The Arizona Diamondbacks are visiting the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on Thursday, June 5, 2025, at 12:15 PM ET. This game is the last of a three-game series where the Diamondbacks have already won the first two games. They are trying to sweep the Braves, which means winning all three games in a row on the road. The last time Arizona swept Atlanta in Atlanta was back in 2019, so this is a big opportunity for them.
This preview will explain everything you need to know about this game. We will talk about the pitchers, how both teams have been playing lately, injuries, and what the experts and prediction models say about the final score and total runs. We will also explain why the total runs scored will likely be under nine, based on strong data and analysis.
Pitching Matchup: Who’s on the Mound?
Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks
-
Record: 7 wins and 4 losses
-
ERA (Earned Run Average): 5.05
-
Innings Pitched: 62.1
-
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio: 3.27
-
WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched): 1.32
Brandon Pfaadt is a young right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season. Recently, he had a very bad game where he gave up 8 runs without getting a single batter out. That one game made his overall ERA jump from about 3.90 to 5.05, which means he has been giving up more runs than before. Still, Pfaadt has done well against the Braves in the past. He has won both of his previous starts against them and has an ERA of 3.57 in those games. He pitched well earlier this season against Atlanta, going more than six innings and giving up only two earned runs.
One thing to watch is that Pfaadt has struggled when pitching away from home. He has given up 11 of his 12 home runs on the road, which means he can be hit hard by good hitters. This could be a problem against the Braves, who have some strong hitters.
Grant Holmes for the Braves
-
Record: 3 wins and 4 losses
-
ERA: 3.78
-
Innings Pitched: 64.1
-
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio: 2.37
-
WHIP: 1.17
Grant Holmes is also a right-handed pitcher and has been more consistent this season. In his last six starts, he has kept the opposing teams to three runs or fewer five times. In a recent game against the Boston Red Sox, he struck out nine batters, showing he can be very effective. Holmes has faced Arizona once this season, allowing six runs in 5 2/3 innings, but he did not get a win or loss in that game.
The Braves will count on Holmes to keep Arizona’s hitters under control and help them avoid losing three games in a row at home.
How Have the Teams Been Playing?
The Diamondbacks are coming into this game with good momentum. They have already won the first two games in Atlanta by scores of 8-3 and 2-1. Winning two games in a row on the road gives them confidence going into this final game.
The Braves, on the other hand, have been struggling to score runs. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games and have only scored 45 runs in those games. In five of those losses, they scored one run or no runs at all. This means their offense has been weak lately, which makes it harder for them to win.
Injuries That Could Affect the Game
Both teams have some injured players, mostly pitchers, which affects how deep their pitching staff is. Here are some important injury updates:
-
Eduardo Rodriguez (shoulder) expected back June 6
-
A.J. Puk (elbow) expected back July 1
-
Jordan Montgomery (elbow) out for the whole season
-
Several other pitchers on both teams are out for a long time
Because of these injuries, the managers will have to be careful about how they use their relief pitchers later in the game.
Why We Expect the Total Runs to Stay Under 9
The total runs line for this game is set at 9. This means many expect the combined runs scored by both teams to be less than nine. Here’s why:
-
Strong Starting Pitchers: Holmes has been pitching well lately and keeps runs low. Pfaadt has had some bad games but also has the ability to limit runs, especially against the Braves.
-
Offense Struggles: The Braves’ offense is not scoring many runs right now. Even though Arizona has a strong lineup, the games between these two teams have been low-scoring recently.
-
Good Bullpens: Both teams have solid relief pitchers who can keep the other team from scoring late in the game.
-
Game Conditions: The previous games in this series were low-scoring and tight, which suggests this game will be similar.
What Do the Prediction Models Say?
To get a clear picture, we looked at five trusted prediction models that use advanced data and simulations. Here’s what they say about the final score and total runs:
| Model Name | Predicted Score (Arizona – Atlanta) | Total Runs | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dimers Advanced Model | 4 – 5 | 9 | High |
| Fox Sports Simulation | 4 – 5 | 9 | Medium-High |
| ESPN Predictive Model | 3 – 5 | 8 | Medium |
| DraftKings Analytics | 5 – 4 | 9 | Medium |
| Sportsbook Wire Model | 4 – 5 | 9 | High |
All five models expect a close game with total runs around 8 or 9. This supports the idea that the game will have fewer than nine runs scored in total. The predicted scores are very close, showing that the teams are evenly matched.
Final Thoughts: What to Expect from the Game
This game looks like it will be a close, low-scoring battle between two teams with very different momentum. The Diamondbacks have been playing well and want to finish the series strong with a sweep. Pfaadt will want to prove he can pitch well after his recent bad game. He has shown he can handle the Braves before, so Arizona fans have reason to be hopeful.
The Braves need to find their offense again and rely on Holmes to keep the Diamondbacks’ hitters quiet. Playing at home gives the Braves a small advantage, but their recent struggles mean this game could go either way.
Quick Summary
-
Pitching: Holmes is more consistent; Pfaadt has potential but needs to improve.
-
Offense: Braves are struggling; Diamondbacks have momentum.
-
Injuries: Affect bullpen depth but no major starters out.
-
Total Runs: Expect under 9 runs scored total.
-
Prediction: Braves 5, Diamondbacks 4 — a close and exciting game.
This matchup is a great example of how baseball can be a game of small margins. Both teams will fight hard, and every run will matter. Whether you’re a fan of the Braves defending their home field or the Diamondbacks trying to complete a sweep, this game promises to be a thrilling finish to the series.
Enjoy the game and watch closely — it could come down to the last inning!
My PICK: under 9 total runs LOSE
