (9th in MLB)
Recent Trends:
- Blue Jays won 6 of last 10.
- Cardinals lost 4 of last 6.

Edge: Slight bullpen edge to STL, but TOR has momentum.

Final Prediction vs. AI Consensus

Factor	AI Consensus	My Model
Win %	~51.5% STL	53% TOR (Pythag + SOS + Berríos)
Total Runs	8.4 (Under 8.5)	8.2 (Under 8.5)

Betting Recommendation:

Money Line: Toronto Blue Jays ML (slight edge, but not strong enough to bet heavily).
- If forced to pick, lean TOR (-110 or better).
Total Runs: Under 8.5 (-110) (Both models agree, pitching matchup favors lower scoring).

Pick:

Under 8.5 Runs

Reasoning:

Both teams have solid pitching, and key offensive injuries (Varsho, Santander, Walker) hurt run production.
AI models and my custom prediction agree on Under 8.5 as the stronger play.
The moneyline is too close to call confidently, but Toronto has a slight edge due to Berríos.