The Tampa Bay Lightning struck back hard in Game 3, delivering a decisive 5-1 win over the Florida Panthers to keep their playoff hopes alive. Now, as the series shifts back to Sunrise for Game 4, the Lightning have a chance to tie the series and turn this into a best-of-three battle. The Panthers, however, are no strangers to pressure-they’re the defending Stanley Cup champions, and their home-ice advantage at Amerant Bank Arena could be the edge they need to regain control.
Let’s break down what to expect in this critical matchup and why the Lightning might keep it closer than the odds suggest.
Recent Performances: Momentum vs. Championship Pedigree
Tampa Bay Lightning: Riding the Wave
The Lightning’s Game 3 victory wasn’t just a win-it was a statement. After dropping the first two games, Tampa Bay’s stars stepped up:
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Jake Guentzel: Scored a goal and added two assists, driving the offense with relentless energy.
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Nikita Kucherov: Set up three goals, showcasing why he’s one of the NHL’s elite playmakers.
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Andrei Vasilevskiy: Stopped 33 of 34 shots, reminding everyone of his playoff dominance (.919 career postseason SV%).
Tampa’s road record (26-15-0 in the regular season) proves they thrive in hostile environments. But their power play remains a concern (1/13 in the series), and discipline will be key after taking 15 penalty minutes in Game 3.
Florida Panthers: Defending Their Turf
The Panthers still lead the series 2-1, but their Game 3 collapse raised questions. Key points:
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Home Struggles: Lost Game 3 at home despite a strong start.
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Top Line Quieted: Matthew Tkachuk scored early, but Florida’s stars (Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov) were held in check.
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Goaltending Questions: Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 5 goals on 22 shots before being pulled.
Florida’s physical style (ranked 1st in hits during the regular season) needs to resurface. They’ll also lean on their penalty kill (3rd in NHL at 86.7%) to neutralize Tampa’s power play.
Key Factors That Could Decide Game 4
1. Goaltending: Vasilevskiy vs. Bobrovsky
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Andrei Vasilevskiy (Lightning): A .927 SV% in Game 3 highlighted his ability to steal games. He’s 14-5 in playoff elimination games since 2020.
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Sergei Bobrovsky (Panthers): After a shaky Game 3, his .925 SV% in Games 1-2 shows he can bounce back.
2. Special Teams Battle
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Lightning Power Play: Needs to convert chances (7 high-danger opportunities in Game 3).
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Panthers Penalty Kill: Must avoid costly penalties after allowing 2 PPG in Game 3.
3. Physical Play and Discipline
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Panthers’ Aggression: Led the NHL in hits (2,143), but crossing the line (e.g., Tkachuk’s major penalty) gives Tampa opportunities.
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Lightning’s Composure: Staying out of the box is critical-they’ve taken 23 penalty minutes in the series.
4. Home Ice vs. Road Resilience
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Panthers’ Home Record: 30-7-4 in the regular season, but Game 3’s loss exposed vulnerabilities.
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Lightning’s Road Grit: Thrive under pressure, with 12 comeback wins away from home this season.
What the Prediction Models Say
Five trusted NHL models project the following scores for Game 4:
| Model | Predicted Score | Total Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsnet Analytics | Panthers 3 – Lightning 2 | Under 5.5 |
| ESPN’s GameScore | Lightning 4 – Panthers 3 | Over 5.5 |
| The Athletic’s DOM | Panthers 4 – Lightning 2 | Under 5.5 |
| HockeyViz | Panthers 3 – Lightning 1 | Under 5.5 |
| Covers Consensus | Panthers 3 – Lightning 2 | Under 5.5 |
Consensus: Four of five models predict Under 5.5 goals, expecting defensive adjustments after Game 3’s offensive outburst.
Why the Lightning +1.5 Puck Line Is a Smart Choice
The Lightning lost Games 1 and 2 by just one goal each (3-2 and 2-1). Here’s why they’re likely to keep Game 4 within a goal:
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Close Game History: 80% of playoff meetings between these teams since 2021 were decided by 1 goal.
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Vasilevskiy’s Clutch Factor: Saves 92% of high-danger shots in elimination games.
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Panthers’ Conservative Play: Florida prioritizes defense at home, limiting blowout risks.
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Guentzel’s Momentum: Leads Tampa with 12 shot attempts and 7 scoring chances in the series.
Final Score Prediction: Panthers 3 – Lightning 2 (Lightning Cover +1.5)
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Game Flow: A tight-checking first period transitions into special teams battles. Florida’s depth (Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett) breaks through late, but Vasilevskiy’s heroics keep it close.
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Key Moment: A critical third-period penalty kill by Tampa shifts momentum, but the Panthers capitalize on a defensive lapse to seal it.
What to Watch For
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Guentzel vs. Forsling: Can Florida’s top defenseman Gustav Forsling contain Guentzel’s relentless forecheck?
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Power Play Opportunities: Tampa must convert if given chances; Florida’s PK needs to reset.
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Third-Period Intensity: The Panthers led the NHL with 54 third-period goals-will they strike late again?
Final Thoughts
The Panthers remain favorites, but the Lightning’s resilience and Vasilevskiy’s brilliance make +1.5 a prudent choice. Expect a physical, low-scoring game where every shift matters. While Florida’s championship experience might edge them ahead, Tampa’s fight to keep it close makes this a nail-biter worth watching.
PICK: Lightning +1.5
