Who Wants It More? Washington and Baltimore Face Off in Must-Watch Mid-May Duel

The Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals meet on May 17, 2025, in an intriguing interleague matchup between two teams searching for answers early in the season. Both clubs have stumbled out of the gate, with the Orioles sitting at 15-28 (last in the AL East) and the Nationals at 19-27 (fourth in the NL East). While neither squad is where they hoped to be at this point, this game presents an opportunity for one team to gain a much-needed spark.

The Battle of the Beltways always carries extra weight for local fans, and this edition could be a tighter contest than the records suggest. The Orioles, despite their struggles, hold home-field advantage at Camden Yards, where the hitter-friendly dimensions could play a role. Meanwhile, the Nationals are coming off a 4-3 victory over Baltimore in their last meeting, giving them a slight confidence boost.

Pitching will be under the microscope, as both starters—Kyle Gibson (BAL) and Jake Irvin (WSH)—have had inconsistent seasons. Gibson, a veteran right-hander, has been prone to rough outings, while Irvin has shown flashes of promise but must navigate a Baltimore lineup that, despite injuries, still has power threats. The bullpens for both teams rank near the bottom of the league, meaning late-game execution could be the deciding factor.

Injuries have plagued both clubs, with the Orioles missing key contributors like Jordan Westburg and Grayson Rodriguez, while the Nationals are without Josiah Gray and multiple relievers. How each team adjusts to these absences could swing the game.

Will the Orioles find a way to turn things around at home, or can the Nationals capitalize on Baltimore’s struggles and steal another close win? With the total set at 10 runs, this game could hinge on whether the offenses break out or if the pitching staffs manage to grind out a low-scoring battle.

As these two rivals clash, the stakes go beyond just a single win—it’s about building momentum in a season that hasn’t gone as planned for either side. Who will rise to the occasion?

Gather AI Model Predictions

Average Prediction:

• Baltimore Orioles 5.0 – Washington Nationals 4.0

• Consensus Pick: Orioles ML (-153) & Under 10 (lean)

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation

• WSH Runs Scored (RS): 4.1/game

• WSH Runs Allowed (RA): 4.8/game

• BAL Runs Scored (RS): 4.3/game

• BAL Runs Allowed (RA): 5.2/game

Pythagorean Win %:

• WSH: (4.1^1.83) / (4.1^1.83 + 4.8^1.83) = 0.439

• BAL: (4.3^1.83) / (4.3^1.83 + 5.2^1.83) = 0.426

Implied Score:

• WSH: (0.439 / (0.439 + 0.426)) * 9 ≈ 4.6

• BAL: (0.426 / (0.439 + 0.426)) * 9 ≈ 4.4

• Initial Projection: WSH 4.6 – BAL 4.4

2. Strength of Schedule Adjustment

• WSH SOS: 26th (weaker opponents)

• BAL SOS: 18th (slightly tougher)

• Adjustment: +0.3 runs for BAL → WSH 4.4 – BAL 4.7

3. Pitching & Bullpen Matchup

• Jake Irvin (WSH): 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (average)

• Kyle Gibson (BAL): 4.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (struggling)

• Bullpen Rankings:

  • WSH: 22nd

  • BAL: 25th

• Edge: Slight advantage to WSH’s offense vs. Gibson.

4. Injuries & Lineup Impact

• WSH: Missing Josiah Gray (SP), Mason Thompson (RP) → weakens bullpen.

• BAL: Missing Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish → bullpen is thin.

• Key Absence: Jordan Westburg (BAL infield defense weakened).

5. Recent Trends & Ballpark Factor

• Last Meeting: WSH won 4-3 (close game).

• Camden Yards: Slight hitter-friendly park (but not extreme).

• Recent Form: Both teams struggling (BAL 15-28, WSH 19-27).

Final Adjusted Prediction:

• Washington Nationals 4.8 – Baltimore Orioles 4.9

• Suggested Pick: Under 10 (Lean) & BAL ML (Slight Edge, but -153 is steep for two bad teams)

Combined Consensus Pick

Final Score Prediction: Orioles 5 – Nationals 4 (Under 10)

Pick

• Take the UNDER 10 total runs.