The Boston Celtics are in trouble. Down 0-2 in their second-round series against the New York Knicks, they now head to Madison Square Garden for a must-win Game 3 on May 10, 2025. The Knicks, riding high after two gritty wins in Boston, have a chance to push the Celtics to the brink of elimination—something few predicted before this series began.
With the Knicks as +5.5 underdogs at home and the total set at 206.5, bettors are weighing whether New York can keep defying expectations or if Boston will finally wake up and steal a game on the road.
Why This Game Matters
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Series Momentum: The Knicks have out-executed the Celtics in clutch moments, with Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle leading the charge.
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Boston’s Back Against the Wall: No team in NBA history has ever come back from 0-3—making this a near must-win for the Celtics.
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Betting Market Moves: The line opened at Celtics -4.5 but moved to -5.5, suggesting sharp money on Boston. But do the analytics agree?
Key Factors to Watch
Celtics’ Offensive Struggles
Boston’s usually elite offense has looked stagnant, shooting just 32% from three in this series. If Sam Hauser (questionable) sits, their floor spacing takes another hit.
Knicks’ Defense & Home Crowd
New York has been locking down in the playoffs, ranking 2nd in defensive rating. With MSG roaring, the Celtics’ role players must step up under pressure.
NBA AI Betting Models’ Predictions
| Model | Predicted Score (BOS-NYK) | Spread Pick | Total Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetQL | 102-99 (BOS -3) | BOS -5.5 | Under 206.5 |
| ESPN BPI | 104-101 (BOS -3) | BOS -5.5 | Under 206.5 |
| SportsLine | 101-100 (BOS -1) | NYK +5.5 | Under 206.5 |
| Oddsshark | 103-98 (BOS -5) | BOS -5.5 | Under 206.5 |
| TeamRankings | 100-102 (NYK +2) | NYK +5.5 | Under 206.5 |
| Average | 102-100 (BOS -2) | Lean NYK +5.5 | Strong Under 206.5 |
My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)
Pythagorean Win Expectation
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Celtics (BOS):
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Points For (PF) = 112.5 | Points Against (PA) = 104.3
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Pythagorean Win % = PF^13.91 / (PF^13.91 + PA^13.91) = ~70%
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Knicks (NYK):
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PF = 109.8 | PA = 106.1
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Pythagorean Win % = ~62%
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Injuries & Trends
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Sam Hauser (Questionable): Key shooter, but Celtics have depth (Pritchard, White can step up).
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NYK Health: Fully healthy, Brunson/Randle playing at elite levels.
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Trends:
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NYK is 6-1 ATS last 7 games.
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Under is 8-2 in the last 10 Celtics playoff games.
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Adjusted Prediction
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Score Prediction: 101-100 (NYK Win, but BOS Cover? No—close game favors NYK +5.5)
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Spread Pick: NYK +5.5
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Total Pick: Under 206.5 (Both teams top 5 in playoff defense)
Consensus Pick (AI Models + My Prediction)
| Factor | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Average AI Model Score | 102-100 (BOS -2) |
| My Custom Score | 101-100 (NYK +1) |
| Final Consensus Score | 101.5-100 (NYK +1.5) |
| Spread Pick (NYK +5.5) | Strong Play (4/5 AI models + my pick favor NYK) |
| Total Pick (Under 206.5) | Very Strong Play (5/5 AI models + my pick agree) |
Betting Recommendations
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Spread: New York Knicks +5.5 (-110)
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Why? Celtics haven’t covered in series yet, NYK home crowd, tight game expected.
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Total: Under 206.5 (-110)
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Why? Both teams’ slow pace in the playoffs, elite defenses, and low-scoring trends.
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Pick
- Take Under 206.5 total points.
