Get ready for an exciting MLB matchup as the Detroit Tigers host the Chicago Cubs at Comerica Park on Friday, June 6, 2025, at 7:10 PM ET. This game features a pitching duel that could decide the outcome early, with Detroit’s ace Tarik Skubal facing off against Chicago’s Ben Brown. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, making this interleague contest a must-watch for baseball fans.

In this detailed preview, we’ll break down everything you need to know — from pitching matchups and recent team form to injury updates and advanced prediction models. We’ll also explain why the total runs scored in this game are expected to stay under 7, based on data and expert analysis. Whether you’re a casual fan or a stats enthusiast, this guide will help you understand the key factors shaping this game.

Pitching Matchup: The Heart of the Battle

Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers)

Skubal is the star of this game. The left-handed pitcher has a 5-2 record with a sparkling 2.26 ERA this season. He’s known for his incredible strikeout ability, boasting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 14.14 and a WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) of just 0.79. Skubal is currently riding a streak of 16 consecutive scoreless innings, showing dominance over opposing hitters. At home in Comerica Park, he’s even more impressive, with a 4-0 record and a 1.83 ERA in six starts this season.

Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs)

Brown, a right-hander, has had a tougher season with a 3-3 record and a 5.72 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.74, and his WHIP is 1.46, indicating he allows more baserunners than Skubal. Brown has struggled with consistency, especially in early innings, but recently showed promise by pitching six scoreless innings against Cincinnati. This will be Brown’s first career start against the Tigers, adding an element of the unknown.

Why This Matters

Skubal’s dominance and home-field advantage give the Tigers a clear edge on the mound. Brown’s inconsistency and higher ERA suggest the Cubs will have to work hard to score runs. This pitching mismatch is the biggest factor favoring Detroit in this game.

Recent Team Form and Trends

Detroit Tigers: The Tigers are leading the American League with a 41-23 record. They have been strong at home, holding a 21-8 record at Comerica Park. Although their offense has cooled slightly in recent games, their pitching staff remains reliable.
Chicago Cubs: The Cubs boast a 39-23 record and have won 11 of their last 14 games. Their offense is potent, hitting .262 overall and .274 on the road. However, they face a tough challenge against Skubal and the Tigers’ strong pitching.

Both teams are in excellent form, but Detroit’s pitching advantage and home crowd support give them the upper hand.

Injury Updates: Who’s Out and What It Means

Cubs: The Cubs are missing key players due to injuries, including starting pitchers Justin Steele (elbow) and Ben Heller (undisclosed), both out for the season. Catcher Miguel Amaya and pitchers Javier Assad and Elijah Morgan are also sidelined, which affects the Cubs’ pitching depth and bullpen reliability.
Tigers: Detroit has some injuries too, but their ace Skubal is healthy and ready. Alex Cobb (hip) and Jose Urquidy (elbow) are out, but the Tigers have managed to maintain a strong rotation.

The Cubs’ injury situation puts extra pressure on Brown and the bullpen, making it harder for Chicago to keep the game close.

Head-to-Head and Historical Context

Historically, the Tigers and Cubs have been competitive against each other. However, Detroit has performed better at home, especially with Skubal pitching. Skubal has struggled in his limited career starts against Chicago but has been dominant overall this season.

Why the Total Runs Will Stay Under 7

Many expect this game to be a low-scoring affair. Here’s why:

Dominant Starting Pitching: Skubal’s recent streak of 16 scoreless innings and low ERA suggests he will limit Chicago’s offense effectively. Brown’s inconsistency and tendency to allow baserunners could be mitigated by the Tigers’ bullpen and defense.
Strong Bullpens: Both teams have reliable relievers who can hold leads or keep the game close in later innings.
Recent Offensive Trends: Detroit’s offense has slowed down recently, scoring two or fewer runs in four of their last six games. Chicago’s offense, while strong, faces a tough matchup against Skubal.

Five Prediction Models Support the Under 7 Total Runs

To back this up, five respected prediction models were used to forecast the score and run total for this game:

Model	Predicted Score (DET – CHC)	Total Runs	Notes
Stats Insider	4 – 2	6	Gives Tigers 61% win probability
PredictEM	4 – 3	7	Slightly closer, but under favored
Fox Sports Model	4 – 3	7	Emphasizes pitching dominance
Sports Chat Place	4 – 2	6	Highlights Tigers’ pitching edge
Statsalt	5 – 3	8	Slightly higher total, but close

Four out of five models predict a total of 7 runs or fewer, reinforcing the expectation of a pitcher’s duel and a low-scoring game.

Final Prediction and Why Detroit Will Win

The Detroit Tigers are favored to win this game, with moneyline odds around -198, reflecting confidence in their ace and home advantage. The Cubs, at +164, face an uphill battle, especially with their pitching injuries and Brown’s uneven season.

Detroit’s strong pitching, led by Skubal, and their solid defense will likely keep Chicago’s potent offense in check. The Tigers’ offense, while not explosive recently, should be able to score enough runs against Brown to secure a win.

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4, Chicago Cubs 2

Key Takeaways for Fans

Watch Tarik Skubal: He’s the player to follow. His ability to strike out batters and keep runs off the board will be crucial.
Expect a Close, Low-Scoring Game: Both teams have good pitching, and the total runs will likely stay under 7.
Tigers Have the Edge: Home field, pitching, and recent form all favor Detroit.
Cubs’ Injuries Matter: Missing key pitchers limits their chances.

Conclusion

This game promises to be a classic pitching duel with Detroit’s Tarik Skubal taking center stage against Chicago’s Ben Brown. The Tigers’ home advantage, combined with Skubal’s dominance and the Cubs’ injury challenges, make Detroit the favorite to win. The total runs scored will likely remain under 7, as strong pitching and defense take priority over offense.

Baseball fans can look forward to an intense, strategic game where every pitch counts. Whether you’re watching for the thrill of the game or analyzing the stats, this matchup is a great example of how pitching can shape the outcome in Major League Baseball.

My Pick: under 7 total runs WIN