TD Garden’s Final Roar? Knicks Aim to End Celtics’ Run

The New York Knicks are one win away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals, and they’ll have a chance to finish the job on the road in Game 5 against the Boston Celtics. After taking a commanding 3-1 series lead with a gritty 121-113 victory in Game 4, the Knicks now head to TD Garden with all the momentum, while the Celtics, missing their best player, face elimination in what could be a defining moment for their season.

This series has been a tale of resilience and attrition. The Knicks, led by Jalen Brunson’s scoring brilliance and Karl-Anthony Towns’ physical dominance, have outworked the Celtics in key moments, exposing Boston’s vulnerabilities without Jayson Tatum. The Celtics, who entered the playoffs as one of the East’s top contenders, now find themselves on the brink of an early exit, raising questions about their ability to adjust without their superstar forward.

Tatum’s absence has been glaring. The Celtics’ offense, which typically runs through his scoring and playmaking, has looked disjointed at times, relying too heavily on Jaylen Brown and Derrick White to carry the load. Meanwhile, the Knicks have capitalized with stifling defense, timely shooting, and relentless rebounding—traits that have defined their playoff run under head coach Tom Thibodeau.

Game 5 in Boston will be a high-pressure showdown. The Celtics, playing in front of their home crowd, will fight to extend the series, while the Knicks aim to close it out and advance to their first Conference Finals in over a decade. Will Boston muster enough firepower to force a Game 6, or will New York’s physicality and poise prove too much to handle?

As the basketball world turns its attention to this pivotal matchup, we break down the key factors that could decide Game 5—from lineup adjustments and defensive schemes to the X-factors who might tip the scales in this win-or-go-home battle.

NBA AI Betting Models’ Predictions

• BetQL: Celtics -3.8, Total 209.2

• ESPN Analytics: Celtics -4.1, Total 206.5

• SportsLine: Knicks +4.0, Total 208.0

• FiveThirtyEight: Celtics -5.0, Total 207.0

• DRatings (AI Model): Celtics -4.5, Total 207.5

Average Model Prediction:

• Spread: Celtics -4.28

• Total: 207.64

Our Enhanced Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Injuries/Trends)

Key Factors:

• Pythagorean Win % (Adjusted for Playoffs & Injuries):

  • Knicks: 0.615 (Off Rtg: 116.3, Def Rtg: 111.7)

  • Celtics (without Tatum): 0.580 (Off Rtg: 114.1, Def Rtg: 112.4)

  • Expected Margin: ~ Knicks +1.5 (adjusted for home court)

• Strength of Schedule (Last 10 Games):

  • Knicks faced tougher defenses (BOS, CLE, MIA).

  • Celtics without Tatum have struggled offensively (3-6 in last 9).

• Injuries & Trends:

  • Jayson Tatum (Out): Celtics lose ~28 PPG, 8 RPG, 5 APG.

  • Sam Hauser (Questionable): If out, Celtics lose key 3PT shooter.

  • Knicks’ Momentum: Won 3 straight, Brunson & Randle dominating.

  • Celtics’ Home Record Without Tatum: 2-3 in last 5.

Final Adjusted Prediction:

• Score Prediction: Knicks 108, Celtics 104

• Spread: Knicks +4.5 (Strong Value)

• Total: Under 207.5 (Slower pace without Tatum)

Combined AI Models + Our Pick = Best Bet

Betting Recommendations:

Knicks +4.5 (Strong Play)
Under 207.5 (Slight Lean)

Reasoning:

• Celtics are missing Tatum, their best scorer, and the Knicks’ defense has been stifling.

• The AI models slightly favor Boston, but our injury-adjusted model shows Knicks covering +4.5 is the smarter play.

• The total is close, but Boston’s offense slows down without Tatum, favoring the Under.

Pick

• Take the New York Knicks +4.5 points.