Super Bowl Futures Betting: The NFL Betting Model Finds Value in Two Big Holes

With the NFL playoffs just two weeks away, the race is shaping up to be quite the setting. Around this time last year, I noted that the Cincinnati Bengals were +900 and he deserved to win the AFC, and that he has one of the most historic in recent NFL playoff memory. I noticed. I hope it happens to us again.

My NFL futures strategy isn’t as aggressive, but I tend to think I like the favorites a little too much for the uncertainty this league presents each week. So I’m not going to squeak the little edges that the model presents (Dolphin and Charger). But perhaps the most important part of futures betting is that price shopping is important. Futures markets can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, so many of the long shots are unlikely to hit the window, so shop around and maximize your return when the window hits.

All odds are from BetMGM and updated live. Once the article is published, the betting odds are locked.

We will update this story with other Super Bowl and NFL Playoff bets as the season progresses.

The Jaguars’ offense unfolds late in the season and they don’t have much of a homefield advantage, but if they can make it to the playoffs, they’ll have a playoff game if they beat the Titans in the week. Not a great team, but playing with above average ratings and playing like Trevor Lawrence played late in the season, they can beat just about everyone in the AFC .

In my simulations, the Jaguars win AFC 7.4% of the time.

Worst odds to bet: +2000

Minnesota Vikings score NFC +900 (0.25 units of risk)

The Vikings are considered cheaters considering their poor points differential and not achieving a 12-3 record. However, the Vikings will host a home playoff game and will likely face Brock Purdy and the 49ers if they make it to the divisional round. I think the market hit them too hard because they were hit hard. Two of their losses were 17 points and 37 points.

The Vikings are slightly underrated because Kirk Cousins ​​knows Justin Jefferson can get a first down when he’s at stake. Leading the NFL with 28.3 expected extra points per game, it’s not close. If the Vikings need a big play, Jefferson gets it done, but no one has been able to stop it this season.

In my simulations, the Vikings win NFC 16.8% of the time.

Worst odds to bet: Vikings +650

(Photo by Justin Jefferson: Stephen Mathulen/Getty Images)